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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards


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I find an ironic observation that people who don't receive severe weather in their very own back yard are the ones who complain about unwarranted met office warnings...... The met office amber wa

130 photos taken this evening. Have attached the ones I consider decent enough to share. Apologies for some of the scratches and marks on the pictures; my camera body needs a damn good clean.  Th

Hi guys, First post here. Hope you enjoy. Here's the view in Brighton looking south east a moment ago. No processing/filtering on this image either.

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5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Cumulus development, cumulus mediocris.

lol.....love that cloud name...a cloud that can't be arsed.....I'm going to use it in conversation....." I had a few beers last night, didn't get much sleep so I feel a bit cumulus mediocris" lol

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1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

lol.....love that cloud name...a cloud that can't be arsed.....I'm going to use it in conversation....." I had a few beers last night, didn't get much sleep so I feel a bit cumulus mediocris" lol

What's wrong with Cumulus crapus??

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56 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

This is just one extreme event over India that you are focusing it on and extrapolating it as some kind of worldwide phenomenon when the evidence isn't there. There were probably many other severe storm events in recent decades gone by so you can't conclude that lightning is getting more frequent from such a small sample size of storms. In fact, some of the latest research suggests the opposite.

https://www.leeds.ac.uk/news/article/4185/lightning_storms_less_likely_in_a_warming_planet

Anyway don't wanna drag this off topic. 

You are not listening.

The indian Studies show that years, like 2010, that show abnormal numbers of strikes will signal that the outbreak will continue in kind i.e. if the ingredients causing the anomaly stay the same then the results will be the same. I did not think it rocket science?

And again, April and May have shown repeated anomalously strong storms/dust storms over India/Pakistan this year so 'multiple events' across an 8 week window.

They started strong and continued in suit.

Across Europe we have also seen a strong start to the summer storm season.

 I'm not citing a link between the Subcontinent and Europe only a link between severe storms that are being fed by a certain set up will continue in kind until those forcings are changed.

I am sure once the storms set off we will again be seeing elevated numbers of strikes as we are still under the forcing that we were in earlier in the week with a strong drift of air out of Africa passing over the Med. and through western Europe.

And 'Yes' , you can expect a "told you so!" if I am correct?

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wow so many heavy and torrential downpours starting across the SW, and the heat continues to build... the sun is intermittently pouring through the clouds and besides the clouds.. Amber warning for 4pm + .. are we expecting these widespread showers to not only be imported but also merge with home grown storms? 

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*Mid - Day Up Date* (Self Forecast)

*Early elevated convection was only weakly electrified, degrading far quicker that initially forecasted. The remaining cloud cover, in line with model trends has lead to the shift of the MDT region, covering more of Wales and removing parts of the South West. The SLGT region has been extended to cover North Wales, while being removed from the far SE. This doesn't relate to the severity of the storms, isolated storms still may produce frequent lightning, large hail and excessive rainfall within the SLGT region!* 

image.thumb.png.d589f20ebc4160e49b5ba8a7b34e0bc0.png

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Took a half day at work. Heading down south towards Cotswolds/SW Midlands. Stopped off near Solihull at Hopwood Services on M42 and the sun is out here amongst lots of cumulus. Temperature and dewpoint currently 22c/16c and it feels very humid. 

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2 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

*Mid - Day Up Date* (Self Forecast)

*Early elevated convection was only weakly electrified, degrading far quicker that initially forecasted. The remaining cloud cover, in line with model trends has lead to the shift of the MDT region, covering more of Wales and removing parts of the South West. The SLGT region has been extended to cover North Wales, while being removed from the far SE. This doesn't relate to the severity of the storms, isolated storms still may produce frequent lightning, large hail and excessive rainfall within the SLGT region!* 

image.thumb.png.d589f20ebc4160e49b5ba8a7b34e0bc0.png

I wonder will any elevated convection head to E Ireland after exiting Wales

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1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

India/Pakistan have been hammered by storms through May ( 250 deaths so far) and their lightening has been pretty epic. Their studies into extreme Lightening years don't show a pattern other than if it sets off with elevated strikes then the season will generally follow with enhanced strike rates.

As such I'd expect another mighty light show from anything that develops as the strike rates so far this year ( including the April storms that moved up the Eastern side of the country?) seem to be showing enhanced rates?

You are not listening.

Because your post is confusing

The indian Studies show that years, like 2010, that show abnormal numbers of strikes will signal that the outbreak will continue in kind i.e. if the ingredients causing the anomaly stay the same then the results will be the same. I did not think it rocket science?

In other words anomalous patterns increase the chances of anomalously large thunderstorms?...

And again, April and May have shown repeated anomalously strong storms/dust storms over India/Pakistan this year so 'multiple events' across an 8 week window.

They started strong and continued in suit.

Across Europe we have also seen a strong start to the summer storm season.

 I'm not citing a link between the Subcontinent and Europe only a link between severe storms that are being fed by a certain set up will continue in kind until those forcings are changed.

Storm formation is far more complicated then that there are many more processes involved. Look at the Leeds study I linked to you. Just because we have had a few active storms in the UK this year don't mean they all will be. Plenty of Spanish plumes in the past have turned out to be a bust.

I am sure once the storms set off we will again be seeing elevated numbers of strikes as we are still under the forcing that we were in earlier in the week with a strong drift of air out of Africa passing over the Med. and through western Europe.

Who is to say that if the same pattern in the 1950s occurred it wouldn't produce as many lightning strikes as now?

And 'Yes' , you can expect a "told you so!" if I am correct?

Given you were suggesting the UK would turn into Tornado alley in the climate thread a few months ago, I have my doubts...

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39 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

That’s false my predictions haven’t been vague and I’ve always kept to them if you want to take the time to look back at previous posts I’ve done then you will find I was in fact correct on two separate occasions your comment was unnecessary and rude.

[Stepping carefully over the eggshells]

Do you think we will have storms inland today? Say - around the M4 areas?

I am genuinely interested on your thoughts, just would like a few specifics.

?

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Just now, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

I have bugs flying around my back garden and have red and brown shield 

Tom this post isn't destined for the Convective/Storm Discussion thread and moreso the Regional threads.

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12 minutes ago, Super_Uwe said:

Looking at NW France - nice line of showers forming to the NE of Brest, should we be keeping an eye on them at all?

one thing I've learnt over the years is if you want a spectacular frontal display, always keep your eye on *ahem* 'Brest' ??

 

I'm talking about the weather you pervs.....lol

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10 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

so, what's the chances that there are already lightning strikes and thunder in the showers we have but they're too small for our ears, eyes and detectors to pick up ? 

Lol I like this idea a lot - like when you shine a remote control into your phone camera and you can see it there, but not with the naked eye ?

If this is true maybe there’s a tiny severe supercell happening right now right next to us and we don’t even know it ?

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23 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

25c suns out very humid.... off to Buxton I go... hoping for thunderstorms tonight...not getting hopes up as only rain yesterday but hoping for a few got shots of lightening....

New thermometer required? 4-7C higher than anything in your area......

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