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Supacell

Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

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23 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Some of those rain totals are likely to be in areas  that have already seen 50, 60 and 70mm of rain. What started out to be a dry month, some are looking at two months of rain in the space of a few days! 😮

2 out of 3 of those charts have Weston right under the heaviest rainfall. Weston has escaped anything stormy so far, instead just getting cloudy drizzly mess. The 3rd chart(last one) has it all missing Weston altogether! I wonder which one will be right? 

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*Self Forecast (Produced By Myself)

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 6:00 UTC Thurs 31 May 2018 - 11:59 UTC Thurs 31 May 2018

There is reasonable signs (model consensus) for an area of elevated convection to be drifting across S/SE at the beginning of the forecast period, continuing to migrate NW - wards through the day. Questionable as to the extent of organisation, with forecast profiles presenting limited wind shear across the risk zone. Subtle weakening is likely as the convection transfers NW - wards, due to weakening mid level instability. Despite minimal wind shear, storms will have frequent lightning and *occasional hail*(Largely SE). Storms have the potential to produce local disruption with flash flooding, with precipitable water values >30 mm. Elevated convection could transfer into surface based (root in boundary level) as the trough extends NW - wards, though this could be a messy transition and is currently regarded to be unlikely due to excessive cloud cover (hence subtle weakening on NW - wards trajectory favored).  

Behind the trough, insolation will yield around 1000 J/kg of CAPE (1,500 J/kg GFS). This will potentially lead to the development of isolated thunderstorms, again producing; frequent lightning, occasional hail and substantial local rainfall. Any one region could see a storm, though development is dependent on the progress of the earlier convective activity. 

 

 

Edited by MattTarrant

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3 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

parts of the south west look good for tomorrow...hard to pin a specific location, but east of Devon, near say Newton Poppleford looks good.......ever been there or have relatives there?

 

 

 

edit....Nice forecast @MattTarrant.....ties in with current modelling

The Somerset, Dorset & Wiltshire region look favorable, though given the time range there is sufficient wiggle room to migrate the main risk areas west or east. 

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1 minute ago, Supacell said:

What is going on in here?!? This thread is normally a friendly place where people who all share an interest of storms congregate. It is not a place for arguments! I have just got back in from work to catch up on the afternoons updates and feel like I have been transported into a creche. Come on, lets keep it friendly or posts will be disappear.

Very well put I've just come on here and seen all this disagreement stuff.

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8 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

parts of the south west look good for tomorrow...hard to pin a specific location, but east of Devon, near say Newton Poppleford looks good.......ever been there or have relatives there?

 

 

 

edit....Nice forecast @MattTarrant.....ties in with current modelling

Rumours of sleet falling in Newton Poppleford, earlier this afternoon?:shok:

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Rumours of sleet falling in Newton Poppleford, earlier this afternoon?:shok:

What with those towers going up everywhere?

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5 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

What with those towers going up everywhere?

Indeed. Sleet can fall straight from ACcas in them thar parts!👍

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Been out with dog very thundery feel out there but no sleet or petty gfuqhgfpjhing ,lol

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45 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

parts of the south west look good for tomorrow...hard to pin a specific location, but east of Devon, near say Newton Poppleford looks good.......ever been there or have relatives there?

 

 

 

edit....Nice forecast @MattTarrant.....ties in with current modelling

William Grimsley!  

 

40 minutes ago, Supacell said:

What is going on in here?!? This thread is normally a friendly place where people who all share an interest of storms congregate. It is not a place for arguments! I have just got back in from work to catch up on the afternoons updates and feel like I have been transported into a creche. Come on, lets keep it friendly or posts will be disappear.

I love storms I wish everyone storms this week! :D :bomb::bomb:

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1 hour ago, Neglectedchicken said:

I think they'll extend the warning further tonight

Yes and western parts will be removed by morning. Midlands northwards, southern/eastern england in firing line me thinks

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I'm stunned. The clouds are moving in a completely different direction to their preferred N to S. There ought to be a warning about it....😁

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1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

There’s a lot of acas too

Towering acas

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met office weather Forecast South and west 

Outlook for Friday to Sunday. Friday will bring more sunshine and isolated heavy, thundery showers. Saturday and Sunday will be dry and sunny. Remaining warm throughout the period.

Edited by Tom dewey likes thunder

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Just now, Neglectedchicken said:

I have a feeling there will be some scattered thunderstorms tonight

What makes you believe that?

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1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It’s feeling quite fresh in godalming at the moment. Wasn’t expecting that?

Really @Flash bang flash bang etc? Feels much more humid here again this evening compared with the last couple of days. That could just be from all the rain recently,  but either way fresh it is not.

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