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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Agreed Marpantz: the fact that I didn't get any thunder, last night, hardly makes the Met's warnings rubbish...

I did get thunder and lightning and I wasn't in the warning. In fact the most intense part was never in the warning  

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In regards to the Met Office Warning area, the 3 High-Res models of NMM, AROME and EURO4 all show a similar area at risk.

It's very rare I see the purple colours show up over the UK on EURO4 from my experience.

Thursday.thumb.gif.a5095ff9ff194bdf5171a0ec476d2a9c.gif1684283518_ThursdayArome.thumb.png.534dfae11853a61d63b784ff660f7885.png1854425297_ThursdayNMM.thumb.png.34014dec5d11be44d40f27006787e5fc.png

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3 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

I did get thunder and lightning and I wasn't in the warning. In fact the most intense part was never in the warning  

Aye, but that nearly always happens; Met O's warning are more for guidance than for minute-by-minute accuracy...? Anyway, what makes you think that the warnings for Friday are wrong? Please don't get me wrong, as you may well be right.:good:

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2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

In regards to the Met Office Warning area, the 3 High-Res models of NMM, AROME and EURO4 all show a similar area at risk.

It's very rare I see the purple colours show up over the UK on EURO4 from my experience.

Thursday.thumb.gif.a5095ff9ff194bdf5171a0ec476d2a9c.gif1684283518_ThursdayArome.thumb.png.534dfae11853a61d63b784ff660f7885.png1854425297_ThursdayNMM.thumb.png.34014dec5d11be44d40f27006787e5fc.png

I saw CAPE charts for tomorrow and other charts like that, that someone posted and they showed nothing in that spot. They showed more central. 

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2 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

I'm not saying it's rubbish or anything. I got a thunderstorm this morning with intense rainfall and I wasn't in the warning area at all. I also saw those guys who do those convective forecasts taking about North and Central UK. They also said birmingham is a good spot. I swear you just want to argue with me and cause things to go off topic. 

I'm just saying what I've seen I don't need or want a response from you everytime. 

Arg! please stop arguing with ppl 😩

I use this forum for a bit of on topic banter and for genuine observations and thoughts on the convective potential of weather systems in the U.K...

If you partake and you make wild or unfounded statements expect people to bring you up on it - it’s called debate and it’s how these forums work!

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye, but that nearly always happens; Met O's warning are more for guidance than for minute-by-minute accuracy...? Anyway, what makes you think that the warnings for Friday are wrong? Please don't get me wrong, as you may well be right.:good:

Someone else said Friday, I'm talking about tomorrow. 

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3 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

I saw CAPE charts for tomorrow and other charts like that, that someone posted and they showed nothing in that spot. They showed more central. 

Just because an area shows high CAPE, that doesn't necessarily show where thunderstorms will form.

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5 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

I saw CAPE charts for tomorrow and other charts like that, that someone posted and they showed nothing in that spot. They showed more central. 

Wheres theres cape doesnt necessarily mean theres storms. Looks like West is best tomorrow and more southern areas in terms of thunderstorm activity.

Edited by pad199207

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16 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

That ol' chestnut! I have seen similar comments hundreds of times on here, and it's usually because the said person is not in the warning zones. The Met Office have done a great job thus far - I haven't seen any other forecasts that have contradicted theirs.

Feel free to post some evidence and charts, of course. :)

And a storm is a small scale weather event ,very hit and miss or in my case always miss .

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1 minute ago, Swansonson69 said:

I don't care what you have to say, you're just annoying. 

You need to take stock of what's going on here, people aren't posting to wind you up. Even the most avid and experienced weather enthusiasts get frustrated at times when thing don't turn out like they or the forecast expected. Reacting negatively to people with clearly a lot more knowledge/experience than yourself is not going to help you or help improve your understanding of the drivers behind our weather.   

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9 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Currently on the train near Esher and dark skies to my SW

I think your find that's called clag and probably doesn't belong in the convective reports thread lol

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20 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

In regards to the Met Office Warning area, the 3 High-Res models of NMM, AROME and EURO4 all show a similar area at risk.

It's very rare I see the purple colours show up over the UK on EURO4 from my experience.

Thursday.thumb.gif.a5095ff9ff194bdf5171a0ec476d2a9c.gif1684283518_ThursdayArome.thumb.png.534dfae11853a61d63b784ff660f7885.png1854425297_ThursdayNMM.thumb.png.34014dec5d11be44d40f27006787e5fc.png

Some of those rain totals are likely to be in areas  that have already seen 50, 60 and 70mm of rain. What started out to be a dry month, some are looking at two months of rain in the space of a few days! 😮

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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Some of those rain totals are likely to be in areas  that have already seen 50, 60 and 70mm of rain. What started out to be a dry month, some are looking at two months of rain in the space of a few days! 😮

While not great for those that have already been dumped on to the tune of 50-70MM and while flash flooding is a real threat again tomorrow one saving grace is that the high totals have been over a small geographical area so wider spread flooding issues have been averted.

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Caught the anvil of that small cell over NE France whilst on a walk 

 

 

IMG_1053[1].JPG

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38 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

The warning for Thursday looks wrong as well. I believe both Thursday and Friday the storms form more north and central UK. At least that's what I'm seeing so far. 

Met office always seems to contradict what everyone else is saying. It's very strange. 

That's true, the warnings are always too south limiting out northern areas even though northern areas are at risk for the upcoming days. On Friday there is more rain in the radar for eastern parts however met office are focusing on the western parts. Weird.

 

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5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I think your find that's called clag and probably doesn't belong in the convective reports thread lol

It looks low and foreboding but i’m Nowhere near it now

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27 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye, but that nearly always happens; Met O's warning are more for guidance than for minute-by-minute accuracy...? Anyway, what makes you think that the warnings for Friday are wrong? Please don't get me wrong, as you may well be right.:good:

 

26 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

Someone else said Friday, I'm talking about tomorrow. 

I said Friday. My reason for this was because the radar is showing more heavy,persistent and organised rainfall showing to the eastern side of the Uk however the Met Office havee warnings in force for the western side ...

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3 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

That is exactly what I'm saying. The charts I saw didn't show anything in most of those warning areas. I get the rain totals but not all those places have had loads of rain. 

Another thing to remember is that not all Thunderstorms will generate a warning, while a shower that generates a single lightning discharge is clearly a threat should that strike hit someone the type of showers you experienced where not severe enough or widespread enough to warrant a warning in your area.

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27 minutes ago, pad199207 said:

Wheres theres cape doesnt necessarily mean theres storms. Looks like West is best tomorrow and more southern areas in terms of thunderstorm activity.

Why are you suggesting the west to receive more thunder potential ?

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51 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

That ol' chestnut! I have seen similar comments hundreds of times on here, and it's usually because the said person is not in the warning zones. The Met Office have done a great job thus far - I haven't seen any other forecasts that have contradicted theirs.

Feel free to post some evidence and charts, of course. :)

Agreed. And how anyone can claim they're going to be wrong in the future is beyond me

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6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Another thing to remember is that not all Thunderstorms will generate a warning, while a shower that generates a single lightning discharge is clearly a threat should that strike hit someone the type of showers you experienced where not severe enough or widespread enough to warrant a warning in your area.

I know but I'd extend the warning because of the rain if anything. 

Just the 5 minutes of heavy rain I got today caused flooding on the road at the front of my house. 

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