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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

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Two more cells have passed through here recently, both producing thunder and lightning. Another just about to hit :)

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There does seem to be a re-intensification of showers going on now. It's hard to say how long it will last, but it'd be good if some of them made it down to Exeter! That's certainly the direction many are heading, it's whether they sustain this energy that's less certain

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11 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

What are the chances for us? I'm not feeling it at the moment

Wouldn’t discount a flash or two, but certainly nothing on par with Saturday nights amazing display. But with this setup, surface conditions are irrelevant, it’s the upper levels that are destabilising, seemingly ahead of the former Dutch storm. I’d say anywhere from Possibly Lincs, across the East Midlands, East Anglia Southwards, perhaps parts of the SW too could well see a few flashes. 

Edit: A random storm has just recently cropped up near saffron Walden heading over towards Bedfordshire now. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

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The sferics on radar are appearing a clusters of 3-4 strikes at once, by my reckoning these indicate large and sprawling forked lightning bolts but it’s unlikely they’ll be visible because of low cloud and because they are quite elevated in the destabilising layer.

What you’ll most likely see is sheet lightning with several pulses each time

Where you can see the forks themselves (should they occur) you’ll probably see some spectacular lightning albeit fairly infrequent

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
My phone misspells everything 😬

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10 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Wouldn’t discount a flash or two, but certainly nothing on par with Saturday nights amazing display. But with this setup, surface conditions are irrelevant, it’s the upper levels that are destabilising, seemingly ahead of the former Dutch storm. I’d say anywhere from Possibly Lincs, across the East Midlands, East Anglia Southwards, perhaps parts of the SW too could well see a few flashes. 

Edit: A random storm has just recently cropped up near saffron Walden heading over towards Bedfordshire now. 

incredible precipitation center on the saffron walden cell!

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Rain looks rather intense in the early hours of Wednesday for the east pushing into central ?? 

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1 minute ago, Neglectedchicken said:

Slowly decaying

i'm not sure,. may'be over your area,. the main storm has decayed,. but overall its expanded and now has a few intense centers to it. 
We could be looking all night at this and wondering will it truly die,. but doesn't seem like it (entirely)

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4 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

i'm not sure,. may'be over your area,. the main storm has decayed,. but overall its expanded and now has a few intense centers to it. 
We could be looking all night at this and wondering will it truly die,. but doesn't seem like it (entirely)

I was considering the main part, however I can see it has expanded and looking to keep doing so continuously

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Thunderstorm approaching Didcot now lit up!

Edited by ancientsolar
accuracy

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It feels like the temperature is rising here in Retford and it's becoming increasingly humid. 

Edited by Swansonson69

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I think it'll be at least a few hours until we see anything here in the Midlands. Seems to have not really travelled West but heading SW down the country. 

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1 minute ago, Josh Rubio said:

I think it'll be at least a few hours until we see anything here in the Midlands. Seems to have not really travelled West but heading SW down the country. 

Winds ahead of the showery rain and thunderstorms are from a northeasterly that can make it look like rain is traveling south west but the actual band itself is moving west northwest like I stated earlier on 🙂

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2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

There isn’t really much to see it’s very sparse and very pulse-like in nature

It will get more organised in the next few hours as it continues to push west northwest in the next few hours.

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Just now, jordan smith said:

It will get more organised in the next few hours as it continues to push west northwest in the next few hours.

Seems like everyone has given up already apart from us two. 

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1 minute ago, Swansonson69 said:

Seems like everyone has given up already apart from us two. 

Yep they are not realising that it will take a few more hours until more organisation takes place I still think I’ve got the evolution nailed on for the morning.

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1 minute ago, jordan smith said:

Yep they are not realising that it will take a few more hours until more organisation takes place I still think I’ve got the evolution nailed on for the morning.

I think you have as well. Just got to sit back and watch now. 

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I think some of you are getting over-excited. Lightning was only ever going to be sporadic in nature, and the further West you are, the less likely you'll see any.

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