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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

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3 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Aye, it would be nice to have storms here. But so long as I get even just one night storm this Summer whether it's in June or July that'll do me

do you think Lincolnshire will get any storms tonight or even this week only us are missing out :(

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Just now, Neglectedchicken said:

do you think Lincolnshire will get any storms tonight or even this week only us are missing out :(

I personally doubt it, I reckon Thursday we could stand a better chance

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1 minute ago, TJS1998Tom said:

I personally doubt it, I reckon Thursday we could stand a better chance

Yeah same Thursday looking the best for us , midnight tonight into the morning is looking possible don't you think?

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Bare in mind the steering flow will change subtlety from tonight storms will push west northwest then any storms behind it tomorrow will be pushing north northwest

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Just now, Neglectedchicken said:

Yeah same Thursday looking the best for us , midnight tonight into the morning is looking possible don't you think?

I stated that in my previous posts on the track they are likely to take if you want to take a look. ☺️

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These storms coming off the continent are killing our sunshine, and by the time they move into western areas will contain little if any electrical activity anyway. East is best at the moment

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 30 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 31 May 2018

ISSUED 19:17 UTC Tue 29 May 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

The remnants of Tuesday nights elevated convection will continue to drift westwards across much of southern and central Britain. However, the mid-level instability will be generally be gone and lapse rates remain weak so lightning is considered only a very slow risk.  

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-05-30

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1 minute ago, jordan smith said:

I stated that in my previous posts on the track they are likely to take if you want to take a look. ☺️

Checking it out now :)

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The storms have decided moved substantially fast from Amsterdam and very close off the Norfolk coast?!

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Just now, Neglectedchicken said:

The storms have decided moved substantially fast from Amsterdam and very close off the Norfolk coast?!

My track takes it into east anglia and southeast England by 10 or 11 this evening before pushing west northwest.

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5 minutes ago, Neglectedchicken said:

The storms have decided moved substantially fast from Amsterdam and very close off the Norfolk coast?!

Not that close, it's taking forever compared to the speed it crossed Holland. Electrical activity not as intense as over the land.

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Just to clarify that those North Sea storms will have much less of a northerly track by the time they reach shore - also despite being elevated they can’t (and won’t) go on forever regardless of how immune they are to the sea so we will see a weakening trend as they progress.

Dont want to be a party pooper but I’m a bit worried those in the North might be reading too much into them, although it would be wonderful if I was wrong.

Looking at the track of the comparatively tiny cells we currently have in the U.K. they are headed westwards, if not a little southerly too. However storms in France are headed on a northerly track so it depends which one wins out.

Best of luck to everyone but as much as the forecasts are quite general and have in recent days made a few miscalculations none of the ones I read say about monster overnight storms in the U.K., at least not for the North anyway 😁

 

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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Getting the odd rumble of thunder..But checking the radar I see nothing near me..

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Very scattered, reckon the lightning activity will die out when the main bulk gets closer to UK 

image.thumb.png.a5d511792c225f8dce582c2275da8275.png

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1 minute ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Not that close, it's taking forever compared to the speed it crossed Holland. Electrical activity not as intense as over the land.

Yeah true, but there was a big jump considering the slow track over the past hours. Do you personally think it will make it far inland or die down?

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Just now, TJS1998Tom said:

Very scattered, reckon the lightning activity will die out when the main bulk gets closer to UK 

image.thumb.png.a5d511792c225f8dce582c2275da8275.png

That's what I reckon, unless a miracle happens :)

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Just now, Neglectedchicken said:

Yeah true, but there was a big jump considering the slow track over the past hours. Do you personally think it will make it far inland or die down?

How electrified it will be is uncertain but what I know is the rain will become much more organized once it pushes inland after 10 this evening I assure you that it will

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3 minutes ago, Chi-gareth said:

Getting the odd rumble of thunder..But checking the radar I see nothing near me..

Where you located?

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i'm sure kent didn't that tail of thunderstorms hitting it dead on,. looks like a provoked attack on the radar o,o

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No showers.. Boom heavy showers in 5 minutes

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2 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

How electrified it will be is uncertain but what I know is the rain will become much more organized once it pushes inland after 10 this evening I assure you that it will

there is not that much cape left for tonight either

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1 minute ago, Neglectedchicken said:

there is not that much cape left for tonight either

Mixed layer, there is..

viewimage.thumb.png.e32b4c2abbf468313a8326b2b79d1290.png

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