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Supacell

Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

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16 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yeah a forecast for dry sunny weather because that was the most likely option but a small chance of getting caught up in a line of thunderstorms hence the warning. Is it really that hard?

There wasn't a small chance mentioned in the forecast. Just dry sunny all day with that funny percent thing 0% rain..... That's the point you can't understand for some reason.

Anyway back on subject the storm seems to be dying down a wee bit.

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Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yeah a forecast for dry sunny weather because that was the most likely option but a small chance of getting caught up in a line of thunderstorms hence the warning. Is it really that hard?

The comments made ('The PIT') highlight the difficult position the Met Office hold in the UK. Comments made about contradiction also bemuses me, the Met Office is not an organisation compiled to support the enthusiasm of forum users! In essence there job is forecasting in relation to public safety, hence the often broad nature of warnings and occasional deviation away from other organisational forecasts. It often infuriates me when people compare warnings and automated forecasts in the same sentence, I feel there is a real need for a learning area on this forum, one that teaches the basic inferences that can be made from automated forecasts in conjunction with warnings or associated storm forecasts! 

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1 minute ago, The PIT said:

There wasn't a small chance mentioned in the forecast. Just dry sunny all day with that funny percent thing 0% rain..... That's the point you can't understand for some reason.

Anyway back on subject the storm seems to be dying down a wee bit.

Let’s calm down a bit guys let’s enjoy this convective stuff instead of arguing there’s no point.

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Too much sun here last 3 days i’m getting sun  fatigue. It’s unbearable when you’re out in it for too long.  At least it only got to 23°C today. 

 Late tomorrow and Thursday still looking like a lot of potential for this region but Met are not interested again. Can’t really trust their text forecasts though now after the last few days fales. 

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Just now, Swansonson69 said:

Looks like it's all dying. 

something fired up again SW London

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1 minute ago, Swansonson69 said:

Looks like it's all dying. 

Yeah top part is but south east part still has a feed of energy coming in so should develop more.

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10 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

The comments made ('The PIT') highlight the difficult position the Met Office hold in the UK. Comments made about contradiction also bemuses me, the Met Office is not an organisation compiled to support the enthusiasm of forum users! In essence there job is forecasting in relation to public safety, hence the often broad nature of warnings and occasional deviation away from other organisational forecasts. It often infuriates me when people compare warnings and automated forecasts in the same sentence, I feel there is a real need for a learning area on this forum, one that teaches the basic inferences that can be made from automated forecasts in conjunction with warnings or associated storm forecasts! 

 I think the problem is when the text forecasts which have human input are compared  with the warnings. 

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The rain has just pushed away from Aylesbury we’ve had 17mm of rain in about 3 hours which is still a lot 😊

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4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 I think the problem is when the text forecasts which have human input are compared  with the warnings. 

Next time it comes up I'll post the forecast to show what you what I mean.

Anyways latest GFS shows the best chance of anything for us to be Friday just too far north on Thursday again.

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1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

 I think the problem is when the text forecasts which have human input are compared  with the warnings. 

Yes that is another area of concern, these issues could be discussed within a learning section of the forum. 'Basic model interpretation techniques & automated/text forecast use'...has a ring to it 😁. Anyway, enough conversation around this, do not want to clutter this thread.

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21 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

The comments made ('The PIT') highlight the difficult position the Met Office hold in the UK. Comments made about contradiction also bemuses me, the Met Office is not an organisation compiled to support the enthusiasm of forum users! In essence there job is forecasting in relation to public safety, hence the often broad nature of warnings and occasional deviation away from other organisational forecasts. It often infuriates me when people compare warnings and automated forecasts in the same sentence, I feel there is a real need for a learning area on this forum, one that teaches the basic inferences that can be made from automated forecasts in conjunction with warnings or associated storm forecasts! 

It’s true what you’re saying, it’s just for the general public who probably have very little if any knowledge behind the real dynamics of storms. They would not be able to for example distinguish the difference between a surface based and an elevated storm for example, it’s just a storm to them! Same goes with windshear, cape shear and mixing ratios etc!! 

If you’re after as much detail as possible, head to estofex, Nick Finnis or convective weather and hi resolution models. Your average joe would yet again have no idea about them! 

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Lets stick to convective discussion please, there is plenty to be talking about regarding storms and not accuracy or not of weather forecasts👍

Edited by Supacell

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Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

It’s true what you’re saying, it’s just for the general public who probably have very little if any knowledge behind the real dynamics of storms. They would not be able to for example distinguish the difference between a surface based and an elevated storm for example, it’s just a storm to them! Same goes with windshear, cape shear and mixing ratios etc!! 

If you’re after as much detail as possible, head to estofex, Nick Finnis or convective weather and hi resolution models. Your average joe would yet again have no idea about them! 

Cape shear ,good  film that 👍🏿

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Thursday looking very very interesting for some parts of the UK

Initially S Wales and S England looks to be the prime focus for thunderstorms

Netweather GFS Image

but as the afternoon wears on, these spread N to affect more of England and Wales

Netweather GFS Image

By evening, they've made their way into southern parts of N England

Netweather GFS Image

Available energy looks good

Netweather GFS Image

Surface based CAPE available well into the evening period

Netweather GFS Image

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I need some storms in Retford, it's been humid for far too long now. 

Edited by Swansonson69

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3 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

I need some storms in Retford, it's been humid for far too long now. 

wait your turn...some of us are higher up in the queue 😜

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 I see Lincolnshire storm shield is in place for Thursday looking at that run ;) jokes lol. Should be an interesting watch. Still got to see what June and July brings yet so early days

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1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

wait your turn...some of us are higher up in the queue 😜

It’s unusual for me in Aylesbury to get three sets of thunderstorm activity in just a few days I’ve kinda been lucky 🍀 sorry to people who’ve missed out!

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7 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

I need some storms in Retford, it's been humid for far too long now. 

Move to Sheffield you won't see any storms but it's nice and fresh with the long draw off the north sea. Felt fresh when the temps nudged 25C. Anyway fingers crossed for Friday here.

Edited by The PIT

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1 minute ago, The PIT said:

Move to Sheffield you won't see any storms but it's nice and fresh with the long draw off the north sea. Felt fresh when the temps nudged 25C. Any fingers crossed for Friday here.

You can have a storm if we can get some blooming sunshine 😕

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2 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

You can have a storm if we can get some blooming sunshine 😕

Deal.

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13 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

wait your turn...some of us are higher up in the queue 😜

Who says you're higher then me in the queue? Lol. 

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