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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

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23 minutes ago, nanu said:

Travelling NE, doubt it will hit you,, unless something kicks off on the northern edge of it,, Birmingham in firing line tho,,, sorry Nwest

I hope it makes it up here but none of the forecasts are showing rain for here today .

Netweather forecast showing storms for here tomorrow night overnight and then another batch Thursday evening .

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2 minutes ago, Mr_ Nexus said:

I hope it makes it up here but none of the forecasts are showing rain for here today .

Netweather forecast showing storms for here tomorrow night overnight and then another batch Thursday evening .

Yep i agree  think Brum maybe to far North   to be fair only just drying out from the last deluge 

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I was under a warning yesterday when nearist action was 70 miles away. Just so the Met could take the p**s again!

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1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

I was under a warning yesterday when nearist action was 70 miles away. Just so the Met could take the p**s again!

Even better when the met forecast has a yellow warning for your area on the local forecast and has you down for sunshine and dry at the same time. Totally stupid insane forecasting. 

Anyways looks like Birmingham possibly and Bristol in the firing line later.

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2 hours ago, Swansonson69 said:

Honestly, I don't think anyone expected this. We all thought this would all die in the channel. 

No I said my likely track and I thought it would maintain intensity seems I was right.

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Just now, jordan smith said:

No I said my likely track and I thought it would maintain intensity seems I was right.

It's gone further north then what you said as well. 

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2 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

It's gone further north then what you said as well. 

I said the northern limit probably being the south midlands southern east anglia and that is exactly what is happening if you look back at my posts.

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1 minute ago, jordan smith said:

I said the northern limit probably being the south midlands southern east anglia and that is exactly what is happening if you look back at my posts.

True, it's going dark here. 

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2 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

True, it's going dark here. 

I think it’s closely followed my track if you compare 😊

0344AF2A-A74F-4E02-A8D1-7B8D87F5AE00.png

BF2FF337-41AA-4D1B-8559-FD40355B7539.png

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Saw a flash of lightning and a rumble of thunder a couple minutes ago probably from the dark red bit passing trough Aylesbury from the east 

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18 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Even better when the met forecast has a yellow warning for your area on the local forecast and has you down for sunshine and dry at the same time. Totally stupid insane forecasting. 

Anyways looks like Birmingham possibly and Bristol in the firing line later.

What is the problem with that? A small number of forecasts may have gone for the storms forming in a line in another area so the possibility may have been there? 

Storms like the Birmingham one on Sunday and the one in Kent today can be dangerous so better safe then sorry. Everyone knows you cannot precisely pinpoint exactly where showers form.

Just because you didn't get the storm forming in your area doesn't mean you should criticise the warnings issued with the potential risk to life flooding from these storms can bring. Totally stupid insane posting.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

What is the problem with that? A small number of forecasts may have gone for the storms forming in a line in another area so the possibility may have been there? 

Storms like the Birmingham one on Sunday and the one in Kent today can be dangerous so better safe then sorry. Everyone knows you cannot precisely pinpoint exactly where showers form.

Just because you didn't get the storm forming in your area doesn't mean you should criticise the warnings issued potential risk to life flooding from these storms can bring. Totally stupid insane posting.

Just read the post please "a forecast for dry sunny weather and at the same time a yellow warning in the same forecast for severe weather"

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 29 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 30 May 2018

ISSUED 15:23 UTC Tue 29 May 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris
 

***Update 1515z***

Following trends this afternoon, and model data for overnight, the SLIGHT area has been extended to the north and west of its initial area. It is expanded west to cater for ongoing thunderstorms at 15z, and northwards due to the potential for lightning associated with mid-level convection that will move into East Anglia around midnight and through the early hours of Wednesday. 
 
A complicated set-up with combination of mid-level instability drifting back into southern Britain and warm, humid conditions by the afternoon that will lead to surface based convection.
 
ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...  
 
Southeastern England
 
Elevated convection that will drift in by the end of Monday night will bring the risk of some lighting across Kent, Essex and perhaps into parts of Suffolk and London, before weakening into mid-morning. This is marginal for lightning frequency post 06z on Tuesday. 
 
DAYTIME...
 
Southwestern Ireland, southern England, southern Wales
 
Mid-level instability will be present across southern parts of England, but surface based convection will struggle to develop despite CAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg due to a capping inversion around 800mb along with some drier mid-level air. That being said, widely distributed isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern England and Wales. It should be stressed that most areas will remain dry. If a specific area can be highlighted more confidently an upgrade to slight may be made. The strongest signal for surface based thunderstorms will be across southwestern Ireland, and a slight risk has been issued for that area. 
 
OVERNIGHT...
 
Southern England
 
A fresh round of mid-level instability will spread out of the continent from the southeast to northwest overnight. Mid-level convection is possible quite widely from southeastern England into East Anglia and the Midlands by the end of the night. It remains uncertain how electrically active this round of mid-level instability will be. A slight risk is included for the far southeast as it arrives, but further northwest the risk remains isolated for now. 
 
 

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Just now, The PIT said:

Just read the post please "a forecast for dry sunny weather and at the same time a yellow warning in the same forecast for severe weather"

Yeah a forecast for dry sunny weather because that was the most likely option but a small chance of getting caught up in a line of thunderstorms hence the warning. Is it really that hard?

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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

What is the problem with that? A small number of forecasts may have gone for the storms forming in a line in another area so the possibility may have been there? 

Storms like the Birmingham one on Sunday and the one in Kent today can be dangerous so better safe then sorry. Everyone knows you cannot precisely pinpoint exactly where showers form.

Just because you didn't get the storm forming in your area doesn't mean you should criticise the warnings issued potential risk to life flooding from these storms can bring. Totally stupid insane posting.

I don’t think anyone should knock the forecasters at all - but there is an abundance of warning out there and depending on where you read it the forecasts contradict each other a lot.

I think this confusion is causing a lot of frustration amongst ppl who either love or hate storms, because it’s no help when trying to plan a chase, or an outdoor event, or I imagine any job where you have a risk from lightning or flash flooding...

This whole week must be a nightmare to try to even begin to predict - doesn’t seem to be following the usual patterns, at all so I think credit where credit’s due - but I can understand people’s frustration after the week (and day) we’ve just had. Also there’s plenty more to come which is gonna cause even more headaches 😉

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Oh god how I would love that lot down south to head NNW and batter me this evening. Honestly I’d happily cope with another 3 cup final losses in a row if that would happen. 

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1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

Oh god how I would love that lot down south to head NNW and batter me this evening. Honestly I’d happily cope with another 3 cup final losses in a row if that would happen. 

There's so much rain here in Aylesbury over the last 2 to 3 hours I’m going to check how much when it’s stopped.

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apart from a brief shower at lunchtime, it's been dry here today......the anvil of that complex should be well in view now but alas 100% low level cloud cover is scuppering visibilty, no sun all day

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4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I don’t think anyone should knock the forecasters at all - but there is an abundance of warning out there and depending on where you read it the forecasts contradict each other a lot.

I think this confusion is causing a lot of frustration amongst ppl who either love or hate storms, because it’s no help when trying to plan a chase, or an outdoor event, or I imagine any job where you have a risk from lightning or flash flooding...

This whole week must be a nightmare to try to even begin to predict - doesn’t seem to be following the usual patterns, at all so I think credit where credit’s due - but I can understand people’s frustration after the week (and day) we’ve just had. Also there’s plenty more to come which is gonna cause even more headaches 😉

I'm sorry but that's incorrect, the abundance of warnings have been tightly clusters and all pretty damn accurate and have also all have mentioned the hit and miss nature of showers/storms etc.

There is absolutely no way around it with these dynamics in play weather forecasters will know whether Bobs BBQ will be hot & sunny while Fred's alfresco feast 3miles away will be washed away so have to issue generic warning zones. Its the exactly the same all around the world when forecasting convection and in the US some of the warning polygons cover hundreds of thousands of square miles which is why people need to remember a warning constitutes a possibility not a guarantee that severe could occur and should be aware of potential precautions they need to take should that possibility come to fruition. 

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9 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I don’t think anyone should knock the forecasters at all - but there is an abundance of warning out there and depending on where you read it the forecasts contradict each other a lot.

I think this confusion is causing a lot of frustration amongst ppl who either love or hate storms, because it’s no help when trying to plan a chase, or an outdoor event, or I imagine any job where you have a risk from lightning or flash flooding...

This whole week must be a nightmare to try to even begin to predict - doesn’t seem to be following the usual patterns, at all so I think credit where credit’s due - but I can understand people’s frustration after the week (and day) we’ve just had. Also there’s plenty more to come which is gonna cause even more headaches 😉

Fair enough, yeah I don't see why forecasters should get the blame. Forecasting is just a range of possibilities that can occur at any given time. The fact that we can forecast the potential for such storms well in advance is amazing in itself but to pinpoint exactly where they form will always be a challenge due to the turbulent nature of the atmosphere.

Whenever we see estofex level 2 warnings or met office weather warnings, that doesn't mean your precise area will see the effects, there is the probability that they will occur and those probabilities need to be highlighted whether an event comes into fruition or not. You win some you lose some, I don't see what can be gained at venting frustration at people doing their job to make people aware of possibilities.

Yeah I was disappointed there was no thunderstorms here in southampton yesterday but instead of throwing my anger around, I just went for a bike ride in the warm sun. You can't control what the weather brings.

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