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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

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Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Yes you got me

I put car on my head and filmed over myself

ūüėā

It looked like an over head selfie video of rapid convective action ,lol

 

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Surface based is always less active than mid level fireworks

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What a bust from the Metoffice - laughable really

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come on guy forecasting storms are not a easy job  to forecast right 

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Met office weather Forecast South West England

Headline:

Severe thunderstorms slowly easing overnight.

This Evening and Tonight:

Thunderstorms will become more widespread this evening, especially in the east, with frequent lightning, large hail and torrential downpours. This could result in flash flooding, with thunderstorms only slowly easing through the early hours. Warm, humid and misty in places. Minimum temperature 13¬†¬įC.

Friday:

After a cloudy and misty start, sunny spells will develop but this will spark further isolated and slow moving heavy showers and thunderstorms through Friday. Maximum temperature 22¬†¬įC.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Becoming dry and less humid over the weekend, with early mist and fog clearing to give warm sunny spells. Some rain may brush the far southwest on Monday.

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Warminister had a massive downpour earlier did it not?

The warning wasn’t for dangerous levels of excitement - it was for severe weather, which I begrudgingly accept was probably warranted for some places

This was the metoffice warning - "Severe thunderstorms likely to produce torrential downpours, flooding in some places and frequent lightning.", from what was quoted and on this forum, i don't think much of that was anywhere near the mark, it was was just a case saving a litte pride, because the amber warning on Sunday turned up at quite short notice.

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1 minute ago, Bangers & Flash said:

Poor quality iPhone pic, but can see the Formby cell from here

FF2A88F8-3141-4E79-9106-A6BBA71CB5BE.jpeg

456CDFEC-C4B4-451D-B92C-0883F9D037D0.jpeg

I'm under anvil shadow now 

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Bedtime then ? Naff all for here.

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Really fed up of the met office bashing on here. If you look at the radar you'll see the rain fall is very localised. This afternoon Didcot,  5 miles away, had flash flooding,but I had diddly squat. It's the nature of storms and these peculiarities are why we're all so fascinated by them( well me!). If anyone knows better than the met office how to accurately predict where a storm will occur and,even better, how disruptive it's going to be then I suggest you invent an app and prepare to become an overnight millionaire.

 

Edit:My street is now a river. This is usually followed by backing up of the sewers as they get flooded. 

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2 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Really fed up of the met office bashing on here. If you look at the radar you'll see the rain fall is very localised. This afternoon Didcot,  5 miles away, had flash flooding,but I had diddly squat. It's the nature of storms and these peculiarities are why we're all so fascinated by them( well me!). If anyone knows better than the met office how to accurately predict where a storm will occur and,even better, how disruptive it's going to be then I suggest you invent an app and prepare to become an overnight millionaire.

 

Edit:My street is now a river. This is usually followed by backing up of the sewers as they get flooded. 

It seems some on here require an MCS the size of Ireland firing out a 1000 strikes a minute and 900 mm of rainfall to justify a warning ,lol

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23 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Surface based is always less active than mid level fireworks

Not all the time. 64,000 strikes recorded on 28th June 2012 came from mainly surfaced based storms. 

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Its Saturday night all over again here rather disappointed yet again but good luck to those further north and east as storms finally becoming more organised! 

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2 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Really fed up of the met office bashing on here. If you look at the radar you'll see the rain fall is very localised. This afternoon Didcot,  5 miles away, had flash flooding,but I had diddly squat. It's the nature of storms and these peculiarities are why we're all so fascinated by them( well me!). If anyone knows better than the met office how to accurately predict where a storm will occur and,even better, how disruptive it's going to be then I suggest you invent an app and prepare to become an overnight millionaire.

 

Edit:My street is now a river. This is usually followed by backing up of the sewers as they get flooded. 

Just one incident of a localised downpour (which are not uncommon at this time of year) still didn't warrant the over exaggerated forecasts - its a bust

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Really fed up of the met office bashing on here. If you look at the radar you'll see the rain fall is very localised. This afternoon Didcot,  5 miles away, had flash flooding,but I had diddly squat. It's the nature of storms and these peculiarities are why we're all so fascinated by them( well me!). If anyone knows better than the met office how to accurately predict where a storm will occur and,even better, how disruptive it's going to be then I suggest you invent an app and prepare to become an overnight millionaire.

 

Edit:My street is now a river. This is usually followed by backing up of the sewers as they get flooded. 

The point i'm making is that, it was pi**ing down with rain, with regular thunder and lightning for nearly half an hour before the amber warning was seen by some, so there was not any time to prepare for it - this was Sunday's storm.

Edited by DIS1970
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4 minutes ago, cobbett said:

Just one incident of a localised downpour (which are not uncommon at this time of year) still didn't warrant the over exaggerated forecasts - its a bust

I agree, they could have reduced the warning size as the day progressed, looking at the radar is was quite clear that the Amber for areas such as Exeter was not necessary, just needlessly issuing warnings for no reason.

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11 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Its Saturday night all over again here rather disappointed yet again but good luck to those further north and east as storms finally becoming more organised! 

Showers still keep developing to the SE for now. You never know!

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

I find an ironic observation that people who don't receive severe weather in their very own back yard are the ones who complain about unwarranted met office warnings......

The met office amber warning is for parts of the west country and wales and is for the potential of excessive rain & potential flooding....I'm in the amber warning area and given the deluge we've had this afternoon and evening and surface flooding on roads, it's entirely appropriate.................Sorry, but it grinds my gears, the met office get a lot of unwarranted & unjustified criticism, they are professional forecasters and apart from the very few pro's on NW, I'd like any armchair expert on here to do better 

I think the amber warning was totally justified given what we were seeing perhaps I wasn't expecting the warning to be where it was given the model output, I would have had it as the following given what all the forecasts were showing (right)...

image.thumb.png.22d1e2afcf349c2d91e0cafa2bac7234.png

So I was genuinely surprised to see the Meto put the amber so far SW given what even their forecast radar was showing but after recent flood events I can fully understood their move.

But it wasn't far off...

The risk is when the media latch onto it and you get the daily express producing headlines like>

'MEGASTORM LIGHTNING BLITZ HEADING FOR UK!!!'

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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a few years ago,. I saw a one little shower in the SE .. form into a huge storm 2/3 the size of Wales by the time it got here. 

Just watching the radar... I see even now a torrential downpour has developed over Bath.

 

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

It seems some on here require an MCS the size of Ireland firing out a 1000 strikes a minute and 900 mm of rainfall to justify a warning ,lol

I wish I'd taken more notice of the warnings tbh.  My parish council provide sandbags but they're not open now when I need them! Luckily I have a supply of old towels to improvise with 

Edited by Frosty hollows
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Just now, cobbett said:

Just one incident of a localised downpour (which are not uncommon at this time of year) still didn't warrant the over exaggerated forecasts - its a bust

One incident?.......go and have a look at the radar for the past several  hours ( and still ongoing) for wilts/wales/oxon/berks & parts of somerset and then come back and say that today there was only one incident of a localised downpour and the Meto's warnings were unwarranted.

 

In closing (and not directed at you specifically) some members in here need to look up what the Met Office warnings actually mean and their criteria before slagging them off in here ....Don't forget, the warning system is in place for Mr & Mrs Joe Public who dont' have access to information that we do here on NW....With reference to the warning system,  the amber which is for an increased likelyhood of impacts from severe weather.....no where does it say definite and for every single location in the warning area.....to quote...

"

Yellow Warning: Yellow warnings can be issued for a range of weather situations. Many are issued when it is likely that the weather will cause some low level impacts, including some disruption to travel in a few places. Many people may be able to continue with their daily routine, but there will be some that will be directly impacted and so it is important to assess if you could be affected. Other yellow warnings are issued when the weather could bring much more severe impacts to the majority of people but the certainty of those impacts occurring is much lower. It is important to read the content of yellow warnings to determine which weather situation is being covered by the yellow warning.

Amber Warning: There is an increased likelihood of impacts from severe weather, which could potentially disrupt your plans. This means there is the possibility of travel delays, road and rail closures, power cuts and the potential risk to life and property. You should think about changing your plans and taking action to protect yourself and your property. You may want to consider the impact of the weather on your family and your community and whether there is anything you need to do ahead of the severe weather to minimise the impact.

Red Warning: Dangerous weather is expected and, if you haven’t already done so, you should take action now to keep yourself and others safe from the impact of the severe weather. It is very likely that there will be a risk to life, with substantial disruption to travel, energy supplies and possibly widespread damage to property and infrastructure. You should avoid travelling, where possible, and follow the advice of the emergency services and local authorities."

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