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Supacell

Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

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First time I’ve been outside since about 1:30 and it’s notably fresher despite several hours of sunshine!

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24c humid, dark clouds about few spots of rain,sun still coming out from time to time

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Just chased a storm from around Cheltenham up to just south of Hereford, where I am now. A few flashes of lightning as I was driving but certainly not frequent or big lightning. Lots of rain though and some bad flooding on the B4125, only just got through. 

I am now looking at the storm west of Oxford as my next victim to stalk.

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Heavy rain now, Detector is going off more frequently.

Seems to be a storm approaching !!!

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Just now, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

I think it is game for us in south and west for thunderstorms

worst is meant to happen between now and 6am so should indeed be picking up.

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11 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Just chased a storm from around Cheltenham up to just south of Hereford, where I am now. A few flashes of lightning as I was driving but certainly not frequent or big lightning. Lots of rain though and some bad flooding on the B4125, only just got through. 

I am now looking at the storm west of Oxford as my next victim to stalk.

It's part of a biggie! !

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Posted (edited)

Just had a perfect transition from sunny morning, hot humid sunny picnic in the park in Abingdon, getting drenched in first heavy warm rain around 2:30 -3 as we headed back up to Boars Hill, then proper storm approached to our west, then another came overhead, absure deluge of rain which was proper flooding stuff, then it cleared around 6pm, and a nice area of quiet vortex just south of the big storm over Oxford went right over us, black clouds swirling in opposite directions. Blackbirds all back out singing again, all over and done, got good lightning for a while and on the radar we seemed to be close to where one patch of storm sprung out of nowhere. Exciting!

Edited by Woollymummy
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well once again in Cheshire wall-to-wall sunshine all day...had this 2 weeks running which I guess is good but when you consider every storm goes 20 miles north, east, south or west of us its quite annoying

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Sun been out for about 2 hours now and still no sign of anything forming therefore I’m calling a bust IMBY. Shame but nothing we can do about it. 

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12 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Just chased a storm from around Cheltenham up to just south of Hereford, where I am now. A few flashes of lightning as I was driving but certainly not frequent or big lightning. Lots of rain though and some bad flooding on the B4125, only just got through. 

I am now looking at the storm west of Oxford as my next victim to stalk.

Hoping that bad boy its me dead on :)

Good luck. Roads are good today around this neck of the woods! No kids so empty roads! WOOP

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Beginning to warm up last minute from the sunshine still temperatures peaking at around 23 Celsius so quite warm :)

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it's so volatile, you think, nothing but heavy rain in Bristol.. then there's torrential rain that just forms suddenly.. probably crying for a lightning bolt.

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7 minutes ago, Woollymummy said:

Just had a perfect transition from sunny morning, hot humid sunny picnic in the park in Abingdon, getting drenched in first heavy warm rain around 2:30 -3 as we headed back up to Boars Hill, then proper storm approached to our west, then another came overhead, absure deluge of rain which was proper flooding stuff, then it cleared around 6pm, and a nice area of quiet vortex just south of the big storm over Oxford went right over us, black clouds swirling in opposite directions. Blackbirds all back out singing again, all over and done, got good lightning for a while and on the radar we seemed to be close to where one patch of storm sprung out of nowhere. Exciting!

And I got no rain and a couple of rumbles ! Very localised

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image.thumb.png.0398609fe9766f222129d81428b1f82e.png

Very un-organised cells currently.

Hopefully this picks up some steam soon. 

 

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1 hour ago, Karl83 said:

Too many on here throwing the towel in already. Or is it reverse psychology? 

The MO warning was valid from 4pm and we're 1 hour and 20 mins into it. Give it a chance. 🙄

Picked it back up! 😎😇

575D0B29-C15D-4D3B-B441-A0BA4EF14033.thumb.jpeg.01f9b67b9d733a36d611f8defa468ec8.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, Neglectedchicken said:

Beginning to warm up last minute from the sunshine still temperatures peaking at around 23 Celsius so quite warm :)

Sun amounts don't matter now when wanting sun you want the least amount of cloud between roughly 12-3 in the absolute height of summer maybe 11-4 (=

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1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Sun amounts don't matter now when wanting sun you want the least amount of cloud between roughly 12-3 in the absolute height of summer maybe 11-4 (=

I wasn't referring it towards the storm side I was just sharing my current weather :D

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Growing cell to the W of Coventry....heading our way

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Posted (edited)

Even though not feeling super confident for this area (Edit: looking at Arnie Pie’s post above, may have spoken too soon) surprises can happen and besides, the Met Office does suggest the possibility of severe thunderstorms for places such as the South West and the West Midlands.

I suppose even then, some places in the above regions probably won’t see that much at all due to the hit and miss nature of thunderstorms.

To be fair, some places have at least seen some heavy downpours and thundery showers so far today. It would be nice if something severe does occur (not because of the floods that weather like this can cause, but for the fact that thunderstorms are admittedly fun to watch).

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 01 Jun 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 02 Jun 2018

ISSUED 17:50 UTC Thu 31 May 2018

ISSUED BY: Chris

Another day of widespread convection across the British Isles...

 
The focus of shower and thunderstorm development will shift further to the north and west on Friday, with unstable air pushing northwards through Scotland during the day. CAPE values in excess of 700 J/kg, and some pockets up to 1000 J/kg will be possible by the afternoon. Upper air profiles across northern Wales, northwestern England and into Scotland are fairly moist with PWATs of around 30mm. Drier air in the mid-levels will become a problem across southern parts of Britain, and while heavy showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible there, they will likely be isolated, and forced by weak surface convergence. Topography will also aid convective development on Friday. 
 
Like previous days shear will remain weak, and mean that showers/thunderstorms will remain messy and pulse variety. The steering flow will take showers and thunderstorms only slowly northwards once they develop, and in western parts of Britain they may train over the same areas, giving the risk of localised flooding. Like with previous days rain totals in 1-2 hours could exceed 50mm in places giving the potential for localised flooding. Updrafts will not last particularly long so hail size will likely remain below 1cm, although cannot be ruled out. 
 
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Still cells going up to the north east of here through the muck.

37E2F171-D635-4618-80DC-E9CB6E309FB9.jpeg

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