Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Sun's out now. I fear it might be too late for here though. We shall see! - Back to carpet cleaning for me.

Absolutely,

Additionally given the abundance of shower activity a surprising lack Sferics along with organisation.

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

Tower forming east of Kettering, weird?

[TJS1998Tom]

3 minutes ago, Supacell said:

It seems to be struggling to get going. Convection was much more explosive on Sunday. 

I dont think this cloud is doing people many favours 

[Mapantz]

Just now, Alderc said:

Absolutely,

Additionally given the abundance of shower activity a surprising lack Sferics along with organisation.

The saving grace is that the warning is from 4pm > 
There's still plenty of time. There is plenty of convection going on now the sun is out.

[Mizzle]

22 minutes ago, matt111 said:

One positive I can report from this side of Hampshire. It’s brightening up. 

And here on the northern edge it's grey, lumpy and a bit ploppy rainy. 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The saving grace is that the warning is from 4pm > 
There's still plenty of time. There is plenty of convection going on now the sun is out.

Agreed. however radar suggests the well known phenomenon of the Dorset storm shield is joining forces with its Hampshire sibling.

[biddie]

7 minutes ago, Reverse Zonality said:

As IMBY a post as you will see. Looking at various convective outlooks today and the hi-res models things seem to be going to plan with what is developing out there now. Some expect a storm guaranteed in their back yard it would seem. It doesn't work that way, it never has.

I was going to say the storms don't look as severe as forecast but given most are intensifying/growing and we are still in the early stages of the forecast period, I think we'll see some severe weather before the day is out.

I wonder if those thinking of early storms are confusing the forecasts with what was left from overnight? All the forecasts I've seen, including the Met Office, have shown storms developing during the afternoon, as they are doing

No not at all most forecasts very clearly stated storms would be severe on the south east from about 11am onwards. couldn't have been clearer

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Kindly remind people though that in the past week most storms did not contain much lightning till nocturnal cooling kicked in aiding to better cloud height 

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Kindly remind people though that in the past week most storms did not contain much lightning till nocturnal cooling kicked in aiding to better cloud height 

I don't think that really matters in this case, as we're not reliant on storms crossing the channel. They are home-grown.

[Dangerous55019]

Looks like things are starting to build around here nicely now. 

[biddie]

10 minutes ago, Reverse Zonality said:

As IMBY a post as you will see. Looking at various convective outlooks today and the hi-res models things seem to be going to plan with what is developing out there now. Some expect a storm guaranteed in their back yard it would seem. It doesn't work that way, it never has.

I was going to say the storms don't look as severe as forecast but given most are intensifying/growing and we are still in the early stages of the forecast period, I think we'll see some severe weather before the day is out.

I wonder if those thinking of early storms are confusing the forecasts with what was left from overnight? All the forecasts I've seen, including the Met Office, have shown storms developing during the afternoon, as they are doing

No not confusing anything most forecasts made it very clear storms would start from late morning onwards continuing all day. BBC also had live forecasts last night and this morning indicating this 

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

I's 4pm where is the storms at?

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I don't think that really matters in this case, as we're not reliant on storms crossing the channel. They are home-grown.

If they're going to go out as all home grown I don't think the south coast will be in for a treat mainly inland a couple of miles??

[Mapantz]

ELT's are neg -40 to -50, so any updrafts strong enough will encounter cold enough air for hail/lightning to develop.

[The PIT]

Low cloud is making is way back so that will kill the remote chance of any storms off for here.

[Karl83]

Tipping down but no thunder and lightning yet

[Jordan S]

3 minutes ago, Neglectedchicken said:

I's 4pm where is the storms at?

Patience is key!

[Chris.R]

Something developing near me now. A few spots of rain. 

[tcc]

Chucking it down here in Crawley, looking very grey and murky!

[Cableguy]

Couple of sferics just to the east of Worksop reported by a work colleague in the area.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

12 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I don't think that really matters in this case, as we're not reliant on storms crossing the channel. They are home-grown.

Actually, the 2 big massive CBs over London and Aylesbury this week were both home grown and didn't cross the channel, that's what I was referring to, they both had over shooting tops I think well the Aylesbury one did I'm pretty sure I read somewhere 

Edited May 31, 2018 by Surrey

[TJS1998Tom]

If this builds up shame it wont do anything for us, perhaps midlands

Edit: Does light patches like this show convection?

Edited May 31, 2018 by TJS1998Tom

[Guest]

A freshening sea breeze is now drawing in cooler air from the channel, my DP at home has fallen 2.8C to 15.1C in the last hour despite the temp rising 20.1C.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Had a loud rumble in Keynsham, nothing showing up on the lightning detector though.

EDIT: Another brief rumble seems to have appeared on Blitzortung now.

Edited May 31, 2018 by Ben Sainsbury

[matt111]

There’s a ghost on the radar.