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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex

Sferics NE of Chelmsford but 15 miles down the road where I am, there’s still nothing. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex
  • Location: Hatfield Peverel near Chelmsford Essex

Cells firing in the dover straights and north sea yes!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
6 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

The Ridgeway is the sweet spot I reckon. 

Yep, working on Harwell Campus just by the A34, and I just heard the first rumble!

Edit, and now the (first) downpour.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Things bubbling up quite nicely in a few areas. Meanwhile in much of Hampshire...

image.thumb.png.d5c7e1967318d7367fc367e2c7d6c057.png

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Posted
  • Location: Stevenage Herts
  • Location: Stevenage Herts

How bizarre. I'm a storm phobic but still like watching them on screen (odd I know) This week has been a nightmare but due to modern technology I'm able to track the storms. For a week now all stations have said today is the big day. That there would be severe storms here Hertfordshire from about 11am today. Well there has bern zilch. It moved to 4pm now 5pm. It shows even with all our modern technology it can be off track. Criticism of the met Office and of peoples expectations of them, they have been frightened into forecasting far to early and making the forecasts bigger than they actually are. Partly our fault with the expectation of 24 seven forecasts. All in all so far been a warm humid pleasant day. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

D5191FE5-F0B3-4327-A84F-9EFB4832A972.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Sun back out here, which can only be a good thing I guess!

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Things bubbling up quite nicely in a few areas. Meanwhile in much of Hampshire...

image.thumb.png.d5c7e1967318d7367fc367e2c7d6c057.png

One positive I can report from this side of Hampshire. It’s brightening up. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)

2C71AF6C-26D3-45A9-9FB0-AF4BCBF7F818.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Stevenage Herts
  • Location: Stevenage Herts
1 hour ago, Neglectedchicken said:

Not much has changed over the past hours... Forecasts were predicting as early as 6am and now its 2pm.  It is quite a disappointment.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yep, working on Harwell Campus just by the A34, and I just heard the first rumble!

Edit, and now the (first) downpour.

And I'm the other side of Didcot and it's dry here!

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
1 minute ago, matt111 said:

One positive I can report from this side of Hampshire. It’s brightening up. 

You know what, it's doing that here too, at long last. 

Didn't think it would happen so soon after my last post, but the area of rain seems to have suddenly started decaying away.

In spite of my earlier comments (and the models, come to think of it), I'll probably see some hot sun followed by one of the best thunderstorms in years now, just to make me look foolish .

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
6 minutes ago, matt111 said:

One positive I can report from this side of Hampshire. It’s brightening up. 

 

2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

You know what, it's doing that here too, at long last. 

Didn't think it would happen so soon after my last post, but the area of rain seems to have suddenly started decaying away.

In spite of my earlier comments (and the models, come to think of it), I'll probably see some hot sun followed by one of the best thunderstorms in years now, just to make me look foolish .

Sunshine here too after cloudy start. Difficult forecasting today with crud being a all too familiar added announce!

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

The all to familiar gap is taking shape. The gap starts just to the North of Shepton Mallet and stretches West by about 20 miles North to South all the way to the Bristol Channel.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Sun's out now. I fear it might be too late for here though. We shall see! - Back to carpet cleaning for me.

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19 minutes ago, biddie said:

How bizarre. I'm a storm phobic but still like watching them on screen (odd I know) This week has been a nightmare but due to modern technology I'm able to track the storms. For a week now all stations have said today is the big day. That there would be severe storms here Hertfordshire from about 11am today. Well there has bern zilch. It moved to 4pm now 5pm. It shows even with all our modern technology it can be off track. Criticism of the met Office and of peoples expectations of them, they have been frightened into forecasting far to early and making the forecasts bigger than they actually are. Partly our fault with the expectation of 24 seven forecasts. All in all so far been a warm humid pleasant day. 

 

As IMBY a post as you will see. Looking at various convective outlooks today and the hi-res models things seem to be going to plan with what is developing out there now. Some expect a storm guaranteed in their back yard it would seem. It doesn't work that way, it never has.

I was going to say the storms don't look as severe as forecast but given most are intensifying/growing and we are still in the early stages of the forecast period, I think we'll see some severe weather before the day is out.

I wonder if those thinking of early storms are confusing the forecasts with what was left from overnight? All the forecasts I've seen, including the Met Office, have shown storms developing during the afternoon, as they are doing :)

Edited by Reverse Zonality
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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

It seems to be struggling to get going. Convection was much more explosive on Sunday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
4 minutes ago, Supacell said:

It seems to be struggling to get going. Convection was much more explosive on Sunday. 

Can't see anything at the moment that makes me think huge storms are going to break out.

Looks like a sunshine and sharp showers type of day so far.

If things do kick off, I would put the Amber warning 20-30 miles further North than they currently show. Take anything South of the M4 out of the Amber warning is probably a safe bet now.

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

faint rumble (I think) to my NE, somewhere near Wootton Bassett

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