Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

[StormChaseUK]

1 minute ago, jordan smith said:

Yes I do I’ve drawn a couple of lines to show the area I think will see the most thunderstorms. Wiltshire and oxford and places around there look like good places to be for late afternoon evening time.

That's my area, so will keep an eye on it through this afternoon.  Will live stream if anything occurs.

[Chris.R]

 24.4°C with intermittent sunshine. Feels primed. 

[ancientsolar]

1 minute ago, StormChaseUK said:

That's my area, so will keep an eye on it through this afternoon.  Will live stream if anything occurs.

same will livestream if anything happens here too!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

17 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Really? I suggest you look at the radar and watch developments. Cells popping up west of Reading in lines stretching SE-NW. Intensifying by the frame. Certainly IMBY there are towers shooting up everywhere and as I say, it's early

He’s probably referring to my comments yesterday suggesting it could have been as early as 6 -7 am - but that was for the elevated stuff from France which sadly didn’t materialise

[Mr_ Nexus]

Just started to rain here 

[ancientsolar]

there is a thunderstorm heading every so slowly towards Kent o,o not saying it will survive.. but if it does.. they don't want a repeat of the flash floods! it seems very slow moving.

[Bristawl Si]

Steady rain here now; no thunder or lightening though

[Jordan S]

10 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

That's my area, so will keep an eye on it through this afternoon.  Will live stream if anything occurs.

Okay good

[ancientsolar]

First blitz Sferics SWest of Barnstaple, 

Edited May 31, 2018 by ancientsolar

[Mizzle]

BLIMEY! Pelting drops just fell out of the sky here! Made me blimmin' jump out of skin (in conservatory!) And it's really going some...thought the roof was going to give way. Yikes!

 

[SteveB]

Just had a heavy shower here in Weston, Temp is 23.1c  and DP of 18.0c

Expect just moderate showers for the rest of the day, while areas further North and South see thunderstorms. 

[ancientsolar]

Sferic SE Reading! ( approaching)

[Mizzle]

A few claps of thunder and it's rolled off to my NW. 

[Frosty hollows]

2 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

Sferic SE Reading! ( approaching)

That's got my name on it

[Thunderstruck]

Sun trying to break through the clag here now finally... 

[Mr_ Nexus]

Rain here was only a few big drops then it stopped . Heavy dark grey cloud overhead now drifting slowly towards Shropshire border , I'll expect it will kick off once its over the border .

[Frosty hollows]

Really surprised that cell to my NW hasn't fired yet

[ancientsolar]

1 minute ago, Frosty hollows said:

Really surprised that cell to my NW hasn't fired yet

i'm surprised that almost all of them have just dumped rain without striking how very rude of them!

[toggerob]

A cell just southwest of Derby beginning to form, the light-fluffy CU clouds we had just a hour ago in the Peaks have developed into substantial size with  dark bases, the humidity still going upwards here. 

[alexisj9]

French storm will get here but won't be a storm, it dies over water, you can see that on the radar loop.

[Panayiotis]

Sat24 giving indication that convection is playing a bigger part now with cloud tops rising west of London (where there has been recent sunshine). This convection will lead to surroundings areas giving way to more sunshine which in turn should then aid in providing more instability. Everything for this afternoon/evening should start to unfold now with this chain reaction.    

[Dean E]

2 hours ago, Dean E said:

Just regarding the Met Office Amber warning area, which took me by surprise given that Central Southern England seemed more at threat with Severe storms than The South West according to model outputs earlier. (Would love to see their models right now)

But this area has caught my eye. Rapid clearance of any clouds during recent frames indicates the main area for potential IMO. With steering flows being NNW, this puts everyone in the Amber Warning area at risk. Possible good call by the Met? We shall see.

Well further to my earlier post, clearance continues across the channel. Of course CAPE levels are still increasing over land masses, with Northern France showing 1500J/kg by 6pm this evening, around 1000J/Kg over Southern England at the same time. Convection is now popping up here and there and should continue over the next few hours (remember CAPE levels peak early evening!).

Clearance is slowly moving towards the South Coasts with my location starting to see some hazy sunshine at last.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

French storm will get here but won't be a storm, it dies over water, you can see that on the radar loop.

 

That French storm is right moving against flow, possible supercell. Looking like tracking up the French coast as doesn't want to dip its toes into the Channel.

[Ben Sainsbury]

3 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

Sat24 giving indication that convection is playing a bigger part now with cloud tops rising west of London (where there has been recent sunshine). This convection will lead to surroundings areas giving way to more sunshine which in turn should then aid in providing more instability. Everything for this afternoon/evening should start to unfold now with this chain reaction.    

Have to agree, Sat24 up until this point anyway haven't shown the showers over the UK to have reached sufficient cloud heights for lightning activity. The final frame of the Sat24 towards Brighton looks very promising.

Edited May 31, 2018 by Ben Sainsbury

[Supacell]

Currently sat on the Worcestershire/Gloucestershire border in the hope I have made the right decision.