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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards


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The hi res models I looked at had nothing until after 3pm.

Depends on what data you’re looking at I guess. 

There’s always those who take great joy in declaring a bust before 2pm though and it’s always a fantastic source of comedy to read those dramatic posts

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Shame, never heard a thing from Keynsham looking extremely promising now, if anyone is stuck under the trains of shower it could get very ugly!

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Posted
  • Location: Sherborne dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms. Warm weather. Not hot or cold weather.
  • Location: Sherborne dorset

Lightning near south coast.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I think we are done for the day. Absolutely in a dry slot, nothing else likely to fire downwind - game over!

you forgot to add, 'from a total IMBY perspective'.......I appreciate you don't think anything will spark in your locale but your inadvertant generalization will cause confusion in the thread

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Posted
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border

Showers just started in Fleet. Temp 22.4, dewpoint 17.7 and humidity 75%: grey and overcast with bright spots. Can't see much excitement cloud wise but what does everyone else think my chances are for a bit of a chase tonight?

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1 minute ago, mike5900 said:

Lightning near south coast.

Where, please be specific, the south coast is 300miles long from Dover to Lands End.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Looking extremely dark to my North, the pictures don’t do it justice but looks like a small wall cloud in the 2nd picture.

DC055918-2DA7-4E83-BDFE-6F65489586E3.jpeg09DBED84-0366-4565-9370-6BBCFBF9558D.jpeg

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, Neglectedchicken said:

Not much has changed over the past hours... Forecasts were predicting as early as 6am and now its 2pm.  It is quite a disappointment.

Really? I suggest you look at the radar and watch developments. Cells popping up west of Reading in lines stretching SE-NW. Intensifying by the frame. Certainly IMBY there are towers shooting up everywhere and as I say, it's early

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex

I don’t doubt those reporting lightning near Bristol, however Blitzortung is showing nothing. Hasn’t done very well these past few days IMO. 

IMBY, I’m really not fancying my chances much now. This clag just isn’t clearing at all, really can’t see much, if anything, happening here. Hope I’m wrong. 

Good luck to everyone else though, hope you all get something. :) 

Edited by Thunderstruck
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Posted
  • Location: Southampton
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and thunderstorms, snow in winter
  • Location: Southampton
1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Where, please be specific, the south coast is 300miles long from Dover to Lands End.

There was a strike shown on lightning maps just off the coast near Hastings, however I think it's a false return as there's nothing on radar there.

I'm feeling increasingly pessimistic for our chances round here.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

24c now according to my piece of junk Netatmo Thermometer. 

Those cells just south of Swindon are heading straight for Bristol. Better extend my lunch break!

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
7 minutes ago, Reverse Zonality said:

The hi res models I looked at had nothing until after 3pm.

Depends on what data you’re looking at I guess. 

There’s always those who take great joy in declaring a bust before 2pm though and it’s always a fantastic source of comedy to read those dramatic posts

Yep. That craziness here on Sunday didn't start til late

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

AROME 6z cumulative precipitation chart over 24hrs looks to me a reasonable match with the Met Office AMBER warning, maybe a little bit further north and east?

aromehd-25-24-0.thumb.png.42408df8babdb97d692949bb78bc9c0b.png

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Looking at the radar things could get quite intresting here soon 

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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire

If lightning is 100% required battery charge,  we are at about 85-90% charge at the moment.

nearly there

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Bournemouth METAR reporting thunderstorm. 

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Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales

now metoffice issued an amber alert for 4pm, by 4pm, the existing cluster will have moved through .. though may'be there won't feel like there's a gap between now and then,. just ever intensifying situation 

i'm really surprised that there isn't a single strike being picked up on the detectors for us (UK) .. when we look at those showers.. which could be falling as rain and perhaps soon hail... how much more intense can they get ? 

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3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Bournemouth METAR reporting thunderstorm. 

Its absolutely wrong. already confirmed as incorrect.

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
45 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

[Stepping carefully over the eggshells]

Do you think we will have storms inland today? Say - around the M4 areas?

I am genuinely interested on your thoughts, just would like a few specifics.

Yes I do I’ve drawn a couple of lines to show the area I think will see the most thunderstorms. Wiltshire and oxford and places around there look like good places to be for late afternoon evening time.

63C2B97C-6314-4EB4-A82A-637530FEBFAB.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

More breaks in the cloud should arrive across parts of the South coast over the next few hours, that will have an impact.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
1 minute ago, jordan smith said:

Yes I do I’ve drawn a couple of lines to show the area I think will see the most thunderstorms. Wiltshire and oxford and places around there look like good places to be for late afternoon evening time.

63C2B97C-6314-4EB4-A82A-637530FEBFAB.jpeg

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