Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I’m happy for it all to wait til 4 - should be free to head east towards Reading / Windsor by then... maybe even Richmond Hill looking like a good spot?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

3 minutes ago, Lauren said:

I'm inclined to agree.

Sat24 showing all the clear slots the other side of the channel and over the Low Countries. Think it’s going to be one of them days watching in envy over the other side of the water. 

[alexisj9]

10 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Thunderfog is the worst thing I can think of...

Apart from not having thunder at all

Have had it before, very eiry that's for sure.

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

It is raining lightly over in warminster in Wiltshire and still cloudy 

[tomp456]

Those small breaks in the clouds have disappeared.

back to overcast again

[Robbie Garrett]

Lightning firing on Kent coast. 

https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/visual

[Gray-Wolf]

15 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Eh? I'm not sure if one storm over India/Pakistan forebodes a year of increased global lightning strikes. Where is your evidence for that? The reason why we have seen the bigger storms is because conditions have been ideal for them in the past week and a half.

This is not what is said in the post.

If you look at May over India Pakistan you will find it has been a month of near constant storms/dust storms that have caused major issues for them.

The studies look at yearly totals of strikes by storm numbers and the years showing elevated/enhanced strike rates do not follow other cyclical weather/solar forcings but , and this is my point, when the year starts off with enhanced rates then it would seem to show that conditions are ripe for enhanced rates across the season.

We saw 'enhanced' ( for the time of year) rates from the April plume and we all know tues gave 60,000 strikes for the UK. If you add in Europe that rises to 400,000 strikes which , I'm led to believe, is ''enhanced'' strike rates.

If we follow the studies of what is observed across India/Pakistan then I believe we would be wise to expect this year to show enhanced strike rates from the storms? Proof of the pudding will be seen over the summer months of storms and , should it become a crazy one, I will follow this guide in future!

Tell me how the forming/life of Indian/Pakistan storms would differ from how ours form?

If no difference to the basic physics of formation then surely our storm stats would echo theirs

Edited May 31, 2018 by Gray-Wolf

[Guest]

Going to be at least 2-3hours before anything resembling a clearance reaches here

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

Would love to be in the Netherlands right now

[Derecho]

4 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

This is not what is said in the post.

If you look at May over India Pakistan you will find it has been a month of near constant storms/dust storms that have caused major issues for them.

The studies look at yearly totals of strikes by storm numbers and the years showing elevated/enhanced strike rates do not follow other cyclical weather/solar forcings but , and this is my point, when the year starts off with enhanced rates then it would seem to show that conditions are ripe for enhanced rates across the season.

We saw 'enhanced' ( for the time of year) rates from the April plume and we all know tues gave 60,000 strikes for the UK. If you add in Europe that rises to 400,000 strikes which , I'm led to believe, is ''enhanced'' strike rates.

If we follow what is observed across India/Pakistan then we would be wise to expect this year to show enhanced strike rates from the storms.

Tell me how the forming/life of Indian/Pakistan storms would differ from how ours form?

If no difference to the basic physics of formation then surely our storm stats would echo theirs

This is just one extreme event over India that you are focusing it on and extrapolating it as some kind of worldwide phenomenon when the evidence isn't there. There were probably many other severe storm events in recent decades gone by so you can't conclude that lightning is getting more frequent from such a small sample size of storms. In fact, some of the latest research suggests the opposite.

https://www.leeds.ac.uk/news/article/4185/lightning_storms_less_likely_in_a_warming_planet

Anyway don't wanna drag this off topic. 

[LightningLover]

I thought I heard a distant elevated rumble

[MartinD]

Sun has been out here for a little over 45 minutes and it's got very warm and ultra humid now, currently 22c here in Worcester however i think i'm going to take a run further south today, maybe Swindon area then sit and wait then a run across to Bristol / Gloucester. Fingers crossed we all get something good today again.

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

It is still cloudy and raining lightly and not clear spells yet and it looks disappointing over here in warminster in Wiltshire

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

I thought I heard a distant elevated rumble

How can you tell the difference between a distant elevated rumble and a distant CG rumble? To be fair they a couple of Sferics near your location.

Looks like another misplotted strike near Lymington in Hants.

Edited May 31, 2018 by Alderc

[LightningLover]

And again.

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

How can you tell the difference between a distant elevated rumble and a distant CG rumble?

Looks like another misplotted strike near Lymington in Hants.

Personally I find elevated thunder to be quite deep and booming, regardless of proximity. CG strikes are quite loud and crackly IMO. Just heard more!

[Jordan S]

3 minutes ago, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

It is still cloudy and raining lightly and not clear spells yet and it looks disappointing over here in warminster in Wiltshire

Don’t worry you should have a good chance of seeing atleast one thunderstorm later

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

Storms being reported in East Anglia, this is weird as not many people were expecting this at first? Happy East Anglians

[The PIT]

5 minutes ago, Neglectedchicken said:

Storms being reported in East Anglia, this is weird as not many people were expecting this at first? Happy East Anglians

Even more amazing as Radar shows zippo over the area.

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

Those thunderstorms in north sea still going when was looking at the real lighting maps

[Kookylou]

Sun out up in Merthyr Tydfil. 

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

I was looking real lighting maps and one lighting dot near Cambridge 

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

The radar is showing them to direct north scraping most parts of EA, unless a miracle happens and they track westwards...

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

2 minutes ago, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

I was looking real lighting maps and one lighting dot near Cambridge 

That's definitely incorrect, I don't know if it could travel that fast, would be nice though.

[Hodgheg]

Well I’m still stuck out here on the southern most coast of Yorkshire. The sea fog has finally cleared to give a different feeling day here. It’s cloudy but feeling humid and the sun does pop out from time to time. I’ve got my eye on the storms off the coast of east Anglia.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Some embedded cells begin to form in the mass of cloud across the West Country, EURO4 currently doing fairly well in line with current situation.