Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

[Azazel]

4 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

as a guesstimate, I'd go considerably further north......southern extent a line from Cheltenham to London....northern extent north Wales to the Humber, with a sweet spot Brum to Lincolnshire,,,,,some isolated storms may fire behind the mid level detritus given enough insolation and given the energy available may be quite strong if they do occur (surrey/hants/sussex) 

I’m inclined to agree, I just feel the Oxford area seems to do well in these setups (was it 2012 when there was a tornado/funnel cloud near didcot with some insane structure?). I would definitely start just north of Oxford and head north depending on what transpires.

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, MattTarrant said:

Though I believe the Met Office are urging on the side of caution with recent flash flooding, an amber for thunderstorms isn't that common!

I sort of agree. However, the covered area hasn't seen anywhere mere the rainfall totals that other parts of the country have.

[keithm]

http://www.camsecure.co.uk/Camsecure2/bournmouth_pier_webcam.html

[Mapantz]

I wonder if there's a lot of swearing going on in Retford?

[Ben Sainsbury]

7 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

Though I believe the Met Office are urging on the side of caution with recent flash flooding, an amber for thunderstorms isn't that common!

The first two words in their description is "severe thunderstorms" I don't often recall the Met Office saying that? Two, much of the SW and South Wales haven't particularly had much rainfall (North Devon and Central Wales in particular) compared to Midlands and parts of the SE. The following chart shows rain totals from 28th May till present.

Edited May 31, 2018 by Ben Sainsbury

[MattTarrant]

Just now, Mapantz said:

I sort of agree. However, the covered area hasn't seen anywhere mere the rainfall totals that other parts of the country have.

I'm not referring to saturation of soils, simply their mindset is a little more cautious after several episodes of flash flooding with only yellow warnings.  

[MrMoonlight]

[Super_Uwe]

So the new amber warning for the south/SW and Wales is valid from 4pm this afternoon...will be a long old day then waiting to see how it all pans out!

[A.J]

8 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

It'll be interesting to hear the weather report from my friend in Utrecht if he gets back to me. Those storms are no threat here unfortunately.

Some strikes in the English Channel and I think some are underestimating the storm potential. During the day I expect inland southern areas to be best placed for these storms with perhaps more organised storms later on this evening.

The Met Office have also upgraded their warning to amber across a large part of the SW!

Yes QS, I agree.....daytime storm chanced are limited here due to detritus......for the evening/overnight?...good potential...........my feelings are that the forecasts are right in terms of what weather to expect, but the timings are wrong due to dead mcs crud, hence why I feel round 1 of surface based storms will be further north, but there is the potential for a round 2 for southern areas starting late afternoon/evening

[Thunderstruck]

Still no sign of this cloud breaking up. Think I might be too far east, at least to start with, not sure about later. 

[The PIT]

Well the channel seems to be the normal killing of Thundery activity so it will have to be home grown stuff. Any idea what temperatures are required to get things firing off???

[AlMorr]

1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

Yes QS, I agree.....daytime storm chanced are limited here due to detritus......for the evening/overnight?...good potential...........my feelings are that the forecasts are right in terms of what weather to expect, but the timings are wrong due to dead mcs crud, hence why I feel round 1 of surface based storms will be further north, but there is the potential for a round 2 for southern areas starting late afternoon/evening

It's not just the southern UK that has been getting thunderstorms, there have been a lot of severe thunderstorms over Germany as well and all the flooding you get with torrential rain 

[ChezWeather]

10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I wonder if there's a lot of swearing going on in Retford?

 

Retford is now on par with Newton Poppleford

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Well the channel seems to be the normal killing of Thundery activity so it will have to be home grown stuff. Any idea what temperatures are required to get things firing off???

Further south a trigger of only 22/23C will release large amounts CAPE at the surface.

[A.J]

1 minute ago, AlMorr said:

It's not just the southern UK that has been getting thunderstorms, there have been a lot of severe thunderstorms over Germany as well and all the flooding you get with torrential rain 

have you quoted the wrong post?......I'm a bit confused over what this has to do with my post....cheers 

[Mapantz]

It's days like today that I wish we could see how the Met Office' MOGREPS model is handling this?!

[Jordan S]

16 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I sort of agree. However, the covered area hasn't seen anywhere mere the rainfall totals that other parts of the country have.

Yeah Aylesbury for instance has had 68mm since Saturday so wouldn’t take much more rain to cause issues here whereas areas west of oxford haven’t been as bad but obviously they may still have flash flooding even if parts haven’t had any rain so far.

[Guest]

To be fair the Amber warning is more aimed at the area currently mid-channels and over northern France which will likely de-stabilise within the next few hours.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Unless cloud has completely cleared elsewhere, this isn’t looking too promising if I do say so. Activity was meant to have got firing off by now, but not even a cintilla of any real development at all. Belgium and Holland as usual getting in on the action, plus using up and gobbling up the rocket fuel. This cloud needs to be getting a move on, otherwise it may be too little too late for the sun to really get to work, resulting in the cap not being broken.. I’ve seen this way too many times before. 

[Derecho]

25 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I wonder if there's a lot of swearing going on in Retford?

Maybe someone at the Met Office has been viewing this thread and has a cheeky sense of humour? 

[Gray-Wolf]

India/Pakistan have been hammered by storms through May ( 250 deaths so far) and their lightening has been pretty epic. Their studies into extreme Lightening years don't show a pattern other than if it sets off with elevated strikes then the season will generally follow with enhanced strike rates.

As such I'd expect another mighty light show from anything that develops as the strike rates so far this year ( including the April storms that moved up the Eastern side of the country?) seem to be showing enhanced rates?

[Marcus_surfer]

something is happening 

[Lauren]

4 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Unless cloud has completely cleared elsewhere, this isn’t looking too promising if I do say so. Activity was meant to have got firing off by now, but not even a cintilla of any real development at all. Belgium and Holland as usual getting in on the action, plus using up and gobbling up the rocket fuel. This cloud needs to be getting a move on, otherwise it may be too little too late for the sun to really get to work, resulting in the cap not being broken.. I’ve seen this way too many times before. 

I'm inclined to agree.

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 minute ago, Marcus_surfer said:

something is happening 

Indeed small shower just formed to my SW, may possibly see a sort of chain reaction soon?

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, Gray-Wolf said:

India/Pakistan have been hammered by storms through May ( 250 deaths so far) and their lightening has been pretty epic. Their studies into extreme Lightening years don't show a pattern other than if it sets off with elevated strikes then the season will generally follow with enhanced strike rates.

As such I'd expect another mighty light show from anything that develops as the strike rates so far this year ( including the April storms that moved up the Eastern side of the country?) seem to be showing enhanced rates?

Eh? I'm not sure if one storm over India/Pakistan forebodes a year of increased global lightning strikes. Where is your evidence for that? The reason why we have seen the bigger storms is because conditions have been ideal for them in the past week and a half.