Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

[Ben Sainsbury]

Those storms along towards Brussels and Netherlands look very violent, 130 strikes a minute so far hopefully a sign of the intensity of what may be to come across parts of Southern England later. I wonder if the far NE coast of East Anglia may see a surprise!?

Quite intrigued by the residual cloud cover pushing in from the English Channel, the cloud really seems to struggle to move north of the M4 before breaking down and producing sunnier spells. 

Edited May 31, 2018 by Ben Sainsbury

[The PIT]

25 minutes ago, Reverse Zonality said:

Might get lucky and catch a thundery shower here later. If I were living somewhere in a line from London westwards to the M4 corridor I'd be very excited about today. Some severe storms are likely to develop in Cent & Southern Eng oday and due to the highly unstable atmosphere we aren't looking for crazy temps to get things going either. 22-23C should do it by the mid/late afternoon.

Inland areas seeing low cloud thinning somewhat over the next hour. Sun beginning to peek through at times here in Sheffield

Yes that's the good news. Bad news the local met forecast for my area is having none of the thundery stuff just showing light showers in the afternoon although more likely to stay dry.

[Dangerous55019]

Still grey here in North East Wales... But getting brighter... In fact the is occasionally breaking through! Very sultry though.

... We just need the sun to fully burn through this grey crud, and start to cook the place, then I think we could well be game on. 

[Guest]

One of the better performing models during this thundery spell has been AROME. Looking at it today it has the first storms firing close to the London area mid afternoon then a more widespread outbreak develops across much of central southern England with storms moving WNW towards M4 corridor, West Midlands and Wales later on.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Okay so it's easy to see what is going on now, that clear gap moving into Wales will soon go it's just the low cloud burning off with the crud moving north now from the left overs. 

The next clear spell is behind this decaying stuff from France. You can see on SAT that showers over northern France forming already. 

Sun will aid in stronger convection today but where any storms form and start feeding off the energy up there that can form and spark sister storms around it or close by without the aid of sun. 

Note that the trigger will probably be where we get some gaps in the cloud. But with how strong the sun is now and the conditions we have, it won't take a long break in cloud to set them off. 

Times before we have had half an hour of sun add boom its go time.. Sometimes it don't. 

Patience today people, please ignore bbc weather, ignore models. Its radar and sat time... 

 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Yes that's the good news. Bad news the local met forecast for my area is having none of the thundery stuff just showing light showers in the afternoon although more likely to stay dry.

Yes the realist in me says no storms. I'd rather it stay dry anyway as any natty little showers are spoilers. It's a different story if a proper storm were to be heading this way but we're too far north for that today.

[A.J]

5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Those storms along towards Brussels and Netherlands look very violent, 130 strikes a minute so far hopefully a sign of the intensity of what may be to come across parts of Southern England later. I wonder if the far NE coast of East Anglia may see a surprise!?

Quite intrigued by the residual cloud cover pushing in from the English Channel, the cloud really seems to struggle to move north of the M4 before breaking down and producing sunnier spells. 

intrigued isn't the word I'd use to describe it....'alarming for storm chances in the current risk area' is how I'd describe this encroaching mid-level crud

Edited May 31, 2018 by ajpoolshark

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

the sun's out here but plenty of mid-level coud as well......hmm...at first glance the radar is not very inspiring but I've not had chance to peruse hi-res modelling.....however, I'm concerned and with the closeness of the leading edge of that decaying MCS, I'm already inclined to shunt the main risk zone for strong SB storms a good 100 miles further north.......thick cloud cover = no insolation = no sb storms as the general rule.....we shall see

Completely agree with this re the warnings.

[TJS1998Tom]

Is it worth keeping an eye on the lot over Germany? 

[Wilxy]

3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Okay so it's easy to see what is going on now, that clear gap moving into Wales will soon go it's just the low cloud burning off with the crud moving north now from the left overs. 

The next clear spell is behind this decaying stuff from France. You can see on SAT that showers over northern France forming already. 

Sun will aid in stronger convection today but where any storms form and start feeding off the energy up there that can form and spark sister storms around it or close by without the aid of sun. 

Note that the trigger will probably be where we get some gaps in the cloud. But with how strong the sun is now and the conditions we have, it won't take a long break in cloud to set them off. 

Times before we have had half an hour of sun add boom its go time.. Sometimes it don't. 

Patience today people, please ignore bbc weather, ignore models. Its radar and sat time... 

 

I agree and also where is irrelevant as we found out on Saturday I have a feeling the London area will do better than forecast again just like the weekend!

[Jordan S]

32 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

The state of the latest local bbc forecast...all wrong already. Had the clump of rain from this morning as showers.

Ha ha. 

On a more positive note is is brightening up a tad...still overcast though! 

The map is to give you an overall idea as to what is happening you shouldn't read too much into specific details on it.

[Dangerous55019]

The sun is now starting to really burn through the cloud here now! Milky blue skies! ... Oh boy is it hot! 

[Azazel]

As has already been alluded to, the encroaching cloud from the decaying MCS will likely inhibit surface based convection along southern coasts. Inland however, I still expect some beefy SB storms to fire. Wouldn't be surprised to see some great structure/meso-features in one or two cells later in the day.

 

Sweet spot for me would be somewhere around Oxford.

 

[tomp456]

1 minute ago, jordan smith said:

The map is to give you an overall idea as to what is happening you shouldn't read too much into specific details on it.

I'm calling a bust for the Sussex coast. 

It's all reverse Psychology really.  

 

[tomp456]

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

As has already been alluded to, the encroaching cloud from the decaying MCS will likely inhibit surface based convection along southern coasts. Inland however, I still expect some beefy SB storms to fire. Wouldn't be surprised to see some great structure/meso-features in one or two cells later in the day.

 

Sweet spot for me would be somewhere around Oxford.

 

You are almost certainly correct, but there are some gaps appearing in the cloud in the channel now....

[Azazel]

1 minute ago, tomp456 said:

You are almost certainly correct, but there are some gaps appearing in the cloud in the channel now....

Fingers crossed then my man! From past experience though, I feel i'm too far south here (in-fact its currently drizzling) so I DO expect some heavy rain bursts and maybe the odd clap of thunder, but nothing particularly interesting this close to the south coast.

[tcc]

There does appear to be some activity in the channel now 

[A.J]

Just now, Azazel said:

As has already been alluded to, the encroaching cloud from the decaying MCS will likely inhibit surface based convection along southern coasts. Inland however, I still expect some beefy SB storms to fire. Wouldn't be surprised to see some great structure/meso-features in one or two cells later in the day.

 

Sweet spot for me would be somewhere around Oxford.

 

as a guesstimate, I'd go considerably further north......southern extent a line from Cheltenham to London....northern extent north Wales to the Humber, with a sweet spot Brum to Lincolnshire,,,,,some isolated storms may fire behind the mid level detritus given enough insolation and given the energy available may be quite strong if they do occur (surrey/hants/sussex) 

[Mapantz]

Amber now issued;

[ChezWeather]

Amber warning from UKMO for the SW and South Wales

Also a yellow for the NW tomorrow

Edited May 31, 2018 by ChezWeather

[tomp456]

3 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Fingers crossed then my man! From past experience though, I feel i'm too far south here (in-fact its currently drizzling) so I DO expect some heavy rain bursts and maybe the odd clap of thunder, but nothing particularly interesting this close to the south coast.

Anything is better than nothing. 

Just pees me off when the imports die over the channel, and surface based stuff forms just out of range to hear the thunder lol 

 

It's still raining here too but is much brighter than it was! 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Amber now issued;

Is it April 1st?

[Marcus_surfer]

West country / South Wales amber alert out for severe thunderstorms

[Derecho]

It'll be interesting to hear the weather report from my friend in Utrecht if he gets back to me. Those storms are no threat here unfortunately.

Some strikes in the English Channel and I think some are underestimating the storm potential. During the day I expect inland southern areas to be best placed for these storms with perhaps more organised storms later on this evening.

The Met Office have also upgraded their warning to amber across a large part of the SW!

[MattTarrant]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Amber now issued;

Though I believe the Met Office are urging on the side of caution with recent flash flooding, an amber for thunderstorms isn't that common!