Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

[ancientsolar]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-44308123

"Officials say flooding of homes and businesses could "happen quickly" as a band of rain sweeps in from the south west."

from the South West ? is my compass broken .. or have I been lied to all my life o,o

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I’ve seen these setups enough times to know what happens and work schedule only allows me to be rooted to my desk for 10-12hrs a day

Fair enough. Hope you see something - what’s your view like from your desk?

i got stuck in a basement for 1/2 Tuesday - was getting really agitated, no view and no signal knowing there’s storms about - it’s horrible

[Evening thunder]

Well we had some moderate rain early yesterday morning but I didn't expect anything else.

I'm not expecting anything for me today, despite some forecasts having me surprisingly close to/in a significant risk area. Onshore breeze here so nothing surface based, little CAPE at any level for me today and tonight which to me suggests maybe some rain/showers from decaying or weak elevated convection and the precip charts seem to agree.

The Met Office still talk about thunderstorms, hail and lightning for the SW without saying anything about the distribution.
However they have forecast the risk of thunderstorms, and sometimes 'disruption' most days including Tuesday night, and on Sunday when it seemed clear the SW was unlikely to get any.

Ah well. I hope to never hear any more posts saying the SW gets more storms than the SE etc 

Could be good for some though.

[Frosty hollows]

It might have lost electrical activity, but that import looks like it's organising as it moves inland and the rain intensifying

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Referring and correcting to my earlier post, that in the channel is nowhere near a MCS by the way, and never was! A MCS would or have been throwing out tonnes of lightning and miles bigger. The term is used way to often nowadays, when really referring to a multicell storm at best. 

This is what a proper MCS looks like, just to bring things down onto a real level! 

[ancientsolar]

1 minute ago, Frosty hollows said:

It might have lost electrical activity, but that import looks like it's organising as it moves inland and the rain intensifying

yes, and given the metoffice warning starts at 11am ,.. and we're already seeing really potent torrential downpours .. .. makes me wonder.. .. could we be in for the biggest storm day of storm days this year?

[Jordan S]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

Unfortunately the mcs in the channel is losing its oomph! New cells may fire of to its north east however looking at what will be a big wet mess by the time it gets here, the speed it’s moving and debris it’ll leave behind today will be a bust for Bournemouth. 

It’s too early to come to any conclusion of how organised things will be today and I think perhaps inland will see more activity but we just have to wait and see how it all comes off. ️

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Referring and correcting to my earlier post, that in the channel is nowhere near a MCS by the way, and never was! A MCS would or have been throwing out tonnes of lightning and miles bigger. The term is used way to often nowadays, when really referring to a multicell storm at best. 

This is what a proper MCS looks like, just to bring things down onto a real level! 

Yes off-course but what is in the channel is a decaying MCS, it looked liked your picture when it was over Switzerland.

[ancientsolar]

1 minute ago, jordan smith said:

It’s too early to come to any conclusion of how organised things will be today and I think perhaps inland will see more activity but we just have to wait and see how it all comes off. ️

yes wait and see.. it always comes down to that .. but we love looking at trends in storms.. and they always spin us different hooks .. confirming or denying us of our predictions. 

[Jordan S]

2 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

yes wait and see.. it always comes down to that .. but we love looking at trends in storms.. and they always spin us different hooks .. confirming or denying us of our predictions. 

Yes your right But I think today’s thunderstorms will be pretty darn severe in a few localities.

[ancientsolar]

1 minute ago, jordan smith said:

Yes your right But I think today’s thunderstorms will be pretty darn severe in a few localities.

the only issue I have.. it's cloudy. no beautiful sun BBQing the land for the storms.

[lottiekent]

So an exciting day in the pipeline for some!

Normally “lucky” when it comes to storms here (not far inland from Folkestone for mobile users), we’ve not had much luck at all the last few days. Storms have gone past to the north, south and west and even started here as a single rumble only to go on to be epic storms inland!

Hoping for something later on after a bit of surface heating gets things going over France, an import might be my best chance. 

However the luck may carry on the same...the latest radar grab shows it going all around us already...

[Jordan S]

5 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

the only issue I have.. it's cloudy. no beautiful sun BBQing the land for the storms.

There should be some sun appearing in places to aid in surface heating but thunderstorms will also be imported from France today.

[dave reid]

Goood morning all from a slightly murky south coast. I'll be finished work in an hr I've got a full tank in the van and my inverter turned up for the laptop......time to chase !!!!!

 

Where to begin is the question.

I don't have access to the full charts just basic and from what that shows me I kinda like the wind profiles north of Brighton ish. There's a slightly stronger jet from what I've seen and coupled with convergence zone / backed winds we have some shear potential.

 

But will I end up playing catch up when it all kicks of to the west?? 

Is there anywhere offering free charts and live wind Maps that I could refine/ adjust my plans as needed. 

 

Good luck everyone

[LightningLover]

we have some fairly heavy convective rainfall right now.

[tomp456]

BOOOOM!!!!!

 

That’s not the sound of thunder, that’s the sound of storm chances vanishing for the West Sussex coast 

 

[Jordan S]

Just now, dave reid said:

Goood morning all from a slightly murky south coast. I'll be finished work in an hr I've got a full tank in the van and my inverter turned up for the laptop......time to chase !!!!!

 

Where to begin is the question.

I don't have access to the full charts just basic and from what that shows me I kinda like the wind profiles north of Brighton ish. There's a slightly stronger jet from what I've seen and coupled with convergence zone / backed winds we have some shear potential.

 

But will I end up playing catch up when it all kicks of to the west?? 

Is there anywhere offering free charts and live wind Maps that I could refine/ adjust my plans as needed. 

 

Good luck everyone

Xcweather you can use for free and just my guess is that the south and West Midlands and places like Wiltshire might be the best places but not certainty on that!

[Frosty hollows]

Sun is out in CS England at last!

[ancientsolar]

What we all want is some development like that of Amsterdam , exploding into life over the last 45minutes

[Jordan S]

1 minute ago, ancientsolar said:

What we all want is some development like that of Amsterdam , exploding into life over the last 45minutes

That’s likely to happen in a few places today.

[tomp456]

Want the sun out but it’s still raining 

But I can see some gaps in the channel on satellite  so hopefully in the next couple of hours my wish will be granted. 

Edited May 31, 2018 by tomp456

[lottiekent]

10 minutes ago, dave reid said:

Goood morning all from a slightly murky south coast. I'll be finished work in an hr I've got a full tank in the van and my inverter turned up for the laptop......time to chase !!!!!

 

Where to begin is the question.

I don't have access to the full charts just basic and from what that shows me I kinda like the wind profiles north of Brighton ish. There's a slightly stronger jet from what I've seen and coupled with convergence zone / backed winds we have some shear potential.

 

But will I end up playing catch up when it all kicks of to the west?? 

Is there anywhere offering free charts and live wind Maps that I could refine/ adjust my plans as needed. 

 

Good luck everyone

This site is reasonable for watching wind:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=1.19,54.16,3000

[dave reid]

2 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

This site is reasonable for watching wind:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=1.19,54.16,3000

Thanks

Is that live or based on forecast winds?

 

[dave reid]

13 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Xcweather you can use for free and just my guess is that the south and West Midlands and places like Wiltshire might be the best places but not certainty on that!

Lovely I'll check it out

Thanks 

[Norfolk Sheep]

There's not a single forecast giving me anything but mist and murk with maybe a sunny spell at 3pm *sigh*