Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

[tomp456]

Got a feeling somewhere today is going to see a mothership supercell, an f5 tornado, green skies & flying cows.

 

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

34 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

If I start hearing rumbles, and seeing flashes in tonight's thick fog, I'll let you know.

Thunderfog is the worst thing I can think of...

Apart from not having thunder at all

[Mapantz]

I hope tomorrow's weather doesn't follow the 18Z NetWx SR, as that draws a blank for here.

On the plus side;

[Norfolk Sheep]

2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Surely you’re not that far out of the action zone?

Not a huge amount but every time there's a risk map the low or no risk area always carves through mid Norfolk, excluding my area and those east or north of Norwich. Must be to do with the permanent onshore breeze!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

4 hours ago, Alderc said:

Again I’d be surprised to see anything on the south coast, the elevated plume looks iffy and clearly nothing surfaced will develop here! To be honest living down here I don’t know what a surface based storm would look like in the summer lol! 

Have a look on YouTube of the storms on 28th June 2012 

[Norfolk Sheep]

NW gives a higher risk for my area on Friday, MetO says no it's Thursday. Makes yer minds up!

Edited May 31, 2018 by Norfolk Sheep

[Jordan S]

This is my view on where I think the worst of any thunderstorms will be and where the most frequent thunderstorms are likely to occur but thunderstorms are likely to develop outside this area aswell the arrow also indicates the general track of the thunderstorms that I think they will take but ofcourse this is my Prediction it’s not a certainty but hope it’s useful. ️

[Guest]

4 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Have a look on YouTube of the storms on 28th June 2012 

Was a tongue in cheek response and I know all about them however they weren’t here. Summertime surface based storms here are incredibly rare here as I’m less than 2miles from the sea!

[Dougal]

2 hours ago, jordan smith said:

This is my view on where I think the worst of any thunderstorms will be and where the most frequent thunderstorms are likely to occur but thunderstorms are likely to develop outside this area aswell the arrow also indicates the general track of the thunderstorms that I think they will take but ofcourse this is my Prediction it’s not a certainty but hope it’s useful. ️

Degrading rapidly as it crosses the EC. Thick fog over most of S England too. Will it burn off in time for home grown storms?

[Guest]

2 hours ago, jordan smith said:

This is my view on where I think the worst of any thunderstorms will be and where the most frequent thunderstorms are likely to occur but thunderstorms are likely to develop outside this area aswell the arrow also indicates the general track of the thunderstorms that I think they will take but ofcourse this is my Prediction it’s not a certainty but hope it’s useful. ️

Unfortunately the mcs in the channel is losing its oomph! New cells may fire of to its north east however looking at what will be a big wet mess by the time it gets here, the speed it’s moving and debris it’ll leave behind today will be a bust for Bournemouth. 

[The PIT]

Nothing for us today make or break tomorrow.

[Dangerous55019]

Morning all 
Just had chance to have a quick butchers at the Cape and LI charts, and i have to say that they don't look too shabby, for today and tomorrow! 
Sorry I haven't got chance to post all of them, so I've just cherry picked two charts... One for this afternoon, and one for tomorrow, both from the GFS 00z run.
Usual health warnings apply, but as always, good luck to everyone on this, and lets hope that today is another good day of storms for all of us. 

I'll try and update, as and when time allows, as I'm orf to work now.
*pulls boots on and heads off out*

[Guest]

Wow our friend in the channel is decaying quickly! This is not a good sign for today for many and could render a lot of the chart useless.

adding to that I would probably remove all th warnings for the south coast and push them at least 20-40miles inland.

Edited May 31, 2018 by Alderc

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Wow our friend in the channel is decaying quickly! This is not a good sign for today for many and could render a lot of the chart useless.

adding to that I would probably remove all th warnings for the south coast and push them at least 20-40miles inland.

I think Convective Weather has it roughly nailed. No point making any other guesses it’s gonna be one of those strange days where it does what it wants - esp considering the mix of forcings we’re dealing with.

Elevated convection mixed up with surface - interesting combo - just add Sun!

[Cableguy]

Far from a bust but that decaying MCS is very bad news

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Wish that MCS was as active as what our fellow stormchasers are probably witnessing right now in Oklahoma/Kansas, my word it’s chucking out a serious amount of lightning! 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

12 minutes ago, Cableguy said:

Far from a bust but that decaying MCS is very bad news

Its actually spotted on all models. What is also very apparent is that the focus seems to be on western areas more than Eastern areas. Most models break showers and thunderstorms ahead of the main storms in the channel now. Expecting it to gain some oomph though 

Edited May 31, 2018 by Surrey

[Joe Pineapples]

Hi guys,

First post here. Hope you enjoy. Here's the view in Brighton looking south east a moment ago. No processing/filtering on this image either.

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Joe Pineapples said:

Hi guys,

First post here. Hope you enjoy. Here's the view in Brighton looking south east a moment ago. No processing/filtering on this image either.

Wow - you can see things! If I hold my arm out in front of me I can’t see my hand!!

[Harry]

Every source I’ve seen suggests storm development from 11-12z onwards. Therefore I’d be inclined to ignore charts and models, sit tight and see what occurs. Also I’m not too alarmed by the encroaching MCS remains; the hours of storms here on Tuesday developed in misty/cloudy conditions - if anything it’s more humid now compared to then

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Harry said:

Every source I’ve seen suggests storm development from 11-12z onwards. Therefore I’d be inclined to ignore charts and models, sit tight and see what occurs. Also I’m not too alarmed by the encroaching MCS remains; the hours of storms here on Tuesday developed in misty/cloudy conditions - if anything it’s more humid now compared to then

Inland, I’m not so concerned about the risk as that is almost entirely dependant on surface heating, being on the south coast this mcs was the only real hope.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Inland, I’m not so concerned about the risk as that is almost entirely dependant on surface heating, being on the south coast this mcs was the only real hope.

Think you’re being a little pessimistic so early on in the day - just take it easy see what happens.

Better still (and if you have the time and resources to do it) head inland a little and wait there.

Storms do what storms do

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I

can

see

 

BLUE

SKY!!!!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Anyone seen the sat loop this morning? That lot coming into the south coast is growing and going up! 

 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Think you’re being a little pessimistic so early on in the day - just take it easy see what happens.

Better still (and if you have the time and resources to do it) head inland a little and wait there.

Storms do what storms do

I’ve seen these setups enough times to know what happens and work schedule only allows me to be rooted to my desk for 10-12hrs a day