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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Main areas at risk at the moment for heavy rain at least  seem to be from London area in a diagonal line to north Wales  over the next 48 hour period  

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
32 minutes ago, Harry said:

Really @Flash bang flash bang etc? Feels much more humid here again this evening compared with the last couple of days. That could just be from all the rain recently,  but either way fresh it is not.

But then it very quickly felt very humid - I must confess I’ve been on an enclosed hot building site al day so my internal thermometer could be playing havoc - although the actual temperature gauge on my cat showed a leap of about 3° earlier in the space of 20 mins

Read of that what you will

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)

*This is an update in response to the 12z runs (My Own Forecast)

VALID 6:00 UTC Thurs 31 May 2018 - 11:59 UTC Thurs 31 May 2018

The coverage of elevated thunderstorms in the beginning of the forecast period looks increasingly uncertain, with some models reducing the extent (Euro4 most pronounced in coverage). Increasing confidence though in the extent & location of surface based storms within the 12z model suite (MDT Region On Map). This is, however, a dynamic setup, radar & satellite will be useful tools in this forecast period. 

image.thumb.png.3bdcc3c5248c976a54a3af9ca9d4f80c.png

Criteria Key:

LOW (Grey) = 10 - 20% of lightning within 25 miles

SLGT (Green) = 20 - 45% of lightning within 25 miles

MDT (Yellow) = 45 - 60% of lightning within 25 miles

High (Red) = >60% of lightning within 25 miles

Severe (Dotted) = Notable threat to life and/or buildings

 

Edited by MattTarrant
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tomorrow could be pretty spectacular storm wise..according to my weather app.⛈️

IMG_20180530_193153.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

Once again tomo I’ll be up at the Shard - so should we find ourselves in a storm I think there is a good chance of a direct hit

(It was hit on Saturday night so I’ve been told...)

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Posted
  • Location: spalding lincolnshire
  • Location: spalding lincolnshire
18 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Once again tomo I’ll be up at the Shard - so should we find ourselves in a storm I think there is a good chance of a direct hit

(It was hit on Saturday night so I’ve been told...)

And you will be in it. You are braver then me 

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

If the Beeb forecast is to be believed then the storms will be missing me in Worthing, which means after a brief hiatus, my storm shield will be back on. 

image.thumb.png.72244058732d7bba5d84f9d154ea753e.png

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Posted
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey
1 minute ago, tomp456 said:

If the Beeb forecast is to be believed then the storms will be missing me in Worthing, which means after a brief hiatus, my storm shield will be back on. 

image.thumb.png.72244058732d7bba5d84f9d154ea753e.png

Payment for using the word FUNDER the other day

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Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
58 minutes ago, pad199207 said:

Has anyone seen the lightning rate on the storms just North of Zurich? 

This is on the NE Swiss border, some lightning strikes visible there.. as the storm approaches! 

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
1 minute ago, Cableguy said:

Payment for using the word FUNDER the other day

I'll be using much more colorful language if the storms do skip merrily round me. 

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7 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

If the Beeb forecast is to be believed then the storms will be missing me in Worthing, which means after a brief hiatus, my storm shield will be back on. 

image.thumb.png.72244058732d7bba5d84f9d154ea753e.png

She’s the worst weather presenter on Tv! She really hasn’t got a clue what’s she talking about!!

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Posted
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey
  • Location: West Byfleet, Surrey
7 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

I'll be using much more colorful language if the storms do skip merrily round me. 

Joking aside can't see you missing out tomorrow(far from it).

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Looks like tomorrow into Friday is my best and last chance to see thunderstorms this week. They can’t avoid me forever. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
16 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

If the Beeb forecast is to be believed then the storms will be missing me in Worthing, which means after a brief hiatus, my storm shield will be back on. 

image.thumb.png.72244058732d7bba5d84f9d154ea753e.png

I've got used to our Lincoln storm shield lately, hope that changes some point this Summer. Still if not tomorrow, Friday looking possible : P

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Holy moley.

 

Tomorrow does indeed look good.

ukprec.png

South of brum looks very good.

ukwind.png

Plenty of energy about.

ukcapeli.png

ukstormrisk.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
3 hours ago, Supacell said:

What is going on in here?!? This thread is normally a friendly place where people who all share an interest of storms congregate. It is not a place for arguments! I have just got back in from work to catch up on the afternoons updates and feel like I have been transported into a creche. Come on, lets keep it friendly or posts will be disappear.

Welcome to the new winter thread!!! Just need the Murr scale of lightening strikes and it will be like december all over again

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex

Very exciting tweet from the normally reliable Essex Weather Centre... 

 

633616B0-4DC2-4C9A-97F2-C25DDB6D4582.png

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
11 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

North west bbc ENO Eroterrerrer is far worse 

Or the dreaded Ox!

Edited by Chris.R
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Again I’d be surprised to see anything on the south coast, the elevated plume looks iffy and clearly nothing surfaced will develop here! To be honest living down here I don’t know what a surface based storm would look like in the summer lol! 

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