Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Sun is out properly now and temp is responding quickly. Currently 24.1°C. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Retford
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather
  • Location: Retford

Between what's times are storms going to kick off because every forecast says different. 

I guess it's another day of radar watching. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Retford
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather
  • Location: Retford
25 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Sun is out properly now and temp is responding quickly. Currently 24.1°C. 

27.5 here. The humidity is rising and I tried moving my weather thing in different shady spots of the garden and I'm still getting that temperature. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
18 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

27.5 here. The humidity is rising and I tried moving my weather thing in different shady spots of the garden and I'm still getting that temperature. 

What are the skies like?

(Pls don’t say “purple and red and on fire” )

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Don't think there will be anything down south today now, maybe the odd isolated storm.

Best place today is in the NW / Midlands and prospects are dependant on how well that line of storms N of Bristol keeps going as the line of storms gradually shifts further north.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Retford
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather
  • Location: Retford
3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

What are the skies like?

(Pls don’t say “purple and red and on fire” )

Steaming AC all around. Sometimes comes above us and sometimes goes to the sides of us. It's looking good here. I saw reports of j

Streaming AC in Norwich as well which would also put me slap bang in the path of storms. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales

Looks like the popcorn sky has started. ?️

C256FD54-6991-4248-8758-15E255F9589C.jpeg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

A pile of rubbish here......and the NMM has been utterly wrong....the 06z nmm has just come out and it's first two frames (which have already happened) are absolutely way out......for some time now it's been by far the worst of hi-res models, so am surprised NW still use and charge for it?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Retford
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather
  • Location: Retford

I can small towers go up now to my northeast but it's hard to tell in the south east of where I am because there's a massive tree line blocking my view but I'm sure there's small towers behind the tree line because that's where the streaming AC is coming from. 

Edited by Swansonson69
Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

27.5 here. The humidity is rising and I tried moving my weather thing in different shady spots of the garden and I'm still getting that temperature. 

Must be an over read by 3-4c? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk

Still reasonable amount of Ac about. Very warm when the wind subsides. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
11 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

A pile of rubbish here......and the NMM has been utterly wrong....the 06z nmm has just come out and it's first two frames (which have already happened) are absolutely way out......for some time now it's been by far the worst of hi-res models, so am surprised NW still use and charge for it?

Has been very poor, have to admit though a few of the earlier runs were consistent of the storm running up towards the west country about 7-8am, which is exactly what had happened. 

The worst bit about it, is the inconsistency I feel.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

A few bits of AcCas around in the sky from this early morning's leftovers but it's mostly clear skies with the humidity shooting upwards.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

The most accurate forecasts so far have been the BBC by a country mile.

Considering our poorest chance was last night according to some models and it was amazing I just don' know what to expect anymore. 

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Retford
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather
  • Location: Retford
5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Must be an over read by 3-4c? 

I don't know, it's still going up, it says 29.1 now. I've been moving it to other shady spots and it keeps going up. 

Edited by Swansonson69
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
21 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

A pile of rubbish here......and the NMM has been utterly wrong....the 06z nmm has just come out and it's first two frames (which have already happened) are absolutely way out......for some time now it's been by far the worst of hi-res models, so am surprised NW still use and charge for it?

Kind of cover this every year, *all* hires models have a period of spin up for convective weather, so you're better taking the previous run for the early times in a run. We've actually significantly improved the spin-up time on the nmm since last summer (as well as upping the res to 3km, and changing the physics), but even so, the first few frames will always underplay convective cloud/rain.

Beyond spin-up, from what I've seen it's performed as well as anything else, ie  - not spot on all the time, but close enough more often than not, which is about as good as you get most of the time in these situations. I think it's widely accepted that in stormy situations radar watching is the way forward for the details, no model will perfectly provide them.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

Have to agree it's been very poor, have to admit though a few of the earlier runs were consistent of the storm running up towards the west country about 7-8am, which is exactly what had happened. 

The worst bit about it, is the inconsistency I feel.

These plume setups are notoriously difficult to model and forecast, a fact which was once again proven last night!

Good to see plenty of people getting a storm fix last night anyway, especially anyone who chased big distances!

Unfortunately for me, my choice of vehicle makes it rather expensive to chase anything thats not local

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Towers now beginning to go up looking towards the Macclesfield direction.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
7 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

I don't know, it's still going up, it says 29.1 now. I've been moving it to other shady spots and it keeps going up. 

It has to be like 100% shade. On the north side of the house so Absolutely no energy from the sun of any kind can get to it. Really awkward if you have limited space. You could buy a screen as well but they’re not that cheap. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
6 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Towers now beginning to go up looking towards the Macclesfield direction.

Yes,can see them from here,two minutes apart.

DSC01907.thumb.JPG.3c61025ebe8976c6db1e437b7a8bc6f8.JPGDSC01908.thumb.JPG.f3a4f0da6a054fd05aa0666b1a49f393.JPG

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bridgwater,somerset
  • Location: Bridgwater,somerset

Severe weather Europe (Facebook page) mentions good conditions for storms in the south and south West today but no mention of it here or anywhere else. Is anything expected down south today ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Retford
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather
  • Location: Retford
1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

It has to be like 100% shade. On the north side of the house so Absolutely no energy from the sun of any kind can get to it. Really awkward if you have limited space. You could buy a screen as well but they’re not that cheap. 

I know, it's on the north side in a spot that gets no sun through out the entire day. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
13 minutes ago, Paul said:

Kind of cover this every year, *all* hires models have a period of spin up for convective weather, so you're better taking the previous run for the early times in a run. We've actually significantly improved the spin-up time on the nmm since last summer (as well as upping the res to 3km, and changing the physics), but even so, the first few frames will always underplay convective cloud/rain.

Beyond spin-up, from what I've seen it's performed as well as anything else, ie  - not spot on all the time, but close enough more often than not, which is about as good as you get most of the time in these situations. I think it's widely accepted that in stormy situations radar watching is the way forward for the details, no model will perfectly provide them.

Hey Paul. Is there a storm forecast from Nick F today 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...