Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

[Frosty hollows]

Same here. Clear blue skies and temps still rising.  Currently 24 c

[James86]

Looking to my SEE from Hedge End, Southampton.

[Joe Levy]

Thunder getting louder and more frequent here in Exeter! Exciting!

[Wilxy]

Strikes now! Quite a few suddenly in Exeter!

[Evening thunder]

A few pics, first looking east showing this cell in its infancy, 2nd looking east a few mins ago showing more developments, and the 3rd looking west a few mins ago towards where the thunders coming from

 

Thunder is much more frequent than Blitzortung is showing, but sounds quite high up within the cell with most being quite short rumbles.

Edited May 26, 2018 by Evening thunder

[James86]

And slightly to the east of that

[tomp456]

3 minutes ago, Storm mad said:

That MCS in France is exploding...I don't mean to get anyone's hopes up but these things can develop a mind of their own regards which direction it travels..almost like a mini low pressure and they can go against the steering winds...it appears to be moving directly north atm...hopefully some will be pleased and have stories to share...best of luck everyone...maybe expect the unexpected...!!

If it heads straight north where’s it going to hit over here?

the sat pages are crashing on my phone 

[pad199207]

Just like a click of the fingers

[billyc]

Just randomly started raining here, just a quick shower but it looks like the radar is showing a number of heavy showers pepping up now just off the coast.

[Joe Levy]

Very heavy rain now with huge droplets, the thunder is nearly continuous now

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

4 minutes ago, Storm mad said:

That MCS in France is exploding...I don't mean to get anyone's hopes up but these things can develop a mind of their own regards which direction it travels..almost like a mini low pressure and they can go against the steering winds...it appears to be moving directly north atm...hopefully some will be pleased and have stories to share...best of luck everyone...maybe expect the unexpected...!!

The more powerful ones will have a tendency to travel normally 30 degrees east of the mean steering flow aloft, hence the term ‘right mover’, which is what that storm in France currently appears to be. If a storm starts veering right, it often is an indicator that it has developed severe characteristics. 

[A.J]

probably beaten to the punch, but cells firing just of the dorser/east devon coast

[LightningLover]

3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

The more powerful ones will have a tendency to travel normally 30 degrees east of the mean steering flow aloft, hence the term ‘right mover’, which is what that storm in France currently appears to be. If a storm starts veering right, it often is an indicator that it has developed severe characteristics. 

Well, I’ve learnt something new! That’s actually quite interesting, I’ll have to bear that in mind!

[Swansonson69]

Yea, that beast in France is moving straight up north along the east coast of the UK. How long could that storm last?

Edited May 26, 2018 by Swansonson69

[Harry]

The sky to my south here looks primed to explode and I’m on tbe Kent coast. All models I’ve seen keep us dry but I’ve got my fingers crossed

[Storm mad]

8 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

The more powerful ones will have a tendency to travel normally 30 degrees east of the mean steering flow aloft, hence the term ‘right mover’, which is what that storm in France currently appears to be. If a storm starts veering right, it often is an indicator that it has developed severe characteristics. 

Thanks for explaining...I'm not very knowledgeable and have learnt something too...good luck...

[Ben Sainsbury]

I don't know if it's just me, but the MCS looks like in the process of splitting indicated by lack of lightning in the middle of the storm track.

As a result, I expect the west side to die off, and for the east side to continue spitting out sferics and to head towards the far SE.

[viking_smb]

1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I don't know if it's just me, but the MCS looks like in the process of splitting indicated by lack of lightning in the middle of the storm track.

As a result, I expect the west side to die off, and for the east side to continue spitting out sferics and to head towards the far SE.

It looks like it, I expect the west side will become just heavy rain and hit west dorset devon west somerset and south wales, and the eastern side will go up the dover strait and continue to chuck out sferics, there are some thundery showers off Weymouth by the look of things, which will move north west wards

[LightningLover]

Just had a very light rain shower out of nowhere, the sun is still shining, too. The cloud base is very high! As I type, slightly larger convective drops are falling.

[poseidon]

FYI, Tony Gilbert over on ukww has extended his risk box to cover Eastern side of the UK also based on current obs.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/119140-convective-outlook-sat-26th-may-2018/page__st__15

 

Edited May 26, 2018 by poseidon

[Swansonson69]

1 minute ago, poseidon said:

FYI, Tony Gilbert over on ukww has extended his risk box to cover Eastern side of the UK also based on current obs.

That's great news. That means I'm in the risk area. 

[Guest]

Got a feeling the Bournemouth/Southampton area could in the dead zone if that mcs is splitting.

[Thunderstruck]

Met Office now fancying storms overnight for me! Yay! Certainly feels and looks ripe...

[amybonnie98]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Got a feeling the Bournemouth/Southampton area could in the dead zone if that mcs is splitting.

Sadly looking that way!

[Ben Sainsbury]

Just now, Alderc said:

Got a feeling the Bournemouth/Southampton area could in the dead zone if that mcs is splitting.

Possibly in which case, much of West Country into Wiltshire, S Wales and S Midlands may see nothing. However I feel the western clag of the split MCS will track much much further west but we won't know until it happens.