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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
4 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

Well I've been reading the posts for some time now...and swotting up. 

You are in my neck of the woods so I take that as a good sign . Will be out for a chase later when I have finished work.

In the meantime, keep up the great posts all - perfect aid for learning more

Yeah think I’ve found a good spot. Want to be much further south ideally though, for when the channel gets going...

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Hoping the clear skies we have in the Pennines remain throughout the night, unlikely, but more interesting than being in the storms is being in a clear-patch of sky and watching the anvil heads lighting up. I'm optimistic we'll see something here but keeping in mind that it's down to RADAR watching from here on.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
49 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

What’s a TAF?

a truncated welshman I think

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

This really is a loaded gun situation isn’t it

Enough of an inversion to keep things held down but a huge amount of insolation to keep piping that energy into the system.

I really do expect we will see something rather significant this evening and overnight

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent

Setup looks very promising for tonight but I've been here before only to be disappointed. I can't help getting a little excited though. Was out very late last night so staying put tonight and hoping storms come to me. Incredibly hot and humid here. Feels like there's loads of energy just waiting to be released. Will be watching the radar tonight with interest and hoping that this time we actually get a decent night time storm. Good luck everyone.

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Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow events / Wind storms
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex

Why have Estofex not put out a forecast today at all? I was sure they still do them over the weekends

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
1 minute ago, The East has Ceased said:

Why have Estofex not put out a forecast today at all? I was sure they still do them over the weekends

Someone mentioned potential staffing issues . There’s definitely something up

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

Is the wind supposed to drop later? If not, I would have thought these storms would be racing along, making chasing very difficult.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
3 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Is the wind supposed to drop later? If not, I would have thought these storms would be racing along, making chasing very difficult.

I think it should die down to approx 15km/h but I don’t know if that’s still fast or not  

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Skies are quite hazy just SW of Oxford and it is feeling much more humid than back at home. I will be viewing the 12z hi res outputs for the latest thoughts and then be radar watching for the evening.

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

I noticed this bit of text earlier:

"Note: bifurcating flow tends to leave a gap between two main clusters of thunderstorms"
http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-05-26

That will be here then 
Hopefully not, but been there a few times in recent years.

A fair bit of mid level cloud recently, including some Ac Cas, starting to clear more now. No sign of anything to my SE on satellite but it's early, wasn't meant to really get going until this evening.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire

Staying at my parents in Weymouth. Off out for dinner in a bit then ready for (hopefully) a decent show out over Portland later on x

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, humid & exciting
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
54 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Hello fellow Belper-ite, what on earth takes you so far away from home?

 

I am a little bit behind you, currently near Oxford weighing up the options.

I find the Derbyshire climate at this time of year... Specifically this evening... Disagreeable :D

Arrived in Sailsbury, just going to find a good vantage point and wait and see. Gl mate

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Posted
  • Location: Sherborne dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms. Warm weather. Not hot or cold weather.
  • Location: Sherborne dorset

lightning in cornwall

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

12z arome is not that great, apart from the far SW...reluctant to fire many storms elsewhere overnight....lets hope it's wrong

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
3 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

12z arome is not that great, apart from the far SW...reluctant to fire many storms elsewhere overnight....lets hope it's wrong

Yea that is what I was thinking but I guess it always comes down to now-casting in these set ups. Fingers crossed. Does have another batch of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon further to the NE.

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Look at this...signs of instability appearing over the Kent coastline. 

3BE44FD9-3F7B-4741-8936-F1EB018AC601.jpeg

447FC678-CF47-4497-9E19-58BBD82CC322.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)

From a completely clear afternoon around here, cloud has suddenly started to bubble up.

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Wont be long now.

Activity starting in the SW.

 

image.thumb.png.44dbfef1061ecde8c668631055064fa3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

It look's like the cap is still in place here. Cu bubbling up, but flattening out quick quickly.

Here's the SR rain totals. Not to be taken at face value, obviously.

viewimage.thumb.png.34a8a58004b680f212314b6056010676.png

Edited by Mapantz
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