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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

Had some rain here now. Expected, as was the nearest electrical activity being 250 miles away. Hopefully a better weekend for storm lovers.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
9 hours ago, Tom dewey likes thunder said:

I wait live Madrid webcam in Spain and it has got sound I hear people in the city center and the thunder from a big full on thunderstorm going over their 

I was watching this too - saw the storm approaching but needed to sleep so I missed the main event

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

This really good post from Tony over at UKWW regarding potential for East Anglia later on today (provided the right synoptics are available of course!)

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/119130-convective-outlook-fri-25th-may-2018/page__pid__1048390#entry1048390

I never thought about CIN being eroded top-down. Makes sense though under the appropriate atmospheric conditions I guess...

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 25 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 26 May 2018

ISSUED 07:39 UTC Fri 25 May 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 07:39 UTC Forecast re-issued due to a technical error
 

Heavy rain with embedded elevated convective elements will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period over East Anglia / Midlands / Wales / northern England. This will continue to drift north while weakening, with any remaining sporadic lightning over East Anglia / Lincs soon decaying as instability weakens. 

 
In its wake, extensive low cloud and mist (with coastal fog) will cover much of southern Britain, though this should gradually thin and break with better insolation developing for the afternoon. Sea breezes will then develop provided there is enough surface heating, which will then provide the focus for a few isolated heavy showers / thunderstorms over southern counties of England.  
 
Over East Anglia, residual high dewpoint air (15-16C) combined with strong insolation and proximity to a shortwave trough should help yield up to 1,000 J/kg CAPE. Much of this will be capped, especially if surface temperatures fail to reach the low 20s Celsius (depending on how quickly the morning cloud clears), but sea breeze convergence may be enough to trigger an isolated intense thunderstorm. Warm noses aloft also raise some concerns over how deep convection may grow. Confidence is not particularly high, but a low-end SLGT has been issued to highlight the area of interest. While shear is weak, it may be sufficient to support some marginal supercell characteristics, capable of producing hail up to 2.0cm and perhaps some localised surface water flooding. Low cloud bases and backed low-level winds, combined with convergence, suggests the potential at least for a weak tornado.
 
On Friday night, a cluster of thunderstorms will likely develop over northern France eventually drifting northwards across the English Channel. While there is potential for the remnants to bring an increase risk of lightning to southern coastal counties east of the Isle of Wight, there is some uncertainty as to how quickly this activity may decay. A SLGT may be required if confidence increases.
 
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Posted
  • Location: Warminster Wiltshire
  • Weather Preferences: All types
  • Location: Warminster Wiltshire

Met office put a yellow for south and west for tomorrow and it was exposed to get sunny in Warminster in Wiltshire today but it's just cloudy and not that warm

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

Supposed to be climbing Snowdon Summit this weekend. Forecast has deteriorated throughout the week for that location so it could be a wasted journey if its wet...  Although as long as the climbing is done early enough to get back for any light shows, I'll be happy!

Edited by Karl83
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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Seems to be very much changing all the times in terms of potential for my area. Think this will come down to nowcasting.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Between 14:00 Fri 25th and 21:00 Fri 25th

Thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and evening leading to some heavy rain and lightning.

What to expect

  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, causing damage to some buildings
  • Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a slight chance of delays or cancellations to train and bus services
  • Spray and flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
  • Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a slight chance of power cuts and loss of other services to some homes and businesses
  • East Midlands
  • East of England

Further details

Isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon and early evening could give as much as 20-30 mm of rain in an hour before slowly dying out during the late evening. As is often the case when thunderstorms are forecast, many areas will miss the storms. However where they do occur, torrential rain is quite likely, and with hail in a few places.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-05-25

 

___________________________________________________________________________________

Between 06:00 Sat 26th and 23:59 Sun 27th

Heavy showers and thunderstorms will affect parts of Southern Britain this weekend.

What to expect

  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater, lightning strikes, hail or strong winds
  • There is a small chance of fast flowing or deep floodwater causing danger to life
  • Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services
  • Spray and sudden flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
  • There is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads, there is a slight chance that power cuts could occur and other services to some homes and businesses could be lost
  • East Midlands
  • East of England
  • London & South East England
  • North West England
  • South West England
  • Wales
  • West Midlands

Further details

Very warm and humid conditions will lead to thunderstorms developing across parts of Southern England, the South and West Midlands and Wales on both Saturday and Sunday. Thunderstorms will produce torrential rain and hail in places with up to 30 mm falling in an hour, while some places may miss the worst of the heavy rain.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-05-26

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Synoptically, the early hours of Sunday morning (27th) are looking very similar to the 27th May last year, and that brought some amazing thunderstorms to the SW. Cornwall, Devon, Somerset and Dorset got nailed. It could be the perfect anniversary.

 

 

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
12 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Synoptically, the early hours of Sunday morning (27th) are looking very similar to the 27th May last year, and that brought some amazing thunderstorms to the SW. Cornwall, Devon, Somerset and Dorset got nailed. It could be the perfect anniversary.

 

 

That looked insane, I remember watching it live on the Plymouth and Bude webcams! Proper strobe event and decent even for worldwide standards, let alone the UK and even more so Cornwall and Devon! Then just weeks after, we saw another monster clip the SE. I’m so glad we have kind of returned to seeing these big night storm events, which frankly looked extinct back in the likes of 2007-12. 

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Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
27 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I’m so glad we have kind of returned to seeing these big night storm events, which frankly looked extinct back in the likes of 2007-12. 

Speak for yourself! I'm still waiting for my big night time storm event.

Edited by Windblade
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
23 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Speak for yourself! I'm still waiting for my big night time storm event.

Been 3 years since our last big night storm event, hoping for a gooden this year but we seem to have a storm shield as they always go around us : P

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

There is some heavy showers developing around here at the minute and intensifying.

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Posted
  • Location: Southampton
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and thunderstorms, snow in winter
  • Location: Southampton

Bad timing this for me, I'm supposed to be driving up to Northants tomorrow to see family, yet Saturday night into Sunday looks to be the best potential. Thinking of delaying going up until Sunday now, I'm sure they'll understand!

We've been spoiled here with the incredible storm a month ago as well as the overnighter last July, which has given me much more confidence in these actually coming off. Looking forward to the next few days! 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I’m in EC London - figured i could take the long route home in case anything pops up but I can’t decide between Essex, Kent or Surrey direction.

Any ideas?

Are you not too far south for the potential today?

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

That’s why I was thinking of headed towards East Anglia

You did say Essex, Kent or Surrey!

Peterborough sounds about right or in that area

Edit:there are some echo's appearing there now on the latest radar

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

You did say Essex, Kent or Surrey!

Peterborough sounds about right or in that area

Edit:there are some echo's appearing there now on the latest radar

 Ha ha yes I did - sorry -  The operative word was ‘ toward ‘

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

I can definitely tell the humidity has shot-up here in the past 3 hours, cold and crisp this morning under the blanket of cloud and cold wind but since 1pm there's been a bit of sun breaking through and showers forming to the east of the Pennines in response to that.

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