Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

[MrNooo]

Very humid here and very dark cloud cover, no rain. It's really kicking off in France, lucky garlic munchers!!!

[Frosty hollows]

Thunder here now. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

16 minutes ago, convector said:

It's all just sitting around the convergence zone in high wycombe - i don't know how to chase this. Anyone know any viewpoints in the area? 

I personally wouldn’t even try - the storms will pop up and disappear without warning and a lot of the strikes you see on radar can be related to the same bolt (sometimes 3 or 4)

Also a lot of it will be IC lightning

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

The big group of thunderstorms in France on a1 and a16 moving north east I think 

[Frosty hollows]

12 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I personally wouldn’t even try - the storms will pop up and disappear without warning and a lot of the strikes you see on radar can be related to the same bolt (sometimes 3 or 4)

Also a lot of it will be IC lightning

It's just heavy rain bursts with the odd  clap of thunder

[Windblade]

Been watching convection move east to west all day long...to my south. Completely dry here all day. In the past hour storms developed to my west (heading west). So typical. Calling it now - another bust. 

[Lauren]

8 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Been watching convection move east to west all day long...to my south. Completely dry here all day. In the past hour storms developed to my west (heading west). So typical. Calling it now - another bust. 

Saaaaame. But then we weren't expecting anything today.

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

From met office weather forecast for south and west Outlook for Saturday to Monday:
Very warm and humid over the Bank Holiday weekend, with plenty of sunshine. However, there will be the risk of scattered thunderstorms throughout the weekend and into Bank Holiday Monday. Dry and brighter tomorrow

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

What’s tomorrow got in store?

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

http://www.arras.fr/fr/webcam

 

wooooooww!

[Lauren]

Well the cat is acting like unstable weather is coming. Granted the Catron 3000 is not 100% reliable.

[sparky1972]

15 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

What’s tomorrow got in store?

well you can take your pick i guess, from an imby view, bbc forecast says rain all day, thunder and lightening from 9am till 5pm, then i watch the bbc forecast and it says dry here all day

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Looks like a new cell has popped in the channel east of margate and heading west towards the thames estuary 

[Windblade]

8 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Well the cat is acting like unstable weather is coming. Granted the Catron 3000 is not 100% reliable.

Mines out in the garden enjoying the sunshine! Storms don't bother him - he was out in the thunder on monday evening and it didn't phase him one bit!

Edited May 24, 2018 by Windblade

[Windblade]

26 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Saaaaame. But then we weren't expecting anything today.

Concective weather had us in the risk zone, although it is pretty broad for todays forecast.

[Allseasons-Si]

9 minutes ago, The East has Ceased said:

Looks like a new cell has popped in the channel east of margate and heading west towards the thames estuary 

Yes,a POTENT little cell that is,and popped up out of knowhere.

Edited May 24, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

i know it’s Europe but it’s practically on our doorstep

[A.J]

I've just been looking at a 2 hour satellite animation for France & the UK.....It's no wonder we're not importing much per se.....steering flow over France is WSW with a swift storm motion whereas steering flow over Benelux to the UK is easterly....Storms developing over north/north east France are being ripped apart as soon as they drift into the easterly 'conveyor belt'....Some residual energy is carried over into the UK but not enough to sustain decaying convection, hence why some southern and eastern districts are experiencing bands of heavy rain with just the odd embedded convective element

Edited May 24, 2018 by ajpoolshark

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

I've just been looking at a 2 hour satellite animation for France & the UK.....It's no wonder we're not importing much per se.....steering flow over France is WSW with a swift storm motion whereas steering flow over Benelux to the UK is easterly....Storms developing over north/north east France are being ripped apart as soon as they drift into the easterly 'conveyor belt'....Some residual energy is carried over into the UK but not enough to sustain decaying convection, hence why some southern and eastern districts are experiencing bands of heavy rain with just the odd embedded convective element

But some conveyor belts can be good:

[Lauren]

It's really getting crazy in France now!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

With a bit of luck, that French storm should start to swing round to more of a N and then NW direction of travel, although may lose some intensity. Mid level cape doesn’t look too bad for later on to perhaps get some elevated activity kicking off. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just the one glass of wine for me this evening, and one eye on the radar just in case I need to head down the road and take a look at the eastern skies

[Thunderstruck]

What way is that cell off the coast off Margate moving? It’s not that easy to tell on radar

[Lauren]

4 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

What way is that cell off the coast off Margate moving? It’s not that easy to tell on radar

Looks to be changing between stalling and moving West.

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, Lauren said:

Looks to be changing between stalling and moving West.

Thanks, that was my guess as well