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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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SarahWxm Aficionado

SarahWxm

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, NE Wales
  • Location: Wrexham, NE Wales
Posted (edited)

Well everyone please don’t blame me if this weekend/bank holiday doesn’t come to anything cos I have just booked 3 nights in a hotel in London Heathrow from Friday night till Monday. Travelling all the way from sunny Wrexham to try my luck on seeing a decent storm!! Am sick of the lack of anything here but knowing my luck it’ll change to dry weather right through lol  

Edited by SarahWxm
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Another Kent clipper Enthusiast

Another Kent clipper

Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Hot
  • Location: London
Posted
10 minutes ago, SarahWxm said:

Well everyone please don’t blame me if this weekend/bank holiday doesn’t come to anything cos I have just booked 3 nights in a hotel in London Heathrow from Friday night till Monday. Travelling all the way from sunny Wrexham to try my luck on seeing a decent storm!! Am sick of the lack of anything here but knowing my luck it’ll change to dry weather right through lol  

Pssst... everyone to Wrexham to watch the mcs that will inevitably sprout up behind your back.  In all seriousness, fair play!

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Numerous cells have begun to kick off from Cambridge down to around London and Kent! Could shape up to be a decent night for some!! 

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

A lot of strikes in the last half hour. Wow can see the flashes from Guildford too

The lightning radars aren't very good at detecting these are they? I presume a lot of cloud to cloud lightning?

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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convector Contributor

convector

Posted
  • Location: oxford, uk
  • Location: oxford, uk
Posted
1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The lightning radars aren't very good at detecting these are they? I presume a lot of cloud to cloud lightning?

it's probably because these storms are elevated

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Zephyr Community Regular

Zephyr

Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
Posted

Couple of strikes west of London now towards the Slough area

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)

Doesn't look like much lightning activity last night as the rain spread across southern areas, not too hopeful for today either, though may get some isolated areas of storms where we see convergence and some surface heating north of the M4 across S Midlands down to SE England perhaps. Storm forecast:

Storm & Convective Forecast

stormmap_240518.thumb.png.52091fd95019a48cf6f3bee151fb1ade.png

Issued 2018-05-24 05:59:58
Valid: 24/05/2018 0600 - 25/05/2018

UK & IRELAND THUNDERSTORM FORECAST - 24 HR OUTLOOK

Synopsis

An upper level high will be centred over Scandinavia during Thursday, further southwest, an upper low will drift NW out of N France. At the surface: areas of high pressure will be centred to the W of Ireland and also over Scandinavia, slack areas of low pressure circulation over western and central mainland Europe, an unstable easterly flow will cover southern UK, supporting sporadic/isolated storms.

... ENGLAND and WALES ...

A great deal of uncertainty exists over possible areas of storm development today - due to areas of mostly dynamic rainfall with some embdeded convective elements pushing west ... as a shortwave moving west cresting upper low over NW France creates ascent of a warm/moist plume spreading out of the near continent. Some isolated lightning may occur with embeded convective activity in heavier pulses of rain spreading west/northwest across southern England and Wales through the morning and into the afternoon, as overnight - some of the convective rainfall may produce further incidences of localised flooding in places. 

There is likely to be clearance of cloud and rain from the E/SE across parts of SE England, E Anglia, Midlands and southern N England ... here increasingly moist surface airmass with dew points rising into the mid-teens celsius combined with surface heating in any sunshine will yield several 100 j/kg CAPE in the afternoon ... however, airmass could remain mostly capped, but where surface convergence can overcome the cap ... which looks mostly likely from Welsh Borders across W/S Midlands and towards SE England - there is scope for some isolated thunderstorms to develop ... which could produce hail, gusty winds and intense rainfall leading to localised flooding ... but potential looks too low to warrant more than an isolated thunderstorm area.

Overnight, frontegensis will occur on the northern edge of the warm/moist plume advecting out of the near continent, with a wave along this frontal boundary over the North Sea evolving a pulse of heavy and perhaps thundery rain with a risk of isolated lighting and localised flooding spreading NW across E Anglia and parts of N England overnight.

... IRELAND ... 

Heavy showers will likely develop this afternoon, some with hail and thunder, localised flooding is possible.

 

Edited by Nick F
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LightningLover Accomplished

LightningLover

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
Posted

Well it appears I DID miss something last night... oh well. there's lots of opportunities over the next few days!

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Based on the Blitzortung grab above I probably would have seen/heard thunder or lightning but I slept through...oh well 

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SarahWxm Aficionado

SarahWxm

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, NE Wales
  • Location: Wrexham, NE Wales
Posted
7 hours ago, Another Kent clipper said:

Pssst... everyone to Wrexham to watch the mcs that will inevitably sprout up behind your back.  In all seriousness, fair play!

Hahaha yeah am expecting that there will be the biggest storm Wrexham has ever had when I’m sitting in a blue sky London banging my head off the nearest wall haha. Seriously though, am I in the best place to be able to see something this coming weekend? Pleeeeease

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Windblade Community Regular

Windblade

Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
Posted

Once again looks like I missed it by a whisker. Got just outside audible/visual range and died. Second time in a month now.

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted (edited)

This is when I begin to get disheartened - this ain’t a good start seeing as the first few opportunities have been kind of busts

Today looks like a write-off too

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted
53 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

This is when I begin to get disheartened - this ain’t a good start seeing as the first few opportunities have been kind of busts

Today looks like a write-off too

The day is young mate. Plus the main events don’t look like they will be arriving until Saturday anyway. It’s still only May aswell! 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

The rain in the channel to the south east is more widespread, slightly further south and more disorganised than was previously modelled, GFS 06Z appears to have a better handle of this. The whole of today looks like being a poor day generally across many parts of southern England with only occasional embedded convection.

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted
27 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

The day is young mate. Plus the main events don’t look like they will be arriving until Saturday anyway. It’s still only May aswell! 

We need everything we can get

It may only be May but this could be our last chance at thunderstorms for the next seven years 

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SenlacJack Rising Star

SenlacJack

Posted
  • Location: St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex. 81 metres asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms.
  • Location: St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex. 81 metres asl
Posted
10 hours ago, Despicable Weather said:

Bliztortung is picking up a few strikes with that messy mass heading NW currently

 

24May2018.JPG

This was right overhead and unbelievably I slept right through it. I can only assume it was elevated in nature and quiet in terms of thunder.

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