Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

3 minutes ago, Windblade said:

I think some people are just tired of the contiuous disappointment our hobby can often bring (I've gone through a bout of this recently, having missed out by a whisker on what have been described by many as some of the best storms for years). I don't think anyone has any disrespect for the forecasts/ers, just tempering their expectations while hoping for more, that's all.

I’ve seen overplays and underplays on various sites, but the setup seems pretty sound this evening so i’m Keeping my hopes up.

Main thing I’ve learned is that preparedness is king - so it can let me down later if it wants but I’d rather that than give up now and regret missing out after the event...

[Lauren]

Out of interest what do people find the most accurate lightning map website? Lightningmaps? Blitzortung? Other?

[Windblade]

13 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Exactly it for me. Have utmost respect for Forecasters, just been burnt too many times is all! 

That's how I'm thinking at the moment too. Absolute respect for the forecast team. However, my recent pessimistic approach to storms has so far rewarded me a storm on monday and a viewing of the huge active Sevenoaks cell yesterday (too far away to hear any thunder or see any lightning but it was a beautiful looking cell - and a mate of mine was right underneath it describing the storm to me!) so it seems to be working.

Edited May 23, 2018 by Windblade

[Windblade]

3 minutes ago, Lauren said:

Out of interest what do people find the most accurate lightning map website? Lightningmaps? Blitzortung? Other?

I like lightningmaps myself. I've found it to be fairly accurate (no lightning radar is perfect) and the zoom function and thunder shockwave animations are really useful and well implemented. However, I do like blitzotungs historic data feature.

[Josh Rubio]

What do you guys think about this? 

Thunderstorm activity has been next to nothing so far here in the East Midlands. I have yet to see my first proper thunderstorm for 2018. 

[Stormhog]

Last 2 hrs strikes: 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 minutes ago, Stormhog said:

Last 2 hrs strikes: 

These will be largely irrelevant I think as new storms should fire after sunset close to the south coast.

It’s good to see that the continental air is juicy enough tho

[Stormhog]

7 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

These will be largely irrelevant I think as new storms should fire after sunset close to the south coast.

It’s good to see that the continental air is juicy enough tho

[tomp456]

This was about 40 minutes ago

Phone has added exposure....was darker than the picture looks. Looks quite unstable to me! 

This is looking west towards Portsmoih/IOW way. 

I'm too far east/west to get anything IMO, but might see a few distant flashes after sunset should anything kick off. 

Edited May 23, 2018 by tomp456

[dave reid]

Campervan all set up for a night out in the new forest near Hythe. Fingers crossed it kicks of early as got to set off for work at 6am, and more importantly I've out got 1 bottle of wine 

[samadamsuk]

Hey all,

Anyone have a decent link to jet level winds this weekend? Looked like some speed in the jet rounding that low to our south, but I couldnt find any decent 300mb wind charts. CAPE and LI looking pretty special, so if we can get upper wind support we could have an interesting BH weekend! Samos

[Harry]

Well well well cop a glance at this emerging sky chaps and chapettes. Flocks of mid level clouds beginning to appear - combination of altocumulus (with hints of turreting) and mackerelage. A very good sign!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

7 minutes ago, dave reid said:

Campervan all set up for a night out in the new forest near Hythe. Fingers crossed it kicks of early as got to set off for work at 6am, and more importantly I've out got 1 bottle of wine 

Can’t you not buy more wine on the way?

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, Harry said:

Well well well cop a glance at this emerging sky chaps and chapettes. Flocks of mid level clouds beginning to appear - combination of altocumulus (with hints of turreting) and mackerelage. A very good sign!

Sounds fishy to me

[A.J]

2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Sounds fishy to me

 lol

[Biggin]

19 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

These will be largely irrelevant I think as new storms should fire after sunset close to the south coast.

It’s good to see that the continental air is juicy enough tho

Yep Nicks FC was poss something in SE pre midnight, post midnight storms initiating in SE moving westwards. Am prob wrong but I think that was the prediction. Nick will deny or confirm LOL

[Southern Storm]

17 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

This was about 40 minutes ago

Phone has added exposure....was darker than the picture looks. Looks quite unstable to me! 

This is looking west towards Portsmoih/IOW way. 

I'm too far east/west to get anything IMO, but might see a few distant flashes after sunset should anything kick off. 

Yes I can confirm, I'm in Christchurch, and around 19:15 it was looking quite ominous, but it looks like we will have to wait until much later if at all!

 

Edited May 23, 2018 by Christchurch storm nut

[Allseasons-Si]

It's wierd seeing storms come up from the SE from the continent when usually we see them come from the south or south west with an upper trough to the west as a trigger and most of the time we miss out and the continent gets all the gubbins or at best a Kent clipper

What's it called this one

EL BELGIO

[matt111]

1 minute ago, Christchurch storm nut said:

Yes I can confirm, I'm in Christchurch, and around 19:15 it was looking quite ominous, but it looks like we will have to wait until much later if at all! 

 

I'm a few miles east of you and it looked quite dark for a while earlier but nothing happened other than a few spots of rain. Still looks dark over the water but not so much inland at the moment. Hopefully something will happen later. 

[A.J]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's wierd seeing storms come up from the SE from the continent when usually we see them come from the south or south west with an upper trough to the west as a trigger and most of the time we miss out and the continent gets all the gubbins or at best a Kent clipper

What's it called this one

EL BELGIO

or looking at the latest strikes, I give you el Dunko

[NO LONGER POSTING]

15 minutes ago, Harry said:

Well well well cop a glance at this emerging sky chaps and chapettes. Flocks of mid level clouds beginning to appear - combination of altocumulus (with hints of turreting) and mackerelage. A very good sign!

Just started seeing this in Surrey too, beautiful 

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

or looking at the latest strikes, I give you el Dunko

Let's hope it doesn't do a dunk in the sea before hitting land

el Brugio isn't doing to bad either

the one in S Belgium has done a right mover and heading NW instead of west,one to watch later but i will be in noddyland then.

Edit:sferics seem to be dying now,lets hope they pick up again later.

Edited May 23, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Tom dewey likes thunder]

Cloud over here warminster and raining but no thunder or lighting

[Mapantz]

I now have a second (private) PTZ IP Camera with sound. So, I'm looking forward to the next few months in the hope of getting some recordings with sound, without the need to hold a camera in my hands.

[Thunderstruck]

A few strikes appearing off the Belgian Coast now. Maybe a sign that it can make it across the water?