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Gray-Wolf

AGW derived events forecast for 2018!

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So , we're a weather site peopled by weather nuts.

As such we should know that long range forecasting should be troublingly difficult but then maybe not so?

So , here goes..........

I predict, in May of 2018, that this years Polar Night Jet will struggle to form up this late autumn and when it does it will be well off centre ( if you want to know how it should look take a peep at the 10mb level over Antarctica a.t.m.?)

I predict unseasonal cold plunges directly beneath the forming up Polar Night jet.

I predict huge spikes in the DMI80N temp plot as warm air Advection floods into the polar night of the Arctic Basin.

I predict extensive/record wildfires across the north of eurasia and N. America/Canada over high summer

I predict that we will see the formation of Atlantic Hurricanes that outstrip their forecast for speed in gaining Major Status and that they will endure far longer as 'Majors' than forecast initially.

I predict that the Southern states of the U.S. will see a '1 in 500 yr' flood event ( the fourth in five years)

I predict that Western Europe will see multiple extreme storm flood events over the summer months.

None of the above should be easy to predict as all used to call for quite extreme conditions leading up to them manifesting.

Over the past 15 years we have seen our climate morph into one that has made all of them a nearly 'nailed on' certainty of things that were once only seen very rarely ( so unpredictable?).

Do hold me to these forecasts and we can talk more over the christmas period!

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That’s not AGW, that’s adjusted climate change to make up for the falsities of AGW....

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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35 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

That’s not AGW, that’s adjusted climate change to make up for the falsities of AGW....

 

BFTP

'Falsities'?

That is a comment well beneath you bftp - well, I thought so anyway.

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It looks like the 10mba  circulation is about to morph into its twisted shape over the coming 2 weeks. I had been quite impressed at the 'normal' shape since the start of October but this now appears to be at an end?

As we start to inch toward winter I am now interested in the way the Arctic will impact/be impacted by the heat now being pumped into the atmosphere above the Arctic. With ENSO also pumping heat into the atmosphere I would expect quite a dynamic 4 months ahead of us?

Who will cop for the early freeze this year? Will it be NE Canada/NE USA again? With eastern eurasia also see another battering this year? How much heat will we swee deposited into the High Arctic this refreeze? Will we see 80N pushed above freezing again over the dark of mid winter?

Sadly we have seen a number of worrying reports this summer. From the 12 years and counting warming from the IPCC to the collapse in wildlife since the 70's to the underestimation of heat being culled by our oceans to the MetO's look back at the past decade of extremes in the UK.

This underscores what I see as the stepping up of AGW as the naturals consolidate in their AGW augmenting phases and the Asian dimming drops out of the atmosphere allowing the Pacific to gain its full solar forcing.

Since 2014 we have been slowly settling into this new period of rapid warming ( higher rates than in the last period of accelerated warming) but this time we have a number of tipping points that will fall as we move beyond 1c of warming the most worrying of these has to be the permafrost and CO2/CH4 outpourings now ongoing.

The Russian discovery of both the giant 'Pingo like' structures on the sea bed of Kara ( mirroring the growth of over 1,000 'pingo like' structures across Yamal in 2015) and now the newly discovered 'active regions' in the east Siberian Sea ( additions to those we saw studied since 2010?) signal that the 'methane burp' is now ongoing and I imagine we would be wise to now expect much worse esp. if Kara/Yamal begin to have a knock on affect with the rest of the submerged permafrost out under E.S.S.?

BFTP will not need his 10 years to clear his head on the issue. The issue will very much come to him!"

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5 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

It looks like the 10mba  circulation is about to morph into its twisted shape over the coming 2 weeks. I had been quite impressed at the 'normal' shape since the start of October but this now appears to be at an end?

As we start to inch toward winter I am now interested in the way the Arctic will impact/be impacted by the heat now being pumped into the atmosphere above the Arctic. With ENSO also pumping heat into the atmosphere I would expect quite a dynamic 4 months ahead of us?

Who will cop for the early freeze this year? Will it be NE Canada/NE USA again? With eastern eurasia also see another battering this year? How much heat will we swee deposited into the High Arctic this refreeze? Will we see 80N pushed above freezing again over the dark of mid winter?

Sadly we have seen a number of worrying reports this summer. From the 12 years and counting warming from the IPCC to the collapse in wildlife since the 70's to the underestimation of heat being culled by our oceans to the MetO's look back at the past decade of extremes in the UK.

This underscores what I see as the stepping up of AGW as the naturals consolidate in their AGW augmenting phases and the Asian dimming drops out of the atmosphere allowing the Pacific to gain its full solar forcing.

Since 2014 we have been slowly settling into this new period of rapid warming ( higher rates than in the last period of accelerated warming) but this time we have a number of tipping points that will fall as we move beyond 1c of warming the most worrying of these has to be the permafrost and CO2/CH4 outpourings now ongoing.

The Russian discovery of both the giant 'Pingo like' structures on the sea bed of Kara ( mirroring the growth of over 1,000 'pingo like' structures across Yamal in 2015) and now the newly discovered 'active regions' in the east Siberian Sea ( additions to those we saw studied since 2010?) signal that the 'methane burp' is now ongoing and I imagine we would be wise to now expect much worse esp. if Kara/Yamal begin to have a knock on affect with the rest of the submerged permafrost out under E.S.S.?

BFTP will not need his 10 years to clear his head on the issue. The issue will very much come to him!"

Tremendous mind bending going on GW.😁

I also think that an interesting period is in front of us.

I think you have managed to cover just about all the possibilities, except one..

But that would be technical and not political, so is disqualified in this thread..

MIA

 

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34 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Tremendous mind bending going on GW.😁

I also think that an interesting period is in front of us.

I think you have managed to cover just about all the possibilities, except one..

But that would be technical and not political, so is disqualified in this thread..

MIA

I just re-read Ian's post MIA and, alas, all I can see is a set of predictions that can all be disproved by future observation...So how, pray, can he be being political?

If someone (who was coincidentally convinced by AGW theory) were to suggest that the moon will still be there tomorrow, you'd claim they were being political!

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As one of my childhood heroes, Malcolm X, said: The future belongs to those who prepare for it today...

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Hi Pete!

The way I see it is if I , a lowly weather nut, can pull up a list of extreme/unusual events across a weather year and see them occur then something predictable must be occurring out there?

If it was merely 'random' naturals, year in year out,then it would not be possible but if new forcings were tweaking our atmospheric circulation and leading to a set of responses then all of us would , by looking at recent years , be able to spot the 'new' events that were now a seasonal occurrence?

I'm sure you are aware that I used to post quite frequently in the Climate threads ( here and elsewhere) but the changes in 2014 , placing us back into accelerated warming, signalled an end to any thoughts of me 'helping the Lurkers' to better understand what we have facilitated via our polluting.

Basically the battle was lost and the climate change deniers won.

Now we get to see the kind of world/climate they battled to impose on us for the past two decades?

 

Anyhoos, for me the now 'seasonal' mangling of the trop/strat above the seasonally open waters of the Arctic, is the start of my 'Weather Year'.

Forecasts predict the first peturbations of this area of the atmosphere in the coming weeks. It appears that the trop below will surge into the forming Polar Night Jet ( at the 10mba level).

The mangling of the circulation will lead to impacts for us all in our hemisphere be it from 'Arctic Plunges' or 'Warm Air Advection'.

Let the Games begin!

 

 

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On 09/05/2018 at 17:31, Gray-Wolf said:

So , we're a weather site peopled by weather nuts.

As such we should know that long range forecasting should be troublingly difficult but then maybe not so?

So , here goes..........

I predict, in May of 2018, that this years Polar Night Jet will struggle to form up this late autumn and when it does it will be well off centre ( if you want to know how it should look take a peep at the 10mb level over Antarctica a.t.m.?)

I predict unseasonal cold plunges directly beneath the forming up Polar Night jet.

I predict huge spikes in the DMI80N temp plot as warm air Advection floods into the polar night of the Arctic Basin.

I predict extensive/record wildfires across the north of eurasia and N. America/Canada over high summer

I predict that we will see the formation of Atlantic Hurricanes that outstrip their forecast for speed in gaining Major Status and that they will endure far longer as 'Majors' than forecast initially.

I predict that the Southern states of the U.S. will see a '1 in 500 yr' flood event ( the fourth in five years)

I predict that Western Europe will see multiple extreme storm flood events over the summer months.

None of the above should be easy to predict as all used to call for quite extreme conditions leading up to them manifesting.

Over the past 15 years we have seen our climate morph into one that has made all of them a nearly 'nailed on' certainty of things that were once only seen very rarely ( so unpredictable?).

Do hold me to these forecasts and we can talk more over the christmas period!

So how do folks think I did?

Was I too 'soft' and just went for areas where we are becoming used to seeing impact ( compared with the way such events used to present?) or did I describe well the 'new' ways we are now seeing our atmosphere act and the impacts those changes drive on the areas they end up impacting?

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3 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

So how do folks think I did?

Was I too 'soft' and just went for areas where we are becoming used to seeing impact ( compared with the way such events used to present?) or did I describe well the 'new' ways we are now seeing our atmosphere act and the impacts those changes drive on the areas they end up impacting?

I generally hope all of your predictions are wrong!

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