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Summer Sun

Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

Paul

Please ensure you stick to the forum guidelines when using this thread, particularly when it comes to discussing weather preferences:

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Weather Guilt-Tripping - Please don't suggest people are selfish for enjoying or even looking forward to a certain weather type. Everyone has different weather preferences, but since none of us can control the weather, no-one should be made to feel guilty or foolish for liking it.

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I don’t miss anything about the dull wet summers between 2007-12 or the poor run between 2015-17(wasn’t as bad compared to 07-12 era).

Most of the average to poor summers usually are dominated by too many cloudy days, which can last for several weeks at a time. 

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I think we are entering a period of colder winters, and it wouldn’t surprise me if 18/19 is cold or colder than the 17/18 one. Possibly followed by another dry hot summer. 

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5 hours ago, Yarmy said:

I don't think I can ever recall seeing the grass and vegetation quite so scorched and tinder dry. Personally, I'm enjoying it and want to see how long it can go on. Even the nights have not been that oppressive. It does make me wonder what will happen when the rain finally does come because the ground is rock hard and impermeable.

I did during summer '76.  We were so short of water they were going to have tankers full of treated sewage to use for wild firefighting and irrigation.  As soon as a Minister for Drought was appointed, the weather broke.  Here the heat broke just after the late August bank holiday with some spectacular thunderstorms.  Before someone starts quoting stats this is from memory and  of course subjective.

Edited by Wildswimmer Pete
Missed out some words

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15 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I think we are entering a period of colder winters, and it wouldn’t surprise me if 18/19 is cold or colder than the 17/18 one. Possibly followed by another dry hot summer. 

There is a school of thought that we are entering a Grand Minimum, which I agree with. However it might take a few more years before the cooling trend can be confirmed.

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17 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I think we are entering a period of colder winters, and it wouldn’t surprise me if 18/19 is cold or colder than the 17/18 one. Possibly followed by another dry hot summer. 

Maybe yes? Maybe no?

But I do hope that, be it mild or be it cold, winter 2018-19 gives us enough rainfall to eliminate the deficit...15" of rain, falling as snow, does have certain attractions of course - but even those are limited!❄️

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7 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

There is a school of thought that we are entering a Grand Minimum, which I agree with. However it might take a few more years before the cooling trend can be confirmed.

And that's always assuming that any cooling that's caused by Solar Min is powerful enough to overcome the warming being caused by AGW? Even a 'stand-off' would be beneficial, IMO?

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53 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I think we are entering a period of colder winters, and it wouldn’t surprise me if 18/19 is cold or colder than the 17/18 one. Possibly followed by another dry hot summer. 

Let's hope so. I'm pretty sure many of us here would love a more continental style climate - cold, snowy winters and hot, dry summers with a few thunderstorms thrown in - at least for a few successive years. 

We have a temperate maritime climate at the end of the day, so these are generally temporary blips.

Edited by danm

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9 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Perhaps we should have seen a summer like this coming. We have been experiencing extreme periods for a good few years now, it did seem to quieten somewhat 2015-17 although even then November-December 2015, September 2016, March 2017 as examples occurred.

like your pic on twitter, looks like tree is on fire

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Updated level 2 heatwave alert for all regions in England except the NE & NW

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 08:48 on Thu 19 Jul 2018

There is a 70 % probability of heatwave conditions between 0000 on Friday and 1800 on Tuesday in parts of England.

General Comments:- On Friday, very warm and humid continental air is expected to move into southeast and eastern England. At the same time, a band of cloud and rain, with much milder conditions, will move across northern England. Between these two areas lies a combination of warm sunny spells but also cooler showery intervals, confining the warmest and most humid conditions to southeast England and East Anglia. Furthermore, thunderstorms are also forecast to develop in this area during Friday, leading to localised large temperature variations. Drier, sunnier weather is then expected to develop more widely across much of the the UK (except northern England) over the weekend, becoming hot and humid across the southeast and East Anglia on Sunday, with thresholds increasingly likely to be approached, and perhaps breached, on Monday and Tuesday. It will also feel especially warm overnight due to the humid conditions. The southwest and the midlands will also see temperatures rise over the weekend and into next week, but with a lower risk of thresholds being reached.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

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Tuesday looks cooler again blip,may even get some patchy rain as Friday/Friday night best chance for a week for showery rain,maybe enough to soak the dust this time,not just dampen it.

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Fortunately, tomorrow is looking better here - not much rain and still warm, with sunny spells into the afternoon (and any rain isn't forecast to arrive until the evening, and even then it's light and a 50% chance).

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Reached an important threshold now.  This part of the equation (sunshine hours/67 - rain/8) will be a + value regardless if the rest of summer records an official rain day for everyday and each day returns zero sunshine hrs. 

Summers in order with the best at the top and the worst at the bottom 

1976 301
1995 298
2018 281 (up to 19th July)
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267
1989 262
2013 260 
1947 255
1933 251
1901 249
1921 249
2003 247
1925 246
2006 246
1996 245
1935 243 
2014 242
1994 240
1934 238
1940 238
1941 236
1970 235
1969 234
1973 234
1999 234
1997 232
1990 229
1917 228
1926 227
2005 224
1905 223
1932 223
1945 223
1967 223
1977 223
1914 222
1992 222
1908 220
1960 217
1950 216
1957 216
1968 215
1906 214
1942 214
1937 213
1939 213
1904 212
1929 211
2001 211
1903 209
1943 209
1991 207
1913 205
1971 205
1919 203
1961 203
1982 203
1951 201
1918 200
1944 200
2002 200
1930 199
1974 199
1979 199
1952 198
2000 198
1928 197
1962 197
1964 197
2004 197
1915 196
1981 196
1902 195
1963 194
1993 194
2009 194
1953 193
1966 192
1998 192
2015 192
2017 192

192 <-----------------------------------------if the rest of the summer records a mean max of 15C, zero sunshine, rain everyday

1988 191
2010 191
1910 190
1936 190
2016 189
1965 189
1986 189
1916 188
1972 185
1958 184
1985 180
2011 179
1922 178
1938 177
1948 176
1927 175
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1909 171
1946 170
1987 169
2008 168
2012 164
1924 158
1912 156
1956 155
1907 147
1954 143

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On 17/07/2018 at 11:46, Nick L said:

To be expected considering we're not a continental climate, we're not "supposed" to get extremes.

Yes but there's nothing to say we couldn't get a setup like that- every chance that we could get a direct hit from one of those plumes. I remember Edmonton in Canada recording 30C near the end of September 2011 (probably around the 23rd or so) and I remarked that given our latitude here is the same as there, there was no reason why we couldn't manage such a temperature.

I was ridiculed at the time due to Edmonton being a 'continental' climate and therefore there was no chance of the same happening in the UK. And what happened a week later? We got very close to 30C in the UK on October 1st.

If we get a plume and the right flow off the continent, being an island temporarily goes out of the window.

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Some suggesting that this summer will somehow not be complete without a major plume event- don't forget that some parts of the UK have recorded their highest temperatures for a long time. We did have a summer only 5 years ago that was consistently very warm/hot without a major plume- 2013.

I'd take that summer over 2015 or 1990 any day, which had notably hot spells but were not great overall.

Edited by Scorcher

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

John Hammonds updated blog

  • Another burst of heat 
  • Extreme temperatures unlikely
  • Wetter August

https://weathertrending.com/2018/07/20/john-hammonds-month-ahead-heatwave-hype-end-sight/

Seems most logical, but also the easiest thing to forecast too. It’s been hot for so long, so forecast the opposite, take the credit if it comes in, and just say something like it’s a remarkable summer etc if the heat holds on.

Not to slate John Hammond at all as I think he’s a fantastic meteorologist....but I’d just be wary of forecasting any long lasting demise this year. Mid July onwards was almost where the wheels came off, before the heat held on again. We will have to wait and see !

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3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Seems most logical, but also the easiest thing to forecast too. It’s been hot for so long, so forecast the opposite, take the credit if it comes in, and just say something like it’s a remarkable summer etc if the heat holds on.

Not to slate John Hammond at all as I think he’s a fantastic meteorologist....but I’d just be wary of forecasting any long lasting demise this year. Mid July onwards was almost where the wheels came off, before the heat held on again. We will have to wait and see !

Cynic in me says how "wet" is wetter? Given how dry overall this summer has been, "wetter" is a comparative term and a "wetter" August actually may not be that wet but is in comparison what has currently happened.

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On 18/07/2018 at 22:24, damianslaw said:

Did anyone see this summer coming? Its reminding me a bit like winter 09/10 - a prolonged cold winter that never brought any real mild weather at all, surprised many.. but the ominous very wet mild November was perhaps a sign something unusual was about to happen.

This year we had the odd end Feb/early march period, and the extreme easterlies - again anomalous and a sign perhaps things not normal this year. Indeed since then the atlantic has been in almighty slumber, 5 months now.. 

Rationale / reasoning for this summer from 'experts' would be welcomed, effect of SSW, la nina background state, now moving into El Nino, the cold SST's to our NW,,, what is causing it? 

Big question - when will it break, any signs emerging of a change... it will come.

 

Research has for some time shown the likelihood of anticyclonic conditions downstream from North Atlantic cold pool (see effects of possible AMOC change) and also the importance of the North Atlantic tripole and the summer NAO eg. https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/projects/emulate/DAVID_FEREDAY_D7_REPORTV3.pdf

This report also suggests the possible teleconnection with the African monsoon season and Sahel drought. Direct effects of ENSO are generally statistically insignificant and vary over different time periods and the indirect effect via the tropical Atlantic may be more important. Moreover general tropical effects are vastly reduced in the summer period anyway with northern hemisphere zonal available potential energy (derived from temperature contrasts between the north and tropics) ~20% of the wintertime levels and this year running largely below average for some time -

ZAPE.thumb.png.1fe9c1be5bc3f10ccc03479b92898e6f.png

(courtesy Jason Cordeira http://jasoncordeira.weebly.com/atmospheric-energy.html)

The amount of kinetic energy produced is a function of this potential energy.

Other research into European heatwaves points to the variability in SSTs over the Atlantic regions and the Mediterranean and possibly sea ice reduction to the north of Europe. There is the tendency that these various factors may also be self-reinforcing through positive feedback.

SSW unlikely to have any effect - no relationship between these and our summer weather and of course the current anomalously low Arctic heights, mentioned above, was the the opposite in the aftermath of the SSW. Important to notice that while the effect for the UK has been a general continuation of settled conditions the northern European pressure patterns have seen some large changes during the extended summer period. May saw a large high pressure anomaly over Scandinavia and north west Russia replaced by low pressure in June. This coincided with a period with the high centred more towards tne NW of the UK leading to the record breaking conditions for Scotland, Wales and Ireland and the unusually fine conditions for the north and west in general - eg Hawarden saw a fantastic 270 hours of sunshine in 19 days from 21st June to 9th July.

1191310795_SLPMay2018.thumb.gif.b2415a38c7b34f6da78c790fbfcf3265.gif 213153093_SLPJune2018.thumb.gif.1274cabcd7c279f807bb9eeaa3db5f8f.gif

The first half of July has seen a return of higher pressure to the north east, but particularly in the last few days Atlantic weather systems have and are affecting north western regions - whilst there is still much settled and warm weather, this suggests possible return to a more 'normal' summer fine weather pattern (NW-SE split).

 

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DiUw0viWkAYSriI.jpg

A nice N-S contrast.

Edited by summer blizzard

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12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Glad I will be in Cornwall then.  It won't be 35C down there!

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Have booked two weeks off work from Sunday so although i would prefer a collapse in our summer weather, it's still preferable to being in what is essentially a large metal box at work. I can at least drink copious amounts of coffee.

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