Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc


Message added by Paul

Please ensure you stick to the forum guidelines when using this thread, particularly when it comes to discussing weather preferences:

Quote

Weather Guilt-Tripping - Please don't suggest people are selfish for enjoying or even looking forward to a certain weather type. Everyone has different weather preferences, but since none of us can control the weather, no-one should be made to feel guilty or foolish for liking it.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/guidelines/

Recommended Posts

1976 301
1995 298
1983 278

2018 278 (up to 14th July)


1955 277
1911 274
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268

If the rest of summer had a mean max average of 15C, no sunshine and rain everyday then the index will end on 179

Ahead of summers 2007, 2008 and 2012 as recent examples.

Some of the sunshine totals figure since the start of May up to now have been sensational.

Aberdaron: 698hrs

Valley: 688.5hrs

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Oh and for what it's worth, this will be added to the guidelines shortly..  

Feels so Autumnal today, loving the change from June and July.

The sad thing is many people don't appreciate that people really struggle in this, from young babies to elderly to asthmatic. Meanwhile they're sitting there going yay it could be 40oC. I'm same as yo

Posted Images

13 hours ago, weatherguru14 said:

The GFS chart as been showing another possibility of an heatwave in the latter half of the month.. How likely is this going to happen? :) just wondered if all models are picking this up. or is to early to say?.

Looking at the models from this morning I'd say we are not done with the heat yet and with the hottest part of the year on paper still to come who knows what the 2nd half may bring

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/07/2018 at 16:01, Ed Stone said:

But do you remember July 1980: day after day of cold showery NNW winds and loads of showers and thunderstorms? Not the usual warm variety, but those that occur when cold air advects across 'warm' land surfaces...though, as London's midday temps were sometimes as 'scorching' as 12C, those storms were nowt to be enjoyed.

This year though, IMO, asks a different question: Where's the cold air going to come from? It's almost as hard to find as in most of our recent winters!?

Interestingly we seem to have a "warm continents cold Arctic" pattern at the moment, the inverse of what we've had in a lot of recent summers when the Arctic dipole anomaly set up and the jet stream ran further south than usual.  There's quite a lot of cold air bottled up near the North Pole with 850hPa temperatures widely below -5C, which is quite unusual for mid-July, but as you suggest, not a lot of cold air around in the mid-latitudes.  if we were to get a deep northerly it would probably be pretty potent for the time of year, but it would result in the mixing out of the cold air near the pole which wouldn't be good for the Arctic sea ice.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Now entering what I call 'high summer' which is mid July to mid August, when we see the warmest period of the year on average, however, also tends to be a wetter period than early-mid summer.

I suspect we may see a couple of hot plumes in the next 4 weeks, possibly one to end July and then another maybe before we hit mid August. Can't see anything but appreciably warm weather for the weeks ahead, but increased chance of rain for all - probably in the form of showers or thundery downpours for most, often localised, the NW though will be influenced by frontal activity on occasion.

Will we see a marked change by end of August - probability perhaps says yes, but this has been an unusual year since the SSW. However, at some point expect the cold air over Arctic to interact with an increasingly rampant jetstream - the elastic will then snap so to speak.

Would like others thoughts on likely patterns for later summer and into autumn - what impact will El Nino have?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The seas around the UK are seriously warm at the moment due to the persistent heat. 20-21C SSTs touching Cornwall now:

GFSOPNS00_0_35.png

Quite a lot of energy there if we get any southerly tracking lows in Autumn.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, reef said:

The seas around the UK are seriously warm at the moment due to the persistent heat. 20-21C SSTs touching Cornwall now:

GFSOPNS00_0_35.png

Quite a lot of energy there if we get any southerly tracking lows in Autumn.

If you want to see a thermal gradient then check out the Atlantic wide picture. Once the vortex pushes the jet stream sufficiently far south, we're going to get some serious lows.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

If you want to see a thermal gradient then check out the Atlantic wide picture. Once the vortex pushes the jet stream sufficiently far south, we're going to get some serious lows.

Agree there is a marked temp gradient setting up over the atlantic this summer, and I suspect this will cause the jetstream to seriously ramp up, a very wet autumn could be on the cards with some early cold build up wanting to spill out of the arctic. A mark of this, is the forecast for a ramping in the jet this week, when it was expected to weakenand become sluggish - it is preety active just to our north at the moment.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, reef said:

The seas around the UK are seriously warm at the moment due to the persistent heat. 20-21C SSTs touching Cornwall now:

GFSOPNS00_0_35.png

Quite a lot of energy there if we get any southerly tracking lows in Autumn.

Yep, 3 - 4 degrees above average. It wouldn't surprise me to see them go higher in August and through in to September.
Sea temp at Bournemouth is 1 degree above the July average, at the moment.
 

Beach fishing throughout June and up to now has been extremely successful on every trip i've made. Big bass caught, plenty of sharks and flatties too.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Something this summer hasn't managed, is a 'proper' heatwave for England with 15C+ 850's temps, and widespread temps in the 30's. The kind that's over Scandinavia atm, and remains for the most of the entire GFS run this morning (they only drop briefly to what we've been getting in our hot weather). At times those 850's extend out into the Arctic sea up to around 75+ degrees north.
Would be kind of odd if in such a good summer, we can't manage that.

Just checked one place, Rovaniemi in Lapland is forecast 33C today 34C tomorrow on the ECM data. Overnight low 22C.

Scandinavia/Finland look more likely to be the area breaking monthly/daily records (again) to me based on the models.

Edited by Evening thunder
Link to post
Share on other sites

Agree with the above. Been an exceptional summer so far, however this is more due to the longevity of the hot and dry conditions rather than any sort of record breaking temperatures (except for parts of the W/NW). 

I don’t think the temperature has yet exceeded 33c this summer. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

If you want to see a thermal gradient then check out the Atlantic wide picture. Once the vortex pushes the jet stream sufficiently far south, we're going to get some serious lows.

I'd welcome that, it would continue a great weather year! A great wintry spell, some epic storms (which I wasn't here for...), a blazing summer and hopefully a stormy Autumn. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Evening thunder said:

Something this summer hasn't managed, is a 'proper' heatwave for England with 15C+ 850's temps, and widespread temps in the 30's. The kind that's over Scandinavia atm, and remains for the most of the entire GFS run this morning (they only drop briefly to what we've been getting in our hot weather). At times those 850's extend out into the Arctic sea up to around 75+ degrees north.
Would be kind of odd if in such a good summer, we can't manage that.

Just checked one place, Rovaniemi in Lapland is forecast 33C today 34C tomorrow on the ECM data. Overnight low 22C.

Scandinavia/Finland look more likely to be the area breaking monthly/daily records (again) to me based on the models.

Yes, you look at how cool Rovaniemi is in summer on average and yet they are forecast get 4/5 consecutive days above 30C, something we haven't achieved here for 23 years.

As I said, it seems almost everywhere else in Europe is better for extremes than the UK, regardless of season.

Edited by cheese
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yes, you look at how cool Rovaniemi is in summer on average and yet they are forecast get 4/5 consecutive days above 30C, something we haven't achieved here for 23 years.

As I said, it seems almost everywhere else in Europe is better for extremes than the UK, regardless of season.

To be expected considering we're not a continental climate, we're not "supposed" to get extremes.

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

To be expected considering we're not a continental climate, we're not "supposed" to get extremes.

I am fully aware of that, but northern Scandinavia is still much cooler in the summer than the UK, which is why it's irritating when they get weather like that and we don't. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yes, you look at how cool Rovaniemi is in summer on average and yet they are forecast get 4/5 consecutive days above 30C, something we haven't achieved here for 23 years.

As I said, it seems almost everywhere else in Europe is better for extremes than the UK, regardless of season.

How many days did we manage in 06?

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

How many days did we manage in 06?

Church Fenton had 2 consecutive days above 30C. Leeds itself might have been higher but we'll never know since Leeds Weather Centre closed in 2003 (really wish the Met Office would stop closing stations - a city the size of Leeds really ought to have at least one).

Edited by cheese
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...