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Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc


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Please ensure you stick to the forum guidelines when using this thread, particularly when it comes to discussing weather preferences:

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Weather Guilt-Tripping - Please don't suggest people are selfish for enjoying or even looking forward to a certain weather type. Everyone has different weather preferences, but since none of us can control the weather, no-one should be made to feel guilty or foolish for liking it.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
4 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

The fact is we don't know where a thunderstorm will occur, could happen in a large field but not effect anyone. And talking about selfishness - if you are that concerned about floods you might want to get on to councils about the lack of drain cleaning in this day and age which is a major cause of urban flooding. 

Could happen anywhere, but odds are somewhere will be affected, they usually are. 

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
9 minutes ago, cheese said:

Could happen anywhere, but odds are somewhere will be affected, they usually are. 

However on the other side of the coin as we see on the news Autumn and Winter floods disproportionatly effect more people through heavy persistent rain or snow melt in comparison to brief Summer thunderstorms. 

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and blisteringly hot
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL

I'm concerned over the possible outcome of ex-TS Chris stirring up the atmosphere.  The past few years' summers have started well but as soon as we had an ex-hurricane or ex-TS arrive on the scene in July or August the result was the ushering in of an early autumn.  Bear in mind my location - the south-east fared well but not here in the NW.

Edited by Wildswimmer Pete
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Anyway, there was rain in Leeds today apparently - over on TWO users in the Pudsey and Cookridge areas of the city reported light-mod rain for a brief period this evening, enough to dampen the ground. Nothing here at all though, so must have been quite localised.

Shows how quickly things like that can just pop though, nothing was forecast for anywhere in the region. 

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
1 hour ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

I'm concerned over the possible outcome of ex-TS Chris stirring up the atmosphere.  The past few years' summers have started well but as soon as we had an ex-hurricane or ex-TS arrive on the scene in July or August the result was the ushering in of an early autumn.  Bear in mind my location - the south-east fared well but not here in the NW.

Didn't 2004 and 2005 have a fair few? August was okay in both, very wet in 2004 but warm at least. Better than July 2012 or similar. If the rest of July and August was like that then I could call 2018 a very good summer.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
23 minutes ago, cheese said:

Anyway, there was rain in Leeds today apparently - over on TWO users in the Pudsey and Cookridge areas of the city reported light-mod rain for a brief period this evening, enough to dampen the ground. Nothing here at all though, so must have been quite localised.

Shows how quickly things like that can just pop though, nothing was forecast for anywhere in the region. 

It was an attempted shower, i'm just outside the city center (LS12) and got it about 9pm i think (whenever extra time was). Had some rain blow in the wind and then perhaps a minute or two of what could be described as a light shower. 

18 minutes ago, cheese said:

Didn't 2004 and 2005 have a fair few? August was okay in both, very wet in 2004 but warm at least. Better than July 2012 or similar. If the rest of July and August was like that then I could call 2018 a very good summer.

Two of the most hyperactive seasons on record once they got going. 2004 was definitely affected by the hurricane season because Alex as a low here brought 9C maxima and torrential rain in places. 2005 not so much directly (though many did join the Jet), the pattern just kind of faded away in late July. The remains of Ophelia in September actually produced early frost for some places. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
17 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

It was an attempted shower, i'm just outside the city center (LS12) and got it about 9pm i think (whenever extra time was). Had some rain blow in the wind and then perhaps a minute or two of what could be described as a light shower. 

Two of the most hyperactive seasons on record once they got going. 2004 was definitely affected by the hurricane season because Alex as a low here brought 9C maxima and torrential rain in places. 2005 not so much directly (though many did join the Jet), the pattern just kind of faded away in late July. The remains of Ophelia in September actually produced early frost for some places. 

Yeah I know 2004/5 were very active seasons, though I wasn't sure how many ex-hurricanes actually made their way over here. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Interestingly in looking at the tropics i have found a longer term picture (90 days rather than 30) which shows what happens a little better..

u.anom.90.5S-5N.gif

So to start with we see the wave in the later half of April move from the Indian Ocean to the central Pacific. Although trades prevent it getting further, the movement east no doubt led to an increase in GLAAM which will have been a contributor the build of pressure in the first half of May. 

The second thing you notice (and this is to a large degree why warmer weather has been favoured) is that bar a brief period between 20th May-10th June, you can see that the pattern switched with any trades over the Indian Ocean/western Pacific and westerly bursts over the central and eastern Pacific (this is an attempt at a Nino imprint). The period i mentioned did see a reversal of that but saw a strong wave push across the entire Pacific culminating in a strong westerly burst in the east Pacific (responsible for our last few weeks of heat).

The question of course is what happens now and we can look at the 30 day chart to see that better..

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

We can see here that there are two things to note. 

The first is that as with the 90 day chart you can see a new wave has formed in the Indian Ocean but it is much weaker than the last two. 

The second is that the pattern has flipped back with a strong trade event over the central/eastern Pacific which is no doubt a contributor as to why we see a stronger Atlantic pattern (essentially the downstream effect is stronger mid-lattitude westerlies). While this is just a Nina imprint and therefore may be temporary (perhaps that wave will push east) in the near term (likely the rest of the month), there is no strong signal here for a return to proper high pressure. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

A level 2 heatwave alert is in place from Yorkshire down to the SE

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 09:04 on Fri 13 Jul 2018

There is a 80 % probability of heatwave conditions between 0900 on Sunday and 0900 on Tuesday in parts of England.

Temperatures are expected to increase again over the weekend as dry and settled weather conditions return, peaking on Sunday and Monday daytimes, with warm and stuffy nights following these hot days. The main focus of the highest temperatures is expected to be across southeast England. Although temperatures are also expected to rise in northern and western England, these areas are not expected to become as hot, and are more likely to remain below trigger criteria. Please note that the probability of reaching trigger criteria has now increased slightly since yesterday's alert for Yorkshire and the Humber, East Midlands, East of England and Southeast England, though all these areas currently remain on Level 2 alert. Conversely the probability of reaching trigger criteria in Southwest England has reduced slightly, and this area is now no longer on Level 2 alert. Into Tuesday, temperatures are expected to show a decreasing trend away from East Anglia, with all areas likely to be below trigger criteria, though still remaining rather warm.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

A couple of hot days to come in mid July, WOW. ALERT ALERT WARNING WARNING, TAKE COVER, INCOMING...

Thanks for the advice nanny!

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
4 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

A couple of hot days to come in mid July, WOW. ALERT ALERT WARNING WARNING, TAKE COVER, INCOMING...

Thanks for the advice nanny!

It's the Nannys that suffer among others what with breathing problems and skin complaints. They have to think of everyone in mind, Its just the way things are now.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
40 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

It's the Nannys that suffer among others what with breathing problems and skin complaints. They have to think of everyone in mind, Its just the way things are now.

Well yes, nanny knows when it feels hot and nanny knows not to stand in the hot sun if its gonna make them unwell.

They don't have to think for everyone imo, people have coped for thousands of years without silly dramatic warnings.

If a hurricane was on the way, now that would be different...

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

I do think those heat health things are way OTT. 

While the heat has been notable and prolonged, it's been a very poor summer so far in terms of thunderstorms!

Edited by Nick L
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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

The break down  may happen at the end of next week. But that would take it into the 3rd week of July.  but looking at the prediction  for the coming week it looks quite good for most of the UK. This summer as been tremendous :)..Oh and we had showers here this evening  

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
12 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Well yes, nanny knows when it feels hot and nanny knows not to stand in the hot sun if its gonna make them unwell.

They don't have to think for everyone imo, people have coped for thousands of years without silly dramatic warnings.

If a hurricane was on the way, now that would be different...

People have coped for thousands of years without pretty much everything we have today. Not sure that's a relevant point.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
9 hours ago, cheese said:

People have coped for thousands of years without pretty much everything we have today. Not sure that's a relevant point.

Yep, people "coped" without vaccinations and medical science...but didn't live long!

Either way, I do think those warnings are a little exaggerated.

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Posted
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
9 hours ago, cheese said:

People have coped for thousands of years without pretty much everything we have today. Not sure that's a relevant point.

Yes, and it should not be forgotten that there were over 2000 deaths in the UK as a result of the 2003 summer heat.  The reasons for this toll are not clearly understood, but I think it is wise that people, young and old, are provided with the best forewarning and advice available.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
26 minutes ago, ciel said:

Yes, and it should not be forgotten that there were over 2000 deaths in the UK as a result of the 2003 summer heat.  The reasons for this toll are not clearly understood, but I think it is wise that people, young and old, are provided with the best forewarning and advice available.

During a particularly unpleasant pollution-ridden spell (August 2003 in Inverness) I was diagnosed with asthma for the first and only time in my life...

Thankfully, so far this summer, the air-quality hasn't been nearly so dire as it was back then?

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

During a particularly unpleasant pollution-ridden spell (August 2003 in Inverness) I was diagnosed with asthma for the first and only time in my life...

Thankfully, so far this summer, the air-quality hasn't been nearly so dire as it was back then?

The lack of much of a continental flow probably helps. 

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Manchester Summer Indices

1976 301
1995 298
1983 278
1955 277

2018 276 (up to 13th July)

1911 274
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267
1989 262
2013 260 
1947 255
1933 251

If the rest of the summer starting from today recorded zero sunshine, a mean maximum of 15.0C and rain everyday, the index would drop to 173, which would still be above summers 2012 and 2008.

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

During a particularly unpleasant pollution-ridden spell (August 2003 in Inverness) I was diagnosed with asthma for the first and only time in my life...

Thankfully, so far this summer, the air-quality hasn't been nearly so dire as it was back then?

The air quality this year has been unusually clear except days like yesterday and we`ve had a good many east winds too,too many to count this year..

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Agreed. Although the ridge has been of Azores origin it has for most of May-Present tended to be a ridge sufficiently far north that we have either seen a pure UK high or one with a NE flow over the UK.

 

This contrasts to 2003 and 2006 which tended to see the ridge move into Europe or 13 when the Azores High just parked itself over France.

 

Looking at the historic charts its probably more like August 47 or the one in 55/56.

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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

The GFS chart as been showing another possibility of an heatwave in the latter half of the month.. How likely is this going to happen? :) just wondered if all models are picking this up. or is to early to say?.

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