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Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc


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Please ensure you stick to the forum guidelines when using this thread, particularly when it comes to discussing weather preferences:

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Weather Guilt-Tripping - Please don't suggest people are selfish for enjoying or even looking forward to a certain weather type. Everyone has different weather preferences, but since none of us can control the weather, no-one should be made to feel guilty or foolish for liking it.

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Just had a look at this mornings GFS maybe the sub 25c won't last all that long?

Given GFS has a tendency to underestimate temps in these set-up's we could probably add another 2 to 3c on those values

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.a45f236e6b951bd8888918fc056818eb.pngukmaxtemp.png1.thumb.png.e1249428703b7ba96151a02910b34db6.pngukmaxtemp.png2.thumb.png.cff27897ad41b4d24dc3c7960fb7e067.pngukmaxtemp.png3.thumb.png.096430dab3594c5548eb65180c7894a8.png

Thanks pal,just kick a man while he's down why don'y you!. This weather is like having Hemorroids,its a pain in the bum,you can't get comfortable and just wish it would end!.. hoping that as in Winter these charts are overly doing the extremes of temps..One can hope☹️

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Oh and for what it's worth, this will be added to the guidelines shortly..  

Feels so Autumnal today, loving the change from June and July.

The sad thing is many people don't appreciate that people really struggle in this, from young babies to elderly to asthmatic. Meanwhile they're sitting there going yay it could be 40oC. I'm same as yo

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Just had a look at this mornings GFS maybe the sub 25c won't last all that long?

Given GFS has a tendency to underestimate temps in these set-up's we could probably add another 2 to 3c on those values

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.a45f236e6b951bd8888918fc056818eb.pngukmaxtemp.png1.thumb.png.e1249428703b7ba96151a02910b34db6.pngukmaxtemp.png2.thumb.png.cff27897ad41b4d24dc3c7960fb7e067.pngukmaxtemp.png3.thumb.png.096430dab3594c5548eb65180c7894a8.png

I don't think the Met Office take much notice of the GFS.?

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While I am enjoying the current weather there  are now huge fire risks in the countryside.This morning I can see a forest fire  across the Moray Firth to the north near Golspie.

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This feels like the longest period of sunny and warm to hot weather since June/July 2014, funnily enough when the last World Cup took place.

2017 had spells of hot and sunny weather between late May and mid July, but it all went south and became cloudy and cooler after that. Maybe the same thing will happen this year, or are we likely to see the summer continue into August this time? 

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2 hours ago, IanR said:

Whilst I welcome this warm summery spell, a few thunderstorms mixed in would make it the perfect summer for me, otherwise it can get a bit tedious  but thunderstorms here are not going to happen anytime soon....or later for that matter , thunder is just as rare as a flying pig over the last couple of years   Bring back the 80's and 90's

Late May was quite thundery in many areas, and some of the worst for many years. Did you miss those ones?!

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On 04/07/2018 at 17:28, Weather-history said:

Its actually the opposite. You look at all the severe winters (sub 2C CET) and see how many were followed by a hot summer.

And last winter wasn't that cold overall. 

 

It was cold enough. Maybe not record breaking, but the coldest since 2012/13. 

Maybe not cold for people who like drinking in beer gardens when it’s 8-10 degrees. Not for me thanks. 

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We've just topped 600 hours of sunshine since 1st May here today (Currently on 605hrs). The 1981-2010 average for the same timeframe is only 420 hours so it really has been exceptional (144%).

This coupled with just 44.2mm of rain (38% of normal and only 12.6mm in June) and now 21 days without any precipitation at all and we've really seen something special.

Temperatures have been less extreme, but still 1.3C above the 1981-2010 average over the timeframe and if the anomaly were to remain until the end of summer it would still be the warmest on record.

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After Sunday in my area the heat is on the decline,all week won't breach 25c,early in the week so much cooler and refreshing! Up a bit later but nothing like the crap(lovely warm temps for those who like it)) we have just had. Rest of July showing the same,little rain though that is a major concern for many.

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Sunshine levels haven't been very high here since Thursday, lots of cumulus cloud that flattens out and obscures most of the sky. Still very warm though, and evenings/nights have been much warmer. Last night was actually the first night that I could genuinely describe as warm.

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7 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Late May was quite thundery in many areas, and some of the worst for many years. Did you miss those ones?!

yes, no thunder here since may 2017 ?   the longest void I have ever known,  

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Updated heatwave alert

Current watch level: Level 3 - Heatwave Action

Issued at: 09:41 on Thu 5 Jul 2018

There is a 90 % probability of heatwave conditions between 1500 on Thursday and 0900 on Monday in parts of England.

The very warm, locally hot, conditions are set to continue through the period, but especially over the weekend. The highest temperatures are likely to occur on Sunday in parts of southern, central, and western England.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Updated heatwave alert

Current watch level: Level 3 - Heatwave Action

Issued at: 09:41 on Thu 5 Jul 2018

There is a 90 % probability of heatwave conditions between 1500 on Thursday and 0900 on Monday in parts of England.

The very warm, locally hot, conditions are set to continue through the period, but especially over the weekend. The highest temperatures are likely to occur on Sunday in parts of southern, central, and western England.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

Leeds and Manchester are supposed to be the same temperature tomorrow, and had the same forecast temperatures for today, but that warrants a Level 3 warning in NW England but not in Yorkshire. Am I missing something? And Sheffield is forecast to be warmer than both.

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5 minutes ago, cheese said:

Leeds and Manchester are supposed to be the same temperature tomorrow, and had the same forecast temperatures for today, but that warrants a Level 3 warning in NW England but not in Yorkshire. Am I missing something? And Sheffield is forecast to be warmer than both.

Might depend on what the temperature level is in said cities to warrant a heatwave warning?

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Might depend on what the temperature level is in said cities to warrant a heatwave warning?

I think the threshold is higher in NW England in general (which is odd since Yorkshire tends to be slightly warmer in the summer, in terms of average maximums anyway).

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32 minutes ago, cheese said:

I think the threshold is higher in NW England in general (which is odd since Yorkshire tends to be slightly warmer in the summer, in terms of average maximums anyway).

Does it though? The only solid evidence I can find for this is from one station- Linton-on-Ouse. Away from the Vale of York the rest of Yorkshire is not as warm. Places like Halifax for example would certainly be cooler than Manchester on average. Maybe you can find me some official averages from stations to back up your point?

The last few weeks have been a lot warmer and sunnier in Manchester than in Yorkshire- maybe it's a cumulative thing due to previous days being hotter, hence the alert continuing? Either that or the forecast temps could be wrong.

At Rostherne near Manchester Airport (also a rural site so the urban area will have been even warmer), there has been a maximum temp above 25C every day since June 24th and only one under 27C:

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?LANG=en&CEL=C&SI=mph&MAPS=over&CONT=ukuk&LAND=UK&REGION=0003&WMO=03351&UP=0&R=0&LEVEL=150&NOREGION=1

 

 

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1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Does it though? The only solid evidence I can find for this is from one station- Linton-on-Ouse. Away from the Vale of York the rest of Yorkshire is not as warm. Places like Halifax for example would certainly be cooler than Manchester on average. Maybe you can find me some official averages from stations to back up your point?

The last few weeks have been a lot warmer and sunnier in Manchester than in Yorkshire- maybe it's a cumulative thing due to previous days being hotter, hence the alert continuing? Either that or the forecast temps could be wrong.

At Rostherne near Manchester Airport (also a rural site so the urban area will have been even warmer), there has been a maximum temp above 25C every day since June 24th and only one under 27C:

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?LANG=en&CEL=C&SI=mph&MAPS=over&CONT=ukuk&LAND=UK&REGION=0003&WMO=03351&UP=0&R=0&LEVEL=150&NOREGION=1

 

 

I knew you'd be along - we've had this same discussion before and I remember you being upset at the fact that Leeds is (very slightly) warmer in the summer than Manchester.

Average July maximums for select stations:

Hull 21.6C

Sheffield 21.1C

Church Fenton 21.2C

Leconfield 21.0C

Doncaster Sheffield 21.9C

As far as I can tell no weather station in NW England itself manages an average high over 21C. Hawarden near Chester manages exactly 21.0C in July. Manchester Airport's average July high is 20.6C.

Looking at higher elevation sites, Bradford Lister Park (134m) has an average July high of 20.1C. Rochdale (110m) as an average July high of 19.7C. Even Woodford, which is at 88m asl, only has an average July high of 20.2C, just 0.1C higher than Bradford despite a sizable elevation difference and Woodford being further south. Urban heat islands also have minimal impact on daytime temperatures. 

The weather west of the Pennines has definitely been a bit better recently, but that's obviously due to the prevalence of easterlies since March/April. Obviously easterlies are uncommon and westerlies are very common, hence the divide in averages (Pennines offer us more shelter, as they do you during easterlies from low cloud).

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The cool down somewhat this week will be a relief,as its getting too much now heat wise and its boring for weather watchers no thunder shower clouds to see, as long as it doesn`t rain by Wednesday/Thursday as I`ve cut my last hay field,that`ll make it 2 days the way it is at the moment.

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Because of the such continuation of this dry and hot spell, i still believe the hottest part of summer is still to come. Just seeing how long its already lasted. Maybe early august and end of month

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I'm hoping for the Atlantic to come into play a bit (and the HP to move somewhat to the East) as for us to experience the sort of heat that 2003 brought, we'll need some sort of southerly drift, I think...? What's more, more 'thundery' type synoptics would give many of us a greater chance of catching some much-needed rain...

PS: Just about the last thing I want to see is a temperature anywhere near 38C!?️

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I see a couple of people  complaining about the outlook in the model threads .In the coming week  ahead, that's the kind of summer weather we would be praising in past summers. Just shows what a fantastic summer we have had up to this date.

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