Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[Wimbledon88]

57 minutes ago, markyo said:

The much needed rain is due next week by the looks of it for the farmers and wildlife,at last the corner might have been turned for those areas. Long time coming and very welcome i suspect!

Very true,3 months of drought and virtually unbroken sunshine should di most people in reality. This isn't Spain or Italy!! Spectacular cool diwn though,only 10c here this morning,fabulously fresh,lawns and patks ciming back to life. Great to see. Heavy showers and thunderstorms forecast for this area today.

Edited August 10, 2018 by Wimbledon88

[mushymanrob]

9 hours ago, reef said:

This is how the memory plays tricks though. In 1975, 1983 and 1995 the Junes all had a CET of 14.7C or below. In the cases of 1983 and 1995 they were actually pretty average overall temperature-wise. They also came after close to average or cold Mays (9.9C, 10.3C and 11.6C)

Its extremely rare for heat to last much longer than 7-8 weeks through a summer in the UK, which is why 1976 is so highly rated. Even so, despite the more changeable outlook, its very likely August 2018 will still be quite a way above average by the end, which would ensure 2018 finishes in the tops ranks of summers.

the cet though is flawed.... as cool overnight temps can bring it down despite warm daytime temps, or make miserable months seem better with higher overnight minima.

83 was dire through spring, the heat came when i got married in late june.

75 started cold with the famous snow in june on the 2nd. but the rest of the month was hot as the high to our west transfered to our east. june 75 is the hottest june i can remember, spring was the coldest after a wet week in early march gave way to a bitter northerly until early june.

spring 95 wasnt bad, we had 1 hot spell at least..

[Snowyowl9]

Good grief those are amass of showers coming in,gone real dark here very cool at 13c.

[Relativistic]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

the cet though is flawed.... as cool overnight temps can bring it down despite warm daytime temps, or make miserable months seem better with higher overnight minima.

83 was dire through spring, the heat came when i got married in late june.

75 started cold with the famous snow in june on the 2nd. but the rest of the month was hot as the high to our west transfered to our east. june 75 is the hottest june i can remember, spring was the coldest after a wet week in early march gave way to a bitter northerly until early june.

spring 95 wasnt bad, we had 1 hot spell at least..

You can always use the min. and max. CET data sets, to be found here:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

Your point about June 1975 is true; in terms of maxima it did very well (joint-20th warmest out of 141), but minima were relatively low (joint-35th coolest out of 141).

The mean for June 1983 it turns out was actually pulled up by higher minima (joint-42nd highest) which had to make up for, overall, underwhelming maxima (joint-59th coolest).

June 1995 was slightly worse than average in both regards (joint-64th coolest for minima and joint-62nd coolest for maxima).

[Snowyowl9]

Well that was a shock to the system heavy prolonged shower and temps dropped to 10.5c now 13.3c and sunny.

[cheese]

9 hours ago, Dexter said:

People have been truly spoilt this summer with the amount of hot, sunny weather (if heat is your thing). We have now had a small number of typical UK summer days, with sunny periods, cloudier at times with the odd shower, lightish winds and temps around the low twenties celsius for most and there are people talking about how autumnal it feels and the need for coats...lol. God help those people when proper autumnal weather actually arrives!

It's called acclimatisation - of course average weather is going to feel cool compared to what we've become accustomed to over the past 2 months. It's no more spoilt than you lot moaning because a mere 2 months of out of our usual cloudy/rainy year has been interrupted with something that actually resembles a proper summer.

And typical summer weather? It's currently 12 degrees and raining here. There is nothing 'typical' about that. i don't care who you are, 12 degrees at 2:50pm in August is cold. 

Edited August 10, 2018 by cheese

[cheese]

8 hours ago, markyo said:

The much needed rain is due next week by the looks of it for the farmers and wildlife,at last the corner might have been turned for those areas. Long time coming and very welcome i suspect!

Hang on, a few days ago you were saying you didn't want a washout? Rain might be needed but it certainly isn't needed on every single day. Have any of you actually looked at the model output?!

Edited August 10, 2018 by cheese

[Snowyowl9]

20 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

i think 91 was regional ... i was going through some upheaval at the time, divorce and starting self employment. i remember it as dry and rather cloudy.  others though have argued it was sunny and hot..

 

It was a late summer as june was cold I know, it extended into September being warm and very dry also.

[markyo]

18 minutes ago, cheese said:

Hang on, a few days ago you were saying you didn't want a washout? Rain might be needed but it certainly isn't needed on every single day. Have any of you actually looked at the model output?!

I have seen the output,for the most it's showing a mixture of showers but mostly dry weather. It's not showing rain everyday in south Yorkshire by any means. Not checked your area i admit but probably somewhere near the same. Bulk of any rain coming Sunday after that showers mainly. No washout at all as see it but some helpful spells of precipitation  may well develop. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/2647920

Edited August 10, 2018 by markyo

[cheese]

7 minutes ago, markyo said:

I have seen the output,for the most it's showing a mixture of showers but mostly dry weather. It's not showing rain everyday in south Yorkshire by any means. Not checked your area i admit but probably somewhere near the same. Bulk of any rain coming Sunday after that showers mainly. No washout at all as see it but some helpful spells of precipitation  may well develop. 

I would have a look at the GFS precipitation charts: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/3h.htm

Rain is shown on every day next week, not just in the form of showers but also in the form of prolonged frontal rain. In August we would typically expect rain on 2 days per week, not 7 days per week! People must be under the impression that a typical UK summer is much wetter than it actually is.

Temperatures are mostly in the low 20s which isn't bad but it's no use if there's loads of rain falling. 

Edited August 10, 2018 by cheese

[markyo]

18 minutes ago, cheese said:

I would have a look at the GFS precipitation charts: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/3h.htm

Rain is shown on every day next week, not just in the form of showers but also in the form of prolonged frontal rain. In August we would typically expect rain on 2 days per week, not 7 days per week! People must be under the impression that a typical UK summer is much wetter than it actually is.

Temperatures are mostly in the low 20s which isn't bad but it's no use if there's loads of rain falling. 

To be honest not a huge fan of the GFS precip charts,i'v noticed this in winter,the amounts especially in my area are out by a fair mark on many occasions. But i agree low 20c is pretty well useless over the holiday summer period if heavy persistent rain is coupled with it.. 

[Snowyowl9]

Thought that was a lillte developing low today wind turned north, much more active day to just a few shower forecast yesterday for today.

Widespread very heavy showers and strong winds south coast.

 

[severe snowstorm]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

It's called acclimatisation - of course average weather is going to feel cool compared to what we've become accustomed to over the past 2 months. It's no more spoilt than you lot moaning because a mere 2 months of out of our usual cloudy/rainy year has been interrupted with something that actually resembles a proper summer.

And typical summer weather? It's currently 12 degrees and raining here. There is nothing 'typical' about that. i don't care who you are, 12 degrees at 2:50pm in August is cold. 

Sorry, but low twenties Celsius in August with lightish winds and sunshine still feels pleasant/warm, regardless of the temperature it got to previously. The acclimatisation required isn't that severe for those conditions to feel cool. Secondly, I wasn't talking about today, which granted has felt somewhat cooler in periods of rain, but warm in sunshine in between for those who have had those sunny breaks.

[Weather-history]

Manchester Summer Indices

Summers in order with the best at the top 

1976 301
1995 298
2018 291 (up to 9th August)
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267
1989 262
1947 255
1933 251
1901 249
1921 249
2003 247
2013 247
1925 246
2006 246
1996 245
2018 245 <--------if rest of summer had a mean maximum of 15C, zero sunshine and rain everyday. 

 

 

[Man With Beard]

 

[cheese]

It's interesting how the national figure is so high, yet here, with just 1 day above 30C, we are still trailing behind 1990, 1995, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2006, and even unremarkable summers like 1999, 2000, 2002 etc. 

Edited August 10, 2018 by cheese

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, cheese said:

It's interesting how the national figure is so high, yet here, with just 1 day above 30C, we are still trailing behind 1990, 1995, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2006, and even unremarkable summers like 1999, 2000, 2002 etc. 

Its all relative, summers been dry here but nothing to write home about 

[cheese]

5 minutes ago, Dexter said:

The point is that most wouldn't find such conditions 'cool'. It obviously doesn't feel anywhere near as hot as the recent spell, but to describe as cool is stretching it a bit I'm afraid....

And the point I'm making is that if most days have been in the mid to high 20s, then 21C will feel cool by comparison. People arriving to the UK from other countries will find our average summer conditions cool. Some parts of the UK saw a 10 degree temperature drop from Monday to Tuesday. Of course, 21C with light winds and sunshine is perfectly pleasant but that doesn't mean the first such day after a prolonged heatwave won't feel a little cool.

I really have no idea why that is such a controversial statement. It should be fairly obvious.

And in any case, I wasn't even talking about 21C with light winds and sunshine - if that's the kind of weather we actually had right now then I wouldn't be complaining at all. 

Edited August 10, 2018 by cheese

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Anyway folks, Tue and wed looking good for most, before turns fresher from the west on thursday

[Captain Shortwave]

6 minutes ago, Dexter said:

The point is that most wouldn't find such conditions 'cool'. It obviously doesn't feel anywhere near as hot as the recent spell, but to describe as cool is stretching it a bit I'm afraid....

To be fair some parts over the last two days have recorded maxima which would be poor for October, let alone august. A high of 17c in Peterborough today and just 14c yesterday. That is cool for summer, in fact given the difference compared to normal you could consider it to be cold for the time of year.

Thankfully temperatures will be back in the low to mid twenties for the next few days.

Edited August 10, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[severe snowstorm]

2 minutes ago, cheese said:

And the point I'm making is that if most days have been in the mid to high 20s, then 21C will feel cool by comparison. People arriving to the UK from other countries will find our average summer conditions cool. Of course, 21C with light winds and sunshine is perfectly pleasant but that doesn't mean the first such day after a prolonged heatwave won't feel a little cool. 

I really have no idea why that is such a controversial statement. It should be fairly obvious.

And in any case, I wasn't even talking about 21C with light winds and sunshine - if that's the kind of weather we actually had right now then I wouldn't be complaining at all. 

As I said in my post, my original post wasn't talking about the weather today which I admit has been cool at times. I wouldn't deny that.

[cheese]

1 minute ago, Dexter said:

As I said in my post, my original post wasn't talking about the weather today which I admit has been cool at times. I wouldn't deny that.

In any case, my moaning earlier today was about the potential for next week to be rather wet with rain on most days, not the actual temperatures which look decent. If it actually ends up sunny in the low 20s then I'll be perfectly happy, but if it ends up raining a lot then I certainly won't.

Edited August 10, 2018 by cheese

[reef]

I think it's too early to write off August yet. There's been a gradual downgrade of the rainfall and upgrade of the temperatures expected recently. GFS 12z has us here with 21C or above everyday and only 14mm between now and the 19th.

I think by the end it'll be respectable.

[severe snowstorm]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

To be fair some parts over the last two days have recorded maxima which would be poor for October, let alone august. A high of 17c in Peterborough today and just 14c yesterday. That is cool for summer, in fact given the difference compared to normal you could consider it to be cold for the time of year.

Yes, to be fair, I think it was better where I am compared to your location during this week until today, the East/South-East having been cloudier and having had more rain? There are always regional differences, granted.

[markyo]

We are in for the usual mixed bag over the weekend for a UK August,today has been cooler i agree,cold not a chance. Will be warming up again next week,low to mid 20c,nothing wrong with that at all,bit of cloud,bit of rain but mostly dry. And yes i have looked at the models,that is my view.