Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[markyo]

21 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

You're lucky you weren't around in 1976, Mark (or were you?)...Elm trees everywhere were being destroyed by Dutch Elm Disease...How on Earth would you have coped?

......i was around in 76 Ed. I've destroyed every blinking photo of me in those flared trousers i had at school!! To be honest really hope this Summer turns out to be one of the best,storms,rain,sun,bit of heat..basically a mixture. Fingers crossed that happens

Edited June 28, 2018 by markyo

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, markyo said:

......i was around in 76 Ed. I've destroyed every blinking photo of me in those flared trousers i had at school!! To be honest really hope this Summer turns out to be one of the best,storms,rain,sun,bit of heat..basically a mixture. Fingers crossed that happens

If only we'd been attacked by Dutch Flares Disease instead, eh? At least I never had a safari suit!

[Summer Sun]

Outlook

Less hot north UK
Humidity
Weekend thunderstorms
Warm/hot next week

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/44648148

[stainesbloke]

4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

For gawd's sake peeps, can't we just all wish for what we wish for? It's not as if our wishes are going to make the slightest bit of difference, is it?

Fair comment. I do get a bit bored and sometimes annoyed with all the moaning in here as soon as the temperature rises above 21C in summer, considering just how much rubbish weather we have to endure through the year. But that’s what this thread is for, I suppose. Wouldn’t mind a decent rainfall here but once that starts in this country, it’s a slippery slope.

Edited June 28, 2018 by stainesbloke

[Harry233]

Think this summer could potentially match 2006 up in Perth. Since around mid-May the weather has been very warm, often dry and very sunny. Aside from a cooler wetter spell around the 8th-21st June, June has been very warm, often quite dry and sunny. We broke the 30.C barrier today with 31.0.C making it the hottest June day on record. July looks set to be another warm, dry and sunny month, this is also the first summer since 2003 I can remember the grass going yellow.

[cheese]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

Fair comment. I do get a bit bored and sometimes annoyed with all the moaning in here as soon as the temperature rises above 21C in summer, considering just how much rubbish weather we have to endure through the year. But that’s what this thread is for, I suppose. Wouldn’t mind a decent rainfall here but once that starts in this country, it’s a slippery slope.

Lol, exactly what I'd be worried about. A bit of rain isn't the end of the world but once it starts it has a habit of not stopping!

[danm]

Looks like the Lakes and parts of N Wales could be the hot spots today. Temperatures are rocketing up there. I can’t actually remember a time when these regions (including Scotland) were the hottest parts of the country during a heatwave for several days in a row. It really is quite extraordinary! 

 

 

[Nick L]

The real acid test for me will be my run of night shifts over this weekend. Up until now I've been enjoying the warmth.

[Summer Sun]

Updated heatwave alert for North West England

 

Quote

 

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 09:15 on Thu 28 Jun 2018

There is a 80 % probability of heatwave conditions between 0900 on Thursday and 0800 on Monday in parts of England.

The dry, and very warm or hot conditions across most of England, are set to continue into the weekend. However, it should be noted that the east coast will continue to experience cooler temperatures with winds blowing from the east. The highest temperatures are expected to occur in western areas that have most shelter from the easterly breeze. Later on Sunday there is a low risk of thunderstorms spreading up from the south into the far southwest of England, but there remains uncertainty for this detail. Heat health threshold are likely to be reached across North West England during Thursday and Friday, although some slightly reduction in temperatures is then expected on Saturday with heat health criteria unlikely to be met for all regions. Temperatures will then increase again across the southwest and south during Sunday. The extent of this increase remains uncertain at this stage, however it is expected to remain very warm or hot into next week. Further updates to this forecast will be issued, as confidence for this period increases.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

 

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth

[reef]

9 hours ago, Nick L said:

The real acid test for me will be my run of night shifts over this weekend. Up until now I've been enjoying the warmth.

As someone else who does nights, it's been enjoyable here too, mainly as it didn't ever arrive! We haven't gone above 23.7C all month. In fact, it's only hit 20C twelve times this June and the mean max is 19.7C.

It is amazing how different it is when we get one of these 'easterly' summer months. I might not like the heat, but I do like an occasional hot spell, if anything just for the interest of unusual weather.

[Summer Sun]

Into next weekend

Mainly dry and sunny
Very warm
Chance of thunderstorms

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/44664892

[Captain Shortwave]

Nothing spectacular in terms of temperature here.

27c, 27c, 24c, 25c, 26c the highs from Monday to Friday respectively with a refreshing NE wind throughout.

The weekend however seems to be a turning point with 29c tomorrow and 31c on Sunday if the arpege is correct and with higher humidity.

There appears to be no end in sight to this spell of fine and very warm weather.

[summer blizzard]

For me it has been too hot however there are moments when I have sympathy since a big part of me does like sunny, dry, extreme weather.

 

Sunday-Tuesday felt quite humid here however today has felt quite pleasent. The current models would keep humidity and nights relatively cool.

 

 

[cheese]

Each of the past 6 days have been above 26C, and 5 of those have been above 27C. And every day since Friday last week has been sunny.

And the fact that our 7 day forecast still has every day sunny is quite remarkable really. 

I'd like a day above 30C but I can't complain about this weather at all. It's wonderful - especially since humidity has been low (every day it's been below 40%) and nights have been comfortable.

Edited June 29, 2018 by cheese

[Nick L]

39 minutes ago, cheese said:

Each of the past 6 days have been above 26C, and 5 of those have been above 27C. And every day since Friday last week has been sunny.

And the fact that our 7 day forecast still has every day sunny is quite remarkable really. 

I'd like a day above 30C but I can't complain about this weather at all. It's wonderful - especially since humidity has been low (every day it's been below 40%) and nights have been comfortable.

Sadly, for those of us in the south at least, the comfortable humidity is not going to last. I suspect that's when many around these parts will be glad to see the back of it.

[summer blizzard]

To answer my own question of which summers had such great May-June periods (12.7+ and 15.5+) i took a look at the statistics. 

There are 37 May's that fit the bill..

There are 11 May-June periods that fit the bill. 

Of those 11 the single year with an above average July is 1947, one of only two years to have an above average August. 

..

I'm not saying it shall happen, but i am saying that we have to set some May-x CET records to keep this going in all likelyhood.

Exceptional period. 

[moorlander]

18 hours ago, Nick L said:

The real acid test for me will be my run of night shifts over this weekend. Up until now I've been enjoying the warmth.

I've been on nights since monday and i'm starting to feel like a zombie, have only managed to get 3, 4hours max (if i'm lucky) due to the day time heat so good luck

[I remember Atlantic 252]

not nice today, early I know, but east wind and full cover of sea mist

[danm]

The latest BBC forecast showed the hottest places over the last 5 days. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday the winner was Porthmadog with 32c, 33c and 33c. Remarkable really that a small town on the NW coast of Wales in the shadow of Snowdonia has reached those temperatures and been the hottest place in the country for 3 consecutive days. 

[Weather-history]

Manchester Summer Index has rocketed up over the past week and looks continuing to climb into next week. 

[reef]

11 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester Summer Index has rocketed up over the past week and looks continuing to climb into next week. 

Its only 215 here to the 29th, which is the joint lowest since 2012!

Its mainly due to the persistent easterlies and hence a mean max of only 19.7C though. We've only had 10 days with rainfall and we're above average on sunshine.

[Captain Shortwave]

Arpege showing the potential for 30C to still be hit over the next four days.

      

 

   

Central/Southern England favoured along with inland parts of Ireland. A bit more variability for Wales/Northern England/Northern Ireland and Scotland where there could be more cloud on some days but still scope for some very warm conditons at times. I suspect things should improve along eastern coasts a tad as the winds fall fairly slack which should reduce the cooling effect off the north sea.

Beyond this, the Azores high looks set to build strongly towards the UK so maybe the chance of one or two showers in the far south and far north before we see another strong lid on convection develop so more clear blue skies likely for most.

[damianslaw]

11 hours ago, danm said:

The latest BBC forecast showed the hottest places over the last 5 days. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday the winner was Porthmadog with 32c, 33c and 33c. Remarkable really that a small town on the NW coast of Wales in the shadow of Snowdonia has reached those temperatures and been the hottest place in the country for 3 consecutive days. 

Porthmadog is very sheltered by the Snowdonian hills, and benefits from the foen effect so to speak when there is the lightest of easterly drifts to the wind, the same thing happens in the NE Grampians when a SW wind in the winter takes hold, highest temps often occur to the lee of high ground in such situations. So not unusual in this sense. The persistance though of the current synoptics is quite abnormal, the high has virtually not changed in core position for 7 days, meaning the warmest temps have been reserved for the NW quarter of the country for 6 days running now which is far from normal.

Here we have had 5 days above the 27 degree mark, today brought a max of 29 degrees, yesterday was the same, Wednesday and Thursday we hit 30 degrees. We had very similar conditions to what we are seeing now in August 1976 and 1995 when the core of the warmth settled in situ in western parts at times, as the high drifted to the north. 

The most notable aspect of the weather last 7 days has been the total absence of any cloud, again due to the high being directly overhead. It is rare to see such a long run of cloudless days, sunshine levels have gone through the roof. Its also been a clear high - making for great visibility. It doesn't get any better than this for summer weather in the Lakes, I don't want humid southerlies, or temps in the low 30 degrees and the hazy skies they bring. We could though do with some welcome rain before too long.

[Nick L]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Porthmadog is very sheltered by the Snowdonian hills, and benefits from the foen effect so to speak when there is the lightest of easterly drifts to the wind, the same thing happens in the NE Grampians when a SW wind in the winter takes hold, highest temps often occur to the lee of high ground in such situations. So not unusual in this sense. The persistance though of the current synoptics is quite abnormal, the high has virtually not changed in core position for 7 days, meaning the warmest temps have been reserved for the NW quarter of the country for 6 days running now which is far from normal.

Here we have had 5 days above the 27 degree mark, today brought a max of 29 degrees, yesterday was the same, Wednesday and Thursday we hit 30 degrees. We had very similar conditions to what we are seeing now in August 1976 and 1995 when the core of the warmth settled in situ in western parts at times, as the high drifted to the north. 

The most notable aspect of the weather last 7 days has been the total absence of any cloud, again due to the high being directly overhead. It is rare to see such a long run of cloudless days, sunshine levels have gone through the roof. Its also been a clear high - making for great visibility. It doesn't get any better than this for summer weather in the Lakes, I don't want humid southerlies, or temps in the low 30 degrees and the hazy skies they bring. We could though do with some welcome rain before too long.

The best part of it being a high pressure warm spell rather than a plume is that nights have been comfortable. Quite unusual to get such diurnal ranges at this time of year.

[Mapantz]

For the third night in a row, the temperature has started to climb again. It drops off, then around 11pm, it goes back up. It was 19.2°C half hour ago, it's now 20.2°C. Weird thing is, it feels quite cool now, relative to what it has been during the day, so it feels comfortable to sleep in.