Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[Methuselah]

Good post SB, and a lot of work has undoubtedly gone into it...Having said that, I still have little or no faith in purely statistically-based attempted seasonal forecasts. IMO, there are simply too many variables (many of which we probably still do not even know about?) to make SLRFs all that reliable. As yet.

PS: Aren't we always 'rolling dice'?

[Evening thunder]

I got back home to Devon yesterday and it was a stunning day with just a few patches of cumulus and a max of 26.2C, which is the warmest of the year by 0.1C.
We can be favoured with N/NE winds, although even so the synoptic chart didn't look quite as good on face value as the conditions actually were.


Mostly cloudy today although it still reached 22.8C earlier but dropped closer to 20C after 2pm.

Edited June 12, 2018 by Evening thunder

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ay, looks like winds all the way from north pole

[draztik]

Interestingly, the weather company/channel is forecasting a wetter and cooler summer than average for the UK and NW Europe, in complete disagreement with accuweather.com 

this would correspond well, with what summer blizzard suggests above. 

Weather.com

Edited June 12, 2018 by draztik

[markyo]

8 hours ago, draztik said:

Interestingly, the weather company/channel is forecasting a wetter and cooler summer than average for the UK and NW Europe, in complete disagreement with accuweather.com 

this would correspond well, with what summer blizzard suggests above. 

Weather.com

That would suit me fine! Fingers crossed things stay as they are for the time being,no awful heat on the cards. Praying we don't get anywhere near that 30c this summer,weather like that is just pointless in the UK.

[stainesbloke]

51 minutes ago, markyo said:

That would suit me fine! Fingers crossed things stay as they are for the time being,no awful heat on the cards. Praying we don't get anywhere near that 30c this summer,weather like that is just pointless in the UK.

As long as sunshine is average or above this summer, I’m not overly fussed about temperatures. Average is ok here, anything between 22-26C, comfortable and pleasant. 

[markyo]

4 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

As long as sunshine is average or above this summer, I’m not overly fussed about temperatures. Average is ok here, anything between 22-26C, comfortable and pleasant. 

Agree,22 to 26 is fine,even i can bear that! But much over that and things become unpleasant especially for working in.

[stainesbloke]

6 minutes ago, markyo said:

Agree,22 to 26 is fine,even i can bear that! But much over that and things become unpleasant especially for working in.

Doesn’t look like anything hot is coming our way for a while, so you can relax. Hopefully no too much cloud to come but knowing this part of the world, it’ll be grey grey grey, as if we don’t get enough cloud outside summer.

[draztik]

23 hours ago, draztik said:

Interestingly, the weather company/channel is forecasting a wetter and cooler summer than average for the UK and NW Europe, in complete disagreement with accuweather.com 

this would correspond well, with what summer blizzard suggests above. 

Weather.com

Interestingly, the latest CFS ensemble forecast for summer'18 starting to come onboard with the weather company's assessment.

Edited June 13, 2018 by draztik

[simshady]

Lovely today......bit like autumn.

[MP-R]

Other than the mugginess it does look a bit autumnal out there.

[Evening thunder]

it's an interesting analysis by Summer Blizzard, although I may be tempted to put more weighting on what the seasonal forecasts etc are suggesting for this year, as that's a small sample size that could just be coincidence.

It does appear of numerical prediction systems, including the Met Offices probability maps and reflected in their contingency planners forecast show a increased chance of more high pressure and drier/warmer than normal conditions, and global teleconnections appear that they might be supportive given updates from the likes of Tamera.

Of course there's a chance of a wetter and cooler summer still, and it's probably not worth losing sleep over what either method shows.

[markyo]

I suspect we can pretty well say now June will not produce any heatwave(thankfully),July,still to far to call but things are looking pretty good for those who wish to avoid that horror of 30c! Long may it continue!

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, markyo said:

I suspect we can pretty well say now June will not produce any heatwave(thankfully),July,still to far to call but things are looking pretty good for those who wish to avoid that horror of 30c! Long may it continue!

I tend to agree Mark: 30C is a tad to much for me, too. Having said that, the fact that late Spring/early Summer has so far been somewhat 'on the warm side', one-or-two 30C+ days mightn't be quite as draining as those of the past few years?

Last-year's 'two too-hot days and a drizzle-fest' didn't do it for me, I'm afraid!

[Mapantz]

No real complaints from me down here.

Here's the first 13 max temp days of June:

Compare that to last year:

 

[draztik]

Follwing on from the recent CFS output which is edging for a below average summer, Japan's ensemble model -JAMSTEC - has had a change of heart in it's latest assessment.

June update going for below average/average for the June - August period in the U.K. In contrast to May's update which showed above average. 

May & June updates from JAMSTEC.

Edited June 16, 2018 by draztik

[ARW WeatherMan]

Slightly off topic but do you guys know what whether we have ever recorded a UV index of 9 here in the UK? 

I see many places as far north as Nottingham will be hitting 8 next week provided there are clear skies and many times I've known the UV to hit 8 in London, most years we get atleast 7-10 days I'd say but surely somewhere on the south coast will have hit 9 on a few accasions.

I also regularly check www.temis.nl which gives a clear sky UV index forecast which over many years I've come to realise is generally is out by 1UV. They are forecasting 7.5 in London next week which if I'm right would mean 8.5 and surely the south coast could hit 9 by that reasoning? Any thoughts or facts would be interesting to hear. Thankyou :) 

[Weather-history]

Noticing how brown the grass is in places. The ground is very dry and any rain that has fallen is quickly soaked up. 

[Evening thunder]

16 hours ago, draztik said:

Follwing on from the recent CFS output which is edging for a below average summer, Japan's ensemble model -JAMSTEC - has had a change of heart in it's latest assessment.

June update going for below average/average for the June - August period in the U.K. In contrast to May's update which showed above average. 

May & June updates from JAMSTEC.

Looks like getting off to a good start if the current model trends (and further outlook, contingency planers, seasonal maps from the Met Office etc) are correct 

June is currently 1.6C above the full month's average here. Some cool nights could bring that down a tad later this week but with today's 0.6mm of rain bringing my monthly total to 0.8mm (and the 35 day total to about 17mm), I think the story at least down here could well be dryness, with the model output consistently showing little rain.

[draztik]

2 hours ago, Evening thunder said:

Looks like getting off to a good start if the current model trends (and further outlook, contingency planers, seasonal maps from the Met Office etc) are correct 

June is currently 1.6C above the full month's average here. Some cool nights could bring that down a tad later this week but with today's 0.6mm of rain bringing my monthly total to 0.8mm (and the 35 day total to about 17mm), I think the story at least down here could well be dryness, with the model output consistently showing little rain.

Indeed - couldn’t disagree with this at all! Dryness, at least for the south, could be notable - rather than heat, IMO. 

Edited June 17, 2018 by draztik

[Evening thunder]

Yes it does seem more certain to be dry than very warm/hot, as the high could be slightly to the west of the UK at times. Of course it may well set up over us or drift east bringing heat but that's too far off to know at the moment.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

shocking weather today, howling wind and full cloud, was meant to be sunny with light winds

[davehsug]

4 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

shocking weather today, howling wind and full cloud, was meant to be sunny with light winds

You clearly must be the unluckiest place in the UK! Here it was largely cloudy, but bright, with occasional sunshine. Fairly windy but warm. All in all a very pleasant day.

[Mokidugway]

Output looking very sexy , I feel a BBQ coming on

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, davehsug said:

You clearly must be the unluckiest place in the UK! Here it was largely cloudy, but bright, with occasional sunshine. Fairly windy but warm. All in all a very pleasant day.

ay, 45 minutes heavy rain from around 7pm, totally unforecast, sunny evening was forecast