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May 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


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Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    12.9°C

    55mm

    Thank you please!

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    Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

    12.6c and 48mm thanks.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Manchester 35m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, Snow, Winter, Summer storms after a 'heatwave'
  • Location: South Manchester 35m asl
    On 25/04/2018 at 17:48, Dkeane3 said:

    73.2mm and 11.7c please

    May I bump my temp guess up to 11.8c please?

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    That big gap between (1) 15.1 in 1833 and (2) 13.9 in 1848 could get a visitor this month. Going to say 14.4 for fun.

    Also a rather dry month, 32 mm. 

    These are the guesses so far, any * indicates duplicates. I will publish complete tables of entries around 4th of May when all are posted. Will update this little summary after midnight. Medians as of now are 12.2 C and 68 mm. 

    CET (*C)

    9.2 9.4 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.5 11.7* 11.8*** 11.9** 12.0***

    12.1 12.2*** 12.3** 12.4**** 12.5** 12.6** 12.7* 12.8* 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.4 14.4 17.5

    EWP (mm)

    32 34 39 41 42 45 48 50.1 51 54 55** 58* 60* 63 64 68* 68.8 69 70*

    70.5 70.8 71 72.1 73.2 76 77.7 80  83 85* 86 87 97 100 120 200

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    12.7C.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    12.5*C and 56 mm please. 

    Hoping that drier tendencies expand down from the north more than seen for much of this month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    It’s going to be a warm month I feel 13.8c cheers. With below average rainfall a miracle 35mm.

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    These are the guesses to the on-time deadline of 0001h May 1st, will be posting complete tables in the competition and scoring thread on the 4th but so far we have these, any * indicates duplicates. Where you see one * that means two forecasts at that value, ** means three, etc.

    Medians as of now are 12.2 C and 68 mm. 

    CET (*C) _ 61 entries

    9.2 9.4 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.5* 11.6 11.7* 11.8*** 11.9*** 12.0**** 12.1 12.2***

    12.3** 12.4**** 12.5**** 12.6*** 12.7** 12.8** 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.4 17.5

    EWP (mm) _ 47 entries

    32 34 35 39 41* 42 45 48 50 50.1 51 54 55** 56 58* 60* 63 64 68* 68.8 69 70*

    70.5 70.8 71 72.1 73.2 76 77.7 80  83 85* 86 87 95 97 100 120 200

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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

    12.2c and 98mm.Hope I don't get a penalty for being a few mins late genuine reason for that. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

    Dam forgot all about it in time.
    Only a few mins late :D

    12.7c
    68mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    1981-2010 CET May averages and extremes 1772-2017

     

    DATE ____ AVG __ CUM AVG _______ MAX yr ___ MIN yr (extremes 1772-2017)

    ___ 01 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.6 ________16.1 1990,2005 _ 4.2 1866

    ___ 02 ___ 10.4 ___ 10.5 __________ 16.4 1966 __ 3.8 1979

    ___ 03 ___ 10.5 ___ 10.5 __________ 17.7 1990 __ 3.1 1877

    ___ 04 ___ 10.3 ___ 10.5 __________ 18.0 1834 __ 3.2 1877

    ___ 05 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.5 __________ 16.7 1800 __ 4.0 1979

    ___ 06 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.6 __________ 18.8 1867 __ 4.4 1831

    ___ 07 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.7 __________ 16.8 2008 __ 4.1 1879

    ___ 08 ___ 10.9 ___ 10.7 __________ 17.8 2016 __ 2.9 1861

    ___ 09 ___ 10.7 ___ 10.7 _______ 17.6 1945,2016 _ 5.7 1837

    ___ 10 ___ 10.8 ___ 10.7 __________ 18.2 1959 __ 4.1 1879

    ___ 11 ___ 11.1 ___ 10.7 __________ 18.6 2008 __ 4.1 1773

    ___ 12 ___ 11.3 ___ 10.8 __________ 18.8 1945 __ 4.4 1816

    ___ 13 ___ 11.6 ___ 10.8 __________ 17.4 1959 __ 5.0 1915

    ___ 14 ___ 11.7 ___ 10.9 __________ 18.8 1992 __ 3.9 1839

    ___ 15 ___ 11.7 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1833 __ 4.3 1839

    ___ 16 ___ 11.5 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1808 __ 5.2 1996

    ___ 17 ___ 11.3 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.7 1833 __ 3.6 1935

    ___ 18 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.1 1952 __ 4.1 1872

    ___ 19 ___ 11.8 ___ 11.1 __________ 20.4 1868 __ 5.2 1872

    ___ 20 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.1 __________ 17.8 1916 __ 5.5 1907

    ___ 21 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.2 __________ 18.8 1916 __ 5.7 1894

    ___ 22 ___ 12.2 ___ 11.2 __________ 19.5 1918 __ 5.0 1867

    ___ 23 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.3 __________ 19.5 1922 __ 4.9 1867

    ___ 24 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.4 __________ 18.8 1953 __ 5.7 1867

    ___ 25 ___ 12.5 ___ 11.4 __________ 21.0 1953 __ 6.5 1814

    ___ 26 ___ 12.4 ___ 11.5 __________ 18.7 1784 __ 4.6 1821

    ___ 27 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.5 __________ 19.0 1788 __ 6.6 1984

    ___ 28 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.5 __________ 20.6 1847 __ 6.2 1869

    ___ 29 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.2 1780 __ 6.2 1869 ___ (note 21.1 1944, 20.8 1947)

    ___ 30 ___ 13.1 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.0 1944 __ 4.9 1807 ___ (note 19.9 1947)

    ___ 31 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.7 __________ 20.5 1947 __ 6.4 1802

    ___________________________________________________________________________

    Top ten for May and all 20.0+

     1. 21.2 (29th, 1780)

     2. 21.1 (29th, 1944)

     3. 21.0 (25th, 1953), 21.0 (30th, 1944)

     5. 20.8 (29th, 1947)

     6. 20.6 (28th, 1847)

     7. 20.5 (31st, 1947)

     8. 20.4 (19th, 1868)

     9. 20.0 (15th, 1833) 20.0 (16th, 1808), 20.0 (31st, 1781)

    (19.9 on 30 May 1947)

    _____________________________________________________________________________

    In researching that list, found this remarkable sequence in May 1807 ... 19.8 on 25th (record for date is 21.0 in 1953) to 4.9 C on 30th (record minimum).

    It is also interesting to note that all of these warm days occurred before or during May 1953. 

    The warmest May day since the end of May 1953 has been 19.4 (31 May 1978). The warmest since then was 18.9 (31 May 2003). 

    We seem very overdue for some record warmth in mid to late May to add some more 20+ days to this list. 

    When the all-time April record of 19.7 was set in 1775, these are the only days that year with a higher average CET ... 20.4 on 6th June, 21.1 on 21st July, 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    8.0 to the 1st

    1.4 below the 61 to 90 average

    2.6 below the 81 to 10 average

    ______________________________________

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    On 30/04/2018 at 20:09, Roger J Smith said:

    That big gap between (1) 15.1 in 1833 and (2) 13.9 in 1848 could get a visitor this month. Going to say 14.4 for fun.

    Also a rather dry month, 32 mm. 

    These are the guesses so far, any * indicates duplicates. I will publish complete tables of entries around 4th of May when all are posted. Will update this little summary after midnight. Medians as of now are 12.2 C and 68 mm. 

    CET (*C)

    9.2 9.4 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.5 11.7* 11.8*** 11.9** 12.0***

    12.1 12.2*** 12.3** 12.4**** 12.5** 12.6** 12.7* 12.8* 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.4 14.4 17.5

    EWP (mm)

    32 34 39 41 42 45 48 50.1 51 54 55** 58* 60* 63 64 68* 68.8 69 70*

    70.5 70.8 71 72.1 73.2 76 77.7 80  83 85* 86 87 97 100 120 200

    I think you might be right Roger ... but I'm too chicken to make such a punt :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    9.3 to the 2nd

    0.2 below the 61 to 90 average

    1.2 below the 81 to 10 average

    ______________________________________

    Current high this month 

    9.3 to the 2nd

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