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Roger J Smith

May 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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3 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

May confirmed as 13.3C (adjustment of -0.2C), so joint 15th warmest on record. Doesn't look like anybody got it correct, but @Radiating Dendrite was closest, so congratz!
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

I'll update with a few stats in a couple of hours

Woohooo!!

 

Popping the champagne cork as I type :)

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Posted (edited)
On 30/04/2018 at 22:45, Daniel* said:

It’s going to be a warm month I feel 13.8c cheers. With below average rainfall a miracle 35mm.

Not far off almost winner.. certainly was a notably warm month in London sunniest in ages...

Edited by Daniel*

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I suspect they will go with 13.2 but either way these are the closest forecasts. Steve B has it for 13.2 and Radiating Dendrite for 13.3 ... ties are broken by earlier entries (this list includes the order of entry from the overall field) ... this is just a portion of a larger table over in the other thread.

 

13.8 _ DANIEL* (58)

13.7 _

13.6 _

13.5 _ VIRTUALSPHERE (64*)

13.4 _ RADIATING DENDRITE (12)

13.3 _ 

13.2 _ 

13.1 _ STEVE B (20)

13.0 _ POLAR GAEL (11)

12.9 _ MAPANTZ (46)

12.8 _ WEATHER26 (6), KIRKCALDY WEATHER (22), DAVEHSUG (59)

12.7 _ MAN WITH BEARD (37), SUMMER BLIZZARD (54), SEASIDE 60 (63*)

12.6 _ PEGG24 (5), SUMMER SUN (23), GODBER.1 (48), MARK BAYLEY (53)

===================== =========================

No sign of any EWP totals yet, would imagine 30-40 mm will do well. 

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13.2 has now been confirmed in all the tables so I guess they rounded down, must have been like 13.249 or something.

This is the first time May has had consecutive similar CET values (2017, 2018) since 2003-04 both hit 12.1. Before that, it was 1924-25 hitting 11.6. And before that 1846-47 were both 12.3. Then it's all the way back to 1717-18 for twin 11.0, before that more frequent as most of the values are multiples of 0.5 in the Maunder period. 

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Posted (edited)

Thanks as ever to Roger for helping me run this.

Monthly Figures
SteveB was 0.1c with Polar Gael and Radiating Dendrite 0.2c out.

However, Radiating Dendrite very unlucky with the figure being rounded down to 13.2c

Top 10

image.thumb.png.4c84c5a624aa42ae5c0f8d2dbe93a175.png

Seasonal
Man with Beard stayed in a comfortable first place, with Radiating Dendrite 2nd and Godber 1 in 3rd.

If the CET figure for the month was 13.3c, Man with Beard would still have won but by a lower margin from Radiating Dendrite.

image.thumb.png.25ff4a8148804887add12167566f1107.png

Overall
No change at the top with Man with Beard still well in the lead.

Don up one place to 2nd and Norrance up 1 place to 3rd. 

This month's winner SteveB up 12 places 10th (from 22nd)

image.thumb.png.122cc8d932d2dba681758af1b11ed553.png

Excel Format

May 2018 CET.xlsx

Edited by J10
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6 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

13.2 has now been confirmed in all the tables so I guess they rounded down, must have been like 13.249 or something.

This is the first time May has had consecutive similar CET values (2017, 2018) since 2003-04 both hit 12.1. Before that, it was 1924-25 hitting 11.6. And before that 1846-47 were both 12.3. Then it's all the way back to 1717-18 for twin 11.0, before that more frequent as most of the values are multiples of 0.5 in the Maunder period. 

It should also be noted that both May's 2017 and 2018 are the only two May's in the CET record to have a mean of 13.2 c. So quite remarkable that they were both in immediate succession.

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Amazing that last May has ended up as warm as this one just gone. It has certainly felt 100 times better in these parts.

Certainly in the west, sunshine levels have been a lot higher than last year. Rostherne near Manchester Airport recorded 272 hours in the month which is very high for an inland station.

In the setup we had we were a little unlucky to have a couple of cloudy days which stopped it getting close to 300 hours. The number of clear sunny mornings in the month was quite remarkable.

The CET could have been a good deal higher without the low minima earlier in the month. A lot of days exceeded 20C although there weren't many exceptionally hot days.

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14 days of the month exceeded 20C in Manchester to be exact. Also a fair few other days reached 18 or 19C which often felt very pleasant in the sunshine.

Overall a very memorable month and very few days of rain. Wonderful to see so much sunshine with the sun so bright and high in the sky and with the long days.

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Posted (edited)

Update on CET scoring for consensus and two recent normals

 

___ Past months ____

____________DEC _________________________ JAN ________________________ FEB

"Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range)

1987-2016*__ +0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 (88-17)>--0.6 __66.7 - 74.1 _ 15 to 19 ______ +1.9 _ 31.2 - 35.1 _ 51 to 54

1981-2010 __ --0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 ______ --0.9 __ 50.0 - 55.6 _ 25 to 28 ______ +1.5 _ 48.1 - 49.4 _ 40 to 41

Consensus __--0.6 __ 71.0 - 74.9 __20 to 23 _____--0.9 __ 50.0 -55.6 _ 25 to 28 _______+1.1 _ 57.1 - 58.4 _ 33 to 34

* becomes 1988-2017 from JAN onward.

____________ MAR ___________________________________ APR ________________ 

"Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __

1988-2017 __ +1.9 __ 20.8 - 22.1 __ 60 to 61 ____ --1.1 __ 72.2--72,2 __ 18 to 18

1981-2010 __ +1.7 __ 26.1 - 26.1 __ 57 to 57 ____ --1.3 __ 57.4--65.6 __ 22 to 27

Consensus __--0.3 __ 78.9 - 85.5 __12 to 17 ____ --1.4 __ 50.8--55.8 __ 28 to 31

 

________ Current Month __ May 2018 ________________ Contest year averages to date (6 mo)___

"Forecaster" _May Error_ May Points (range)_rank (range) // mean abs error_mean points_mean rank

1988-2017 ___ --1.3 _____ 28.6 - 33.3 ____ 43 to 46 ________ 1.17 _____ 51.8 - 55.2 __ 32 to 35

1981-2010 ___ --1.5 _____ 19.1 - 20.6 ____ 51 to 52 ________ 1.18 _____ 48.4 - 51.8 __ 34 to 36

Consensus ___--1.0 _____ 46.1 - 54.0 ____ 30 to 35 ________ 0.87 _____ 59.0 - 64.1 __ 25 to 28

___________________________________________________________________________

Our consensus continues to edge ahead further after its better performance than the two normals in May, although still ranking only middle of the pack this year, compared to the better rankings and point totals that all three of the robotic forecasters achieved in the 2016-17 competition year. However it should be noted that our consensus only beat the two normals in three* out of six months so far (Feb, Mar, May). *(consensus tied 1981-2010 in January).

The average error of consensus (not absolute) is -0.52 deg, meaning that on average, our forecasts have been 0.52 degrees below actual values, but the larger positive errors of the normals in cold months Feb and Mar leaves them with average errors that are smaller (+0.13 for 1988-2017 and -0.12 for 1981-2010). 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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On 02/06/2018 at 17:44, Roger J Smith said:

13.2 has now been confirmed in all the tables so I guess they rounded down, must have been like 13.249 or something.

This is the first time May has had consecutive similar CET values (2017, 2018) since 2003-04 both hit 12.1. Before that, it was 1924-25 hitting 11.6. And before that 1846-47 were both 12.3. Then it's all the way back to 1717-18 for twin 11.0, before that more frequent as most of the values are multiples of 0.5 in the Maunder period. 

Excellent - many thanks as ever to everyone who makes this competition happen and good fun and interesting, too. Just hope I'm as accurate with June's prediction (flaming about covers it)!

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Great month here - consistently warm but never really hot with temps tending to reach low 20s.

Overall average for the month was 14.2c with the average high 20.1c.

65mm of rain but that came in short, sharp bursts via thunderstorms. Overall the word gorgeous sums up the month perfectly!

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Posted (edited)

 Scoring for May EWP contest

The NCIC version is 48.8 mm. 

__ Full scoring tables here ___

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=9

Top scores for May and annual follow ...

MAY EWP scoring

Rank _ Score _ Forecast _ Error __ Forecaster

 1. _____10.0 ___ 48.0 __ -0.8 ___ GODBER.1

 2. _____ 9.8 ___ 50.0 __ +1.2 ___ J10

 3. _____ 9.6 ___ 50.1 __ +1.3 ___ POLAR GAEL

 4. _____ 9.4 ___ 51.0 __ +2.2 ___ NORRANCE

 5. _____ 9.2 ___ 45.0 __ -3.8 ___ B87

 6. _____ 9.0 ___ 54.0 __ +5.2 ___ BORN FROM THE VOID

T7 _____ 8.8 ___ 55.0 __ +6.2 ___ TIMMYTOUR, THE PIT, MAPANTZ

10. _____ 8 2 ___ 42.0 __ -6.6 ___ MULZY

11. _____ 8.0 ___ 56.0 __ +7.2 ___ SINGULARITY

T12 ____ 7.8 ___ 41.0 __ -7.8 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE, DAVEHSUG

T14 ____ 7.4 ___ 58.0 __ +9.2___ DAMI, REEF

 

Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to May 2018) -- top scores

 

Rank __ Forecaster _________________Dec__Jan__Feb__Mar__Apr__May___TOTAL __ previous rank

 

_01 ___ SINGULARITY ______________5.2 __7.2 __9.8 __7.7 __6.4 __8.0 ___ 44.3 ____ _ 03

_02 ___ JONBOY __________________ 9.2 __7.8 __6.4 __9.6 __7.5 __3.7 ___ 44.2 ____ _ 01

_03 ___ POLAR GAEL _______________4.6 __9.4 __8.6 __2.6 __8.2 __9.6 ___ 43.0 ____ _ 06

_04 ___  BORN FROM THE VOID ______6.4 __9.8 __3.5 __5.7 __7.5 __9.0 ___ 41.9 ____ _ 07

_05 ___ NORRANCE ________________7.0 __2.2 __8.4 __9.3 __5.4 __9.4 ___ 41.7 ____ _T-11

_06 ___  J10 _______________________4.4 __7.6 __0.7 __8.3 __9.2 __9.8 ___ 40.0 ____ _ 13

_07 ___ STEWFOX _________________ 7.0 __9.4 __4.0 __8.9 __8.2 __0.6 ___ 38.1 ____ _ 02

_08___ SEASIDE 60 ________________ 5.8 __4.5 __4.8 __8.8 __8.4 __ 5.1 ___ 37.4 ____ _ T-11

_09 ___ DON ______________________ 1.8 __6.1 __7.4 __8.3 __8.8 __4.3 ___ 36.7 ____ _T-09

_10 ___ GODBER.1 _________________ 2.4 __7.4 __5.5 __3.5 __7.5 _10.0 ___ 36.1 ____ _ 19

_11 ___ SIMSHADY _________________ 8.2 __8.4 __0.4 __7.2 __9.8 __1.8 ___ 35.8 ____ _ 05

_12 ___ STEVE B ___________________7.4 __8.2 __3.5 __8.8 __7.5 __0.2 ___ 35.6 ____ _ 04

_13 ___ DKEANE3 __________________ 7.2 __7.6 __5.2 __9.1 __3.6 __2.8 ___ 35.5 ____ _ 08

(14) ___ consensus _________________ 5.2 __6.3 __5.0 __5.7__7.7 __5.3 ___ 35.2 ____ _ (16)

_14 ___ DR (S) NO __________________9.8 __8.8 __1.2 __6.2 __6.4 __2.4 ___ 34.8 ____ _T-09 

(15) ___ average 1981-2010 __________ 7.8 __7.0 __5.1 __5.0 __2.6 __6.4 ___ 33.9 ____ _ (19)

_15 ___ CHRISBELL-NOTTHEWxMAN _ 10.0__6.8 __2.6 __6.4 __4.0 __3.9 ___ 33.7 ____ _ 16

_16 ___ MAPANTZ __________________ 5.2 __6.8 __1.9 __4.3 __6.4 __8.8 ___ 33.4 ____ _ 24

_17 ___ MULZY _____________________7.0 __8.6 __6.7 __0.9 __1.8 __8.2 ___ 33.2 ____ _ 22

_18 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE __________3.4 __3.3 __9.8_ 10.0 __3.6 __3.0 ___ 33.1 ____ _ 14

(19)___ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16)__7.9 __8.3 __3.9 __3.4 __2.4 __6.4 ___ 32.3 ____ _ (20)

_19 ___ SYED2878 __________________4.8 _ 10.0__3.8 __5.0 __2.2 __6.1 ___ 31.9 ____ _ 20

_20 ___ DAVEHSUG _________________1.0 __1.2 __9.1 __4.8 __7.5 __7.8 ___ 31.4 ____ _ 27

(notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)  

Very close at the top of the annual scoring, Singularity edged ahead of Jonboy by just 0.1 with Polar Gael, Born from the Void and Norrance in close pursuit. 

I will update the alternate Hadley scoring table when they report their version. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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As you may know, there are some problems in opening excel files on NW, it's not J10's fault that we can't easily open them, something is added to the attachment name by the NW software. The trick is to download the file then rename it so that .xlsx is at the end of the file name (all that other gobbledegook added by NW can go to oblivion), then get your own computer (assuming you have excel installed) to open the file even if you have to coax it through the "do you really want to open this file?" stages.

I have just done that and here's the condensed version of the annual standings down to 30th place (if you're not in this list, you need to make some really good forecasts in part two of the contest year). 

The top ten can be seen in J10's summary post earlier, but I have included them in this list which is just the bare bones, names and total points. 

1. Man with Beard ___ 494.7 _______ 11. pegg24 _______ 403.3 ________ 21. seaside 60 _____ 363.8

2. Don ____________ 468.8 _______ 12. damianslaw ____401.5 ________ 22. polar gael ______ 360.8

3. Norrance ________ 456.4 _______ 13. mulzy ________ 400.9 ________ 23. snowray _______ 355.0

4. doctor 32 ________ 451.7 _______ 14. Optimus Prime _ 396.8 ________ 24. summer blizzard_ 352.0

5. stewfox __________448.7 _______ 15. vizzy2004 _____ 395.6 ________ 25t -davehsug _____ 349.6

6. Godber 1 ________ 440.4 _______ 16. DAVID SNOW__ 395.0 ________ 25t -Ed Stone______ 349.6

7. Singularity _______ 425.1 _______ 17. metaltron______ 393.9 ________ 27. Radiating Dendrite 347.3

8. Born From the Void  423.9 _______ 18. dkeane3 ______ 393.3 ________ 28. stargazer ______ 345.5

9. The Pit __________ 415.1 _______ 19. reef __________387.4 ________ 29. weather 26 _____ 333.7

10. Steve B _________408.6 _______ 20. Mapantz______ 354.4 ________ 30. sundog ________ 323.7

The next ten without details are Midlands Ice Age, Summer Sun, Gael Force, Dr(S)No, virtualsphere, Mark Bayley,

Duncan McAlister, diagonalredline, Roger J Smith, and ChrisBell-not-the-weatherman.

... 41st to end of regulars would be Kentish Man, Jeff C, Bobd29, dancerwithwings, weather-history, Kirkcaldy weather,

Jonboy, Relativistic, dami, AlexisJ9, J10, Stationary Front, daniel*, syed2878, simshady, timmytour, Chris R, 

I Remember Atlantic 252, Blast from the Past, Let it snow!, Prolonged Snow Lover, Lettucing gutted 

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