May 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 13.2C +3.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

12.0 to the 14th

1.5 above the 61 to 90 average

1.1 above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

12.1C to the 15th... +1.2 (13.8: +2.0)
12.2C to the 16th... +1.2 (12.7: +1.3)
12.0C to the 17th... +1.0 (9.6: -1.7)
11.9C to the 18th... +0.9 (10.0: -1.4)
12.0C to the 19th... +0.9 (13.1: +1.3)
12.1C to the 20th... +0.9 (14.1: +1.8)
12.3C to the 21st... +1.1 (15.9: +3.8)
12.4C to the 22nd... +1.1 (14.4: +2.2)
12.5C to the 23rd... +1.2 (15.4: +2.6)
12.5C to the 24th... +1.1 (13.1: -0.2)

Some ups and downs in the coming week but relatively stable overall, a warm final week could leave us above 13C, or into the 20 warmest Mays on record, while a cool final week could see us drop below 12C, or close to the 81-10 average (11.7C).

 

[cheeky_monkey]

Sunny Edmonton has weirdly dropped to 11.8c..due to some strange cool/cold nights for example on the 12th we had a max of 25c and a minimum of -3c..apart from a blip midweek..temps staying in the mid to high 20s for the next week or so.

[snowray]

2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

12.1C to the 15th... +1.2 (13.8: +2.0)
12.2C to the 16th... +1.2 (12.7: +1.3)
12.0C to the 17th... +1.0 (9.6: -1.7)
11.9C to the 18th... +0.9 (10.0: -1.4)
12.0C to the 19th... +0.9 (13.1: +1.3)
12.1C to the 20th... +0.9 (14.1: +1.8)
12.3C to the 21st... +1.1 (15.9: +3.8)
12.4C to the 22nd... +1.1 (14.4: +2.2)
12.5C to the 23rd... +1.2 (15.4: +2.6)
12.5C to the 24th... +1.1 (13.1: -0.2)

Some ups and downs in the coming week but relatively stable overall, a warm final week could leave us above 13C, or into the 20 warmest Mays on record, while a cool final week could see us drop below 12C, or close to the 81-10 average (11.7C).

 

I wonder how often we have had a second half of May that is colder than the first half? 

[BornFromTheVoid]

29 minutes ago, snowray said:

I wonder how often we have had a second half of May that is colder than the first half? 

If we count the first half as the 1st to the 15th and second half as 16th to 31st then it's happened 45 times in the record, so roughly once every 5 years. More often than I would have guesses!
The most recent was 2016, with a first half of and a second half of 12.7C and a second half of 12.4C.
The biggest difference was in 1898, with a first half of 10.94C and second half of 8.16C, giving a difference of 2.8C.

More recently, 2008 was quite notable. First half of 14.6C (2nd warmest first half on record), second half of 12.2C, difference of 2.4C!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield just outside the CET zone at 13.2C +3.3C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[snowray]

1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

If we count the first half as the 1st to the 15th and second half as 16th to 31st then it's happened 45 times in the record, so roughly once every 5 years. More often than I would have guesses!
The most recent was 2016, with a first half of and a second half of 12.7C and a second half of 12.4C.
The biggest difference was in 1898, with a first half of 10.94C and second half of 8.16C, giving a difference of 2.8C.

More recently, 2008 was quite notable. First half of 14.6C (2nd warmest first half on record), second half of 12.2C, difference of 2.4C!

Thats really interesting info, thanks. 

[Summer Sun]

12.2 to the 15th

1.6 above the 61 to 90 average

1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back up to 13.3C +3.3C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Roger J Smith]

Well, looking at the 12z GFS I would say it's mostly 14 to 17 C days from Friday to the 29th with a colder turn at the end of the month in very speculative FI time so that I'm more interested in the trend to 29th or so, which looks like this:

from current 12.2 which I will move forward to 17th as little change seems likely, then if the next 12 days (18th-29th) average these values, we get to the stated CET ...

14.0 gets it to 12.9 C.

15.0 gets it to 13.3 C.

16.0 gets it to 13.7 C.

17.0 gets it to 14.1 C.

As only 1833 broke 14 (and 15) that gets us into second place hunting grounds. Would need to average 19 to challenge 1833 (on my assumption of steady CET to and including Thursday 17th). The study I just finished on extreme weekly values suggests that 19-20 is about the upper limit of sustained warmth in late May so I think 1833 is safe but not as sure about second place 1848 (13.9). Two more lurk at 13.8 (1758 and 1788) with 1808 at 13.7 and 1992 at 13.6. We may pass some of those even if we don't stay ahead of them at the final reckoning. 

[Summer Sun]

12.2 to the 16th

1.5 above the 61 to 90 average

1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back to 13.2C +3.1C degrees above normal rainfall unchanged.

[The PIT]

AS things stand we are going for our warmest May on record. At the moment next week is looking like it will nail it. Also looking like it will in the top ten driest as well at the moment it's the 5th driest.

[Weather26]

Wowsers-This Spring really has been fickle hasn't it-First the Coldest March 1st on record then one of the wettest Easter Weekend's in a long time, then the warmest May Day Bank Holiday on Record (for some areas) and now this (for Sheffield at least.)

[Summer Sun]

12.0 to the 17th

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average

1.0 above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

11.9C to the 18th... +0.9 (10.3: -1.1)
12.0C to the 19th... +0.9 (13.6: +1.8)
12.1C to the 20th... +1.0 (14.5: +2.2)
12.3C to the 21st... +1.1 (16.0: +3.9)
12.5C to the 22nd... +1.2 (15.8: +3.6)
12.6C to the 23rd... +1.3 (16.1: +3.3)
12.8C to the 24th... +1.4 (16.6: +3.3)
13.0C to the 25th... +1.6 (18.3: +5.8)
13.1C to the 26th... +1.6 (15.0: +2.6)
13.1C to the 27th... +1.6 (13.8: +1.7)

A steady warming trend for the foreseeable future. No days yet appear to threaten any daily records, but a reasonable warm spell nonetheless  

 

Something else to keep an eye on, the warmest April and May combinations!
The top 5 are
12.0C (2011)
11.7C (1893)
11.6C (1788, 1798, 1865)

As April was 9.8C, to equal joint third warmest combination we need a May of 13.3C. 2nd place requires 13.5C, both of which lie within the realm of possibility this year. The warmest combination requires May to finish on at least 14.1C, which looks very unlikely.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 13C +2.8C above normal. Rainfall Unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

11.9 to the 18th

1.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.9 above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 12.8C courtesy of cool nights. +2.5C above normal but should rising from now on. Rainfall unchanged.

Edited May 19, 2018 by The PIT

[damianslaw]

Could be a downward adjustment this month of a notable scale - given plenty of cool nights. Alas it now looks almost certain we will see a warmer than average month - at least by 1 degree compared to 61-90 average and quite possibly 2 degrees - combined with lots of dry sunny weather, a May that will probably go down as the best overall since the infamous May of 1992.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 12.9C +2.5C above normal. Not so sure we will get a record warm month all depends on how much cooler air come sin from the east. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

12.0 to the 19th

1.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.9 above the 81 to 10 average

Edited May 20, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Weather-history]

15 hours ago, damianslaw said:

 a May that will probably go down as the best overall since the infamous May of 1992.

Infamous? 

That was a cracking month with thunderstorms too boot. 

4th consecutive May that tended to the extreme.1989 was a beauty, 1990 was very good, 1991 is forgotten, it was very dull especially in the east but it was a remarkably dry month and 1992 was another beauty

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

On 20/04/2018 at 09:20, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Month dominated by HP to W and NW bringing flow from Northern quadrant.  Could be notable month for how cool it will be but fairly dry, particularly W and NW U.K.  For me we are heading down with this year part of the step down.  It has potential to knock on records door......but due to the general ‘warmth’ starting point it will be notable more so for current times.

 

9.4c. And 34mm

 

BFTP

You were right with high pressure dominating, fortunately, the flow of air has mostly brought pleasant temps rather than another cool month