Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

May 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

(a) CET May averages and other statistics

___ table includes all CET values for the period 1981 to 2017 ___

(posting a bit early due to planned vacation time)

 

Extreme warmth

21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780)

20.0 ... 15th (1833) earliest 20.0 CET day.

Warmest months and warmest third of recent May CET (12/37)

15.1 (1833)
13.9 (1848)
13.8 (1758, 1788)
13.7 (1808)
13.6 (1727, 1992)

13.5 (1784, 1868, 1919, 1947)

13.4 ... 2008 (tied with 1726, 1952)

13.2 ... 2017

13.1 ... 1998

13.0 ... 1989

12.9 ... 1999

12.6 ... 1990, 2001

12.5 ... 2016

12.3 ... 2006

12.2 ... 2011, 2014

Averages and middle third of recent May CET (13/37)

12.1 ... 2000, 2003, 2004, 2009 

12.0 ... ... ... 2001-2017 average

11.9 ... 1988, 2007  _ _ 1988-2017 average _ _ and 1991-2017 average (converging on future 1991-2020 average)

11.8 ... 2002

11.7 ... 1981-2010 average and 1986-2015 average, 2012 CET

11.6 ... 1982, 1995

11.5 ... 1997

11.4 ... 1993, 2005 .. 1901-2000 average

11.3 ... 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average

11.2 ... 1981 ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-2017 average of all data

11.1 ... 1986 ... 1801-1900 average

10.9 ... 1985

10.8 ... 1991, 2015

10.7 ... 1994, 2010 ... 1659-1700 average

Coldest Months and coldest third of recent May CET (12/37 starting at 11.2^^)

10.4 ... 2013

10.3 ... 1983

10.1 ... 1987

 9.9 ... 1984

 9.1 ... 1996 tied 13th coldest with two other years, the coldest in recent years)

 8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest

 8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest

 8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest

 8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest

 8.5 ... 1698 was coldest

 

Extreme cold

3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877

2.9 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861)

___________________________________

Post your May CET forecasts before end of day Monday 30th of April to avoid time penalty, or in first three days of May with increasing late penalties.

______________________________________

 

(b) England and Wales precip contest 

Note: this is verified against the "alternative data set" of the UK Met Office (1910 to present), not the Hadley EWP (1766 to present), reason being that Hadley EWP is sometimes quite late to appear. These tables show you the extremes from both sets but the averages only from the contest-usage UKMO set, which so far have been just slightly lower averages and recorded values for our contest by a matter of perhaps 3 to 5 per cent. Anyway, the results would be similar with either set in use, but that's how I decided to go when the January values from Hadley (which I began the contest using) did not appear by mid-February and I was alerted to this alternate series which does get updated quite early in the month. 

The contest asks you to predict the average England and Wales precip in mm. These are the extreme values and recent averages. The extreme values presented are from the 1910 to 2017 Met Office series, the corresponding values from the Hadley series appear in brackets in the same entry lines for 1910-present and in separate entry lines for 1766 to present if those from 1766 to 1909 are more extreme, lack of a reference means that they were not more extreme. In May there were two cases at each end of the spectrum more extreme than the 1910-present data.

 

151.8 ___ (max 1766-present Hadley in 1773) _ 142.4 in 1782 the only other Hadley May wetter than 1967.

133.7 ___ maximum 1910-present in 1967 (Hadley max in same period 140.7 also 1967)

110.3 ___ maximum 1981-present in 1983 -- 2007 was close at 110.1 (Hadley max 118.4 in 2007, 115.2 in 1983)

 61.1 ___ average 1981-2010 and also 1988-2017

 13.9 ___ minimum 1981-present and 1910-present also was in 1991 (Hadley min 13.7 also 1991)

 07.9 ___ (min 1766-present, Hadley, in 1844) _ 12.0 in 1896 the only other Hadley May drier than 1991.

 ________________________________________________________________

Enter the EWP contest in the same post as your CET temperature forecast. Scores are by rank order out of 10.0, 0.2 penalties per day late (0300h 1st May is deadline and 0300h 4th is the absolute cut-off time. 

... Good luck in both contests ... 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

Rest in pieces 'spring' 2018!  17.5C  :(  Last sub 9C May in 1902.  Last sub 10C May in 1996.  Last sub 11C May in 2015.

200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Islington, C. London.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and cool summers.
  • Location: Islington, C. London.

11.3°C and 71.5mm. Average start, quite warm/very warm spell around the middle then very cool close to the end.

Edited by LetItSnow!
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level

12.6c 87mm please 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth

9.2c and 85mm please.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

12.2C and 70 mm please

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

12.0 and 83mm please

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

11.2*C please. On the whole, feel like it will be a mixed month, but perhaps a little drier than average with 60mm rainfall.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

13.0C and 50.1mm for me please. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Month dominated by HP to W and NW bringing flow from Northern quadrant.  Could be notable month for how cool it will be but fairly dry, particularly W and NW U.K.  For me we are heading down with this year part of the step down.  It has potential to knock on records door......but due to the general ‘warmth’ starting point it will be notable more so for current times.

 

9.4c. And 34mm

 

BFTP

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

hello

I would like 11.9 and 58mm

cheers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

11.8c and 64mm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

I'll take 9.9C and 100mm please.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

12.2c and 77.7 mm thank you please

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

13.1C & 120mm please.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

12.8C and 76mm please 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...