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phil nw.

Model output discussion 14/04/18

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9 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Just thought I'd post, I noticed a slight discrepancy with the archive charts for that spell a few weeks ago. On Wetterzentrale, 850's are shown below 15C for that day where Southampton got 35.6C:

NOAA_1_1976062800_1.pngNOAA_1_1976062800_2.png
 

Yet I remembered them being above 16C, so visited the Netweather Archive, and sure enough:

Rrea00119760628.gifRrea00219760628.gif
 

A bit odd but tbh I believe the 2nd one more. I may be wrong as I suppose the extra dry ground could have helped but I don't recall temps being more than 20C above the 850's before, even in dry conditions. I tend to think of a difference around 15C-17C, perhaps 18C tops for sunny dry conditions under high pressure, and I'd probably want to see 850's up around 17C+ to consider the mid 30's.

Just my thoughts though and hardly makes a difference to the output!

How odd indeed! I did actually think the 850s looked a tad low on wetter. Very strange but that would certainly make more sense! As you say though doesn't really alter the output, who have is still glorious!!

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22 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

What a fantastic year of model watching this has been! Hope the ECM is on the money:)

Fully agree, and what a superb Ecm 12z ensemble mean we have again tonight..something tells me the next few weeks could be special with very warm / hot anticyclonic and occasional thundery plume potential.:smile:

EDM1-120.gif

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-240.gif

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Another decent run from gfs this morning suggesting a warm and sunny spell throughout most of next week. Interestingly despite an incredible pattern the majority of Europe isn’t actually going to be that warm with the 15c isotherm notably absent from much of Europe throughout next week apart for Spain, parts or France and it occasionally flirting with southern England. Based on this temps more mid-high20s in the realible timeframe maybe towards 30c at the back end of next week. Ukmo similar to 144 delaying the real warmth but GEM looks a very warm run with temps getting into the 30’s early than GFS. Which ever way it goes I’d haplily take either GFS or GEM this morning.

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ECM fantastic once more. Not a great deal to add other than enjoy the upcoming warm weather!

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Once again the model consensus is for another extreme event of 2018 with a June heatwave with bags and absolutely bags of sunshine in the last 7 days days. All models once again with mediterranian style weather. Ukmo has a bullseye high

B291F4C3-9C4F-4877-B977-FDF8B54C7F1D.jpeg

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ECM gives a max temp of 32.2c next Thursday (thanks to Knocker for the chart in the ramps thread) it is another sensational run this morning without a doubt

ECMOPEU00_168_2.thumb.png.91439685b0ad41d7d57d44bc76ce2c15.pngECMOPEU00_192_2.thumb.png.6e6ef0fe1a79065185b23be41a64ee57.pngECMOPEU00_216_2.thumb.png.224ad63e268799b880346f0e7e85e896.pngECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.aa73ea6652e54b113ae5a349842e26e3.png

 

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Sensational stuff from GFS 00z

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.57b9cf5f12f8f173923ef1307587f07a.pngukmaxtemp.png1.thumb.png.f0c312c1d17ba7f9f6cb1e971a9613c1.pngukmaxtemp.png3.thumb.png.9fd2a9cdd3c48f1ee989b70b284377bb.pngukmaxtemp.png4.thumb.png.a904d432df86aef99a8782f6e66ccb10.png

Flaming June living up to its name

😍🔥🌡😎

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Never understood the flaming June thing. It’s usually the poor relation of July and August. Last time it was warmer than those two months was 1970!

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I feel like I'm stealing @Man With Beard's thunder here by posting these!

ECM clusters for a week today - high pressure or high pressure! Not a great deal of difference really.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062000_168.


By day 10 a few solutions on the table, none unsettled yet, some very hot.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062000_240.



By 360 hours just for fun....high pressure still the most favoured solution, with 70% of members backing it.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062000_360.
 

Edited by mb018538
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9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Never understood the flaming June thing. It’s usually the poor relation of July and August. Last time it was warmer than those two months was 1970!

Perhaps it's to do with the intensity of the sun hitting its peak?

Watching the 06z GFS roll out and it's made a move toward recent ECM runs with the westward limits of the ridge out to the S of Iceland on Wednesday 27th; there's no small LP system trying to erode the ridge away east. Temps are up slightly on the 00z but I agree with MWB that the models tend to underestimate the maximums during such conditions, though I'm not sure about a 5*C error; in my experience it's usually by 1-2*C and very occasionally by as much as 3 or even 4*C. Perhaps a 5*C underestimation was seen last May though - I remember how much we ridiculed GFS at the time.

...and yes, this erroneous behaviour does include ECM, at least as it's represented on that one site that currently shows detailed temperatures. It actually outputs very similar temperatures to GFS for a given setup. Tomorrow, for example, both models have an 18*C maximum here. It will be interesting to see how that fares against ARPEGE's 20*C; with a northerly component to the flow I have seen some of the biggest underestimations in the past, but if it stays cloudier than predicted, the results will be tainted. Fingers crossed it clears up nicely!

h850t850eu.pngukmaxtemp.png

h850t850eu.png ukmaxtemp.png

GFS has some 31s appearing two days running. These numbers are very close to the ECM 00z for those days.

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6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I feel like I'm stealing @Man With Beard's thunder here by posting these!

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062000_168.

ECM clusters for a week today - high pressure or high pressure! Not a great deal of difference really.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062000_240.

By day 10 a few solutions on the table, none unsettled yet, some very hot.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018062000_360.

By 360 hours just for fun....high pressure still the most favoured solution, with 70% of members backing it.

You're very welcome!! Just a very slight increase in members going for a breakdown from the south between D9 and D12, but mostly higher heights in charge all the way, again. 

@Singularity - yes it was in May that the 5C difference occurred - I charted all the models just before one of the hotter spells - ECM (using weather.us data) was the worst culprit of all!! Maybe a one-off :)

Edited by Man With Beard
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7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Perhaps it's to do with the intensity of the sun hitting its peak?

Watching the 06z GFS roll out and it's made a move toward recent ECM runs with the westward limits of the ridge out to the S of Iceland on Wednesday 27th; there's no small LP system trying to erode the ridge away east. Temps are up slightly on the 00z but I agree with MWB that the models tend to underestimate the maximums during such conditions, though I'm not sure about a 5*C error; in my experience it's usually by 1-2*C and very occasionally by as much as 3 or even 4*C. Perhaps a 5*C underestimation was seen last May though - I remember how much we ridiculed GFS at the time.

...and yes, this erroneous behaviour does include ECM, at least as it's represented on that one site that currently shows detailed temperatures. It actually outputs very similar temperatures to GFS for a given setup. Tomorrow, for example, both models have an 18*C maximum here. It will be interesting to see how that fares against ARPEGE's 20*C; with a northerly component to the flow I have seen some of the biggest underestimations in the past, but if it stays cloudier than predicted, the results will be tainted. Fingers crossed it clears up nicely!

h850t850eu.pngukmaxtemp.png

h850t850eu.png ukmaxtemp.png

GFS has some 31s appearing two days running. These numbers are very close to the ECM 00z for those days.

Those temperatures look about right to me for the set up. Like you say, you may see a 1-2c increase, but we're not going to be seeing 35c+ (yet!) from that set up, it's just not hot enough for that.
5 days of baking hot temps to prime the atmosphere, and a switch to a straight southerly from Spain would do it. We've got a good starting point in that most places have been bone dry for quite a while now, so we will extract the maximum from any heating.

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Those temperatures look about right to me for the set up. Like you say, you may see a 1-2c increase, but we're not going to be seeing 35c+ (yet!) from that set up, it's just not hot enough for that.
5 days of baking hot temps to prime the atmosphere, and a switch to a straight southerly from Spain would do it. We've got a good starting point in that most places have been bone dry for quite a while now, so we will extract the maximum from any heating.

Yes agreed, those dodgy temp forecasts in May were largely down to uncertainties in cloud and moisture content. Next week its just blue sky and sun for the most part so I'd expect the models to be much closer to the mark - apart from NAVGEM (I've not looked and flippantly said) which is probably already progging 48C for Leeds on Sunday.....

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So the continental influences continue I suspect this will continue for sometime with atmosphere changing towards a more el Nino setup along with a relatively low solar activity.

High pressure has dominated being strong in nature with minor blips in between.

Dry hot summer was always very much at the forefront of my mind.

Very happy with the models ecm gem and ukmo all very nice classic 80s style summer home grown heat as well.

Excellent outlook 

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16 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

So the continental influences continue I suspect this will continue for sometime with atmosphere changing towards a more el Nino setup along with a relatively low solar activity.

High pressure has dominated being strong in nature with minor blips in between.

Dry hot summer was always very much at the forefront of my mind.

Very happy with the models ecm gem and ukmo all very nice classic 80s style summer home grown heat as well.

Excellent outlook 

Don’t remember that many in the 80s. 83 and 89 were special though.

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GFS ensembles for the 06Z run looking rock solid, nothing more than a 4C spread right out until the 28th when some of the members start the process of breaking down conditions.

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Some quite dry and warm Summery weather looks likely over the next 10 days quite widely.

A look at the 5 and 10 day ECM mean 500hPa charts shows the jet shifting well north as the Azores high extends across the UK.

 EDM1-120.thumb.gif.10700f203ff0d6d807387eafd2591de2.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.42f9c87a60de12c748492ccc6fc2eb06.gif

The London ens.

ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.3a7d6e5dfe69a90c3d96ab0afaac1eb3.gifensemble-ff-london.thumb.gif.fae60bedea28eeccf76db2d8552423ed.gifensemble-rrrcum-london.gif

 

Looking particularly good rising temps,light winds and virtually dry for the the period.Very nice!😎 

Edited by phil nw.
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1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

Some quite dry and warm Summery weather looks likely over the next 10 days quite widely.

A look at the 5 and 10 day ECM mean 500hPa charts shows the jet shifting well north as the Azores high extends across the UK.

 EDM1-120.thumb.gif.10700f203ff0d6d807387eafd2591de2.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.42f9c87a60de12c748492ccc6fc2eb06.gif

The London ens.

ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.3a7d6e5dfe69a90c3d96ab0afaac1eb3.gifensemble-ff-london.thumb.gif.fae60bedea28eeccf76db2d8552423ed.gifensemble-rrrcum-london.gif

 

Looking particularly good rising temps,light winds and virtually dry for the the period.Very nice!😎 

Don't think I've ever seen an ensemble hit the 35C line before - when Heathrow hit 36.7C a few years back the ensemble chart barely got above 30C even at T24 hours - which makes you wonder just how hot some of those ensembles really are!!

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20 hours ago, Alderc said:
1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

Some quite dry and warm Summery weather looks likely over the next 10 days quite widely.

A look at the 5 and 10 day ECM mean 500hPa charts shows the jet shifting well north as the Azores high extends across the UK.

 EDM1-120.thumb.gif.10700f203ff0d6d807387eafd2591de2.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.42f9c87a60de12c748492ccc6fc2eb06.gif

The London ens.

ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.3a7d6e5dfe69a90c3d96ab0afaac1eb3.gifensemble-ff-london.thumb.gif.fae60bedea28eeccf76db2d8552423ed.gifensemble-rrrcum-london.gif

 

Looking particularly good rising temps,light winds and virtually dry for the the period.Very nice!😎 

Summer charts like these are an absolute joy to view. I've lurked on here since '06; my appetite for anticyclonic summer weather was whetted in '03 when high pressure was so stubborn to shift... This current modelling appears to be showing what could be a vintage summer. Hoorah!

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