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Model output discussion 14/04/18

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3 hours ago, 38.5*C said:

Above average rainfall and below average temps for days on the trot isn't "average". 

Well my area has only recorded 5 below average days all month which would have been more than offset by the temps last week. Manchester is always warmer than where I am unless one of us has our own microclimate that is.

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16 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

People on here are downtrodden when we don't get oppressive heat in the summer and perishing cold in the winter. Maybe if you could bring yourselves to be satisfied with "average" conditions in the silly seasons, there'd be far less disappointment.

If we had average conditions in March and the first half of April, maybe people would be satisfied and not require a summer heatwave in April.

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48 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Wow it's so dead in here, roll on winter!:whistling::D

The Gfs 12z is quite amazing in that everything that can go wrong does go wrong, troughs / lows are attracted to the uk like flies to doo-doo and it's very cool at times too..low res shows highs to the w / nw and highs to the e / ne but with trough (s) slap bang over the uk..I'm hopeful this unsettled spell won't last too long and that may will bring a considerable improvement..fingers crossed!:)

Even deader when you have a lot of the naysayers (who seem to be in the majority on this thread at the moment) on your ignore list! Amazing how they take pleasure in other people's misery. This sort of thing doesn't happen in winter on here.

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46 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Wow it's so dead in here, roll on winter!:whistling::D

The Gfs 12z is quite amazing in that everything that can go wrong does go wrong, troughs / lows are attracted to the uk like flies to doo-doo and it's very cool at times too..low res shows highs to the w / nw and highs to the e / ne but with trough (s) slap bang over the uk..I'm hopeful this unsettled spell won't last too long and that may will bring a considerable improvement..fingers crossed!:)

Frosty, was planning coming over to Blighty in early May. Just seen those charts from GFS, think a cancellation in my plans on the cards. Hate cold spring weather and rain. Lovely sunny weather here at the moment and Austria looks likely to remain on the warm side of the trough for much of the forecast model period. Will have to wait later in May to see what brings for you guys.

C

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14 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Frosty, was planning coming over to Blighty in early May. Just seen those charts from GFS, think a cancellation in my plans on the cards. Hate cold spring weather and rain. Lovely sunny weather here at the moment and Austria looks likely to remain on the warm side of the trough for much of the forecast model period. Will have to wait later in May to see what brings for you guys.

C

Very mixed signals from the GEFS 12z with support for unsettled and settled in the mid / longer range, the mean does show signs of improvement further into may so hopefully it won't change your plans to visit the uk next month, maybe just delay it slightly..:)

Edited by Frosty.

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12z ECM has gone back to the idea of higher pressure gradually rising from the SW during the first few days of May

ECMOPEU12_192_1.thumb.png.32462d5abf088f0321c89ea056a77724.pngECMOPEU12_216_1.thumb.png.f48fab7476d0003f4a6b6a185d063413.pngECMOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.85e33ec9afdaa32f499b65351b01cad7.png

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ECM gets there at T240, settled weather taking hold, and a ghostly face with a lopsided grin evident in the output:

ECM1-240.GIF?24-0

Didn't think it would earlier on, still a lot of uncertainty about this one.  Here's the main models T192 just 48 hours earlier:

ECM1-192.GIF?24-0

gem-0-192.png?12

gfs-0-192.png?12

Edited by Mike Poole
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Yes Frosty been monitoring Sunday for a few runs now, GFS last few runs going for all day washout, but other models last few runs okay

EC is good

ECM1-120.GIF?24-0

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44 minutes ago, B87 said:

If we had average conditions in March and the first half of April, maybe people would be satisfied and not require a summer heatwave in April.

You haven't been here very long have you? :closedeyes:

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Wow it's so dead in here, roll on winter!:whistling::D

The Gfs 12z is quite amazing in that everything that can go wrong does go wrong, troughs / lows are attracted to the uk like flies to doo-doo and it's very cool at times too..low res shows highs to the w / nw and highs to the e / ne but with trough (s) slap bang over the uk..I'm hopeful this unsettled spell won't last too long and that may will bring a considerable improvement..fingers crossed!:)

Maybe Frosty......

image.thumb.png.62f96f73ad6b2dd75f98d7ce3618e7f8.pngimage.thumb.png.445757a20c59ace2bf82efc16743f9f9.png

:laugh:

Edited by Purga
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47 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

You haven't been here very long have you? :closedeyes:

What's wrong with having near record heat in April after we had to endure our coldest March day on record, 3rd cloudiest March and dullest first half of April ever?

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29 minutes ago, B87 said:

What's wrong with having near record heat in April after we had to endure our coldest March day on record, 3rd cloudiest March and dullest first half of April ever?

Well I can't speak for London, but imby those conditions are pretty common. We have had several warm marches in recent years too. This march was mainly down to the SSW after all. April can swing either way.

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16 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Well I can't speak for London, but imby those conditions are pretty common. We have had several warm marches in recent years too. This march was mainly down to the SSW after all. April can swing either way.

Heathrow had 3 ice days in a row (2 of which were in March) - the only 2 ice days ever recorded in March! It also recorded a low of -5.1c, the coldest temperature ever recorded in March.  The entire month only managed 70 hours of sun vs the average of 115-120 hrs, and then the first half of April only recorded about 15 hours of sun (April averages almost 170 hours).

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Better news from the Gfs 00z operational with high pressure gradually building in through early may with our weather becoming fine with sunny spells and pleasantly warm temperatures, especially further south..fingers crossed!:)🌞 

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Although the CFS longer term output can be regarded as crude at best, and not much more than pure guesswork at worst, out of interest I have looked at the CFS output through May and it's not all bad news:

1st May    image.thumb.png.b10b5b9c09fb4488f70d5aaf10fc5c50.png    

 5th May   image.thumb.png.cf3972d46ae6ec6b5dfa7635c9591929.png

9th May    image.thumb.png.720689551478634e9f3f52d7979e8b70.png    

13th May  image.thumb.png.395b16836c86b085c07c50470698c98e.png

17th May  image.thumb.png.8ac77deefa70e9ee601f3b116ee94cbe.png

21st May  image.thumb.png.1b71b82ffe7c3afc194fd3f0f61f578b.png

25th May  image.thumb.png.655a58e23395ff42d5d2c94897757f6d.png

29th May  image.thumb.png.b8e50f516bc6f7b03870671d77bc2c10.png

This sequence indicates that there is hope for a warmer, more settled spell mid-month but there is also a lot of influence from North Atlantic low pressure systems moving in from time to time.  It may be a waste of time making plans based on this output but it will be interesting to see how close the reality is, or how badly this model gets it wrong, perhaps?  The U.K. weather remains as unpredictable as ever, so we will probably see a completely different situation evolving by the end of May.....  :rolleyes:

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ECM 00z again going for high-pressure closer by as we go through early May

ECMOPEU00_168_1.thumb.png.a12995267318d76cc783029604b05d74.pngECMOPEU00_192_1.thumb.png.4bd0f02249e244e753d83ed88cef0382.pngECMOPEU00_216_1.thumb.png.f18e639edaaff1ec5ac0e013a2e613bf.pngECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.0ac929c03d4dd212836832252efd2c5e.png

We may get a half decent bank holiday weekend you never know...

 

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1st hints from GFS in a while of some above average temps in places at D7 (And before anyone else says it but not in Darlington :wink:)

ANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.79d12d2a944b8f9065b88bd2f9b6c4b7.png

The overall mean for the next week is below average for the majority a few isolated spots average out around average

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.08d856515582144f20de78587ced044f.png

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Those hoping for a better weather pattern in the next two weeks should perhaps not look at the charts below.

The main feature is of a flow from west or north of west into a pretty persistent upper trough close by or over the UK at times. A fairly consistent pattern being shown by the 3 anomaly charts, both with consistency of each and also with one another over the 6-10 day time frame. Also the NOAA 8-14 has kept a similar looking pattern for several days now.

10 days takes us out to 5 May and the 14 day one is 9 May.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

As soon as a signal with consistency shows any  marked change I will drop the charts in here

Edited by johnholmes
mis spelling of course
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There are definite signs of improvement towards the end of the GEFS 00z mean with high pressure building over scandi and the azores high looking as though it would start ridging in too..may could be a month which gradually brings a return to something more summery!:)🌞

Edited by Frosty.

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1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

Those hoping for a better weather pattern in the next two weeks should perhaps not look at the charts below.

The main feature is of a flow from west or north of west into a pretty persistent upper trough close by or over the UK at times. A fairly consistent pattern being shown by the 3 anomaly charts, both with consistency of each and also with one another over the 6-10 day time frame. Also the NOAA 8-14 has kept a similar looking pattern for several days now.

10 days takes us out to 5 May and the 14 day one is 9 May.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

As soon as a signal with consistency shows any  marked change I will drop the charts in here

The extended GFS/ECM anomalies obviously aren't amazing....but don't look too bad either. Low pressure tending to head back up towards Iceland, so more unsettled in the north, and slightly better in the south. No heatwave, but no washout either.

240-777UK.GIF?25-0

Rainfall for the next 10 days shows the highest totals in the SW, most of which falls on Monday.

Edited by mb018538

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Outlook improves a little at day 8 with some transient ridging however the pattern generally is cyclonic and not especially warm. 

ECMOPEU00_216_1.png

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EC clusters are not particularly hopeful for drier weather - there has a been a shift over the last 36 hours in the positioning of the NW trough, which now gets a lot closer to the UK on most clusters between D8 and D10:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018042500_204.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018042500_240.

However, by D10 we see NE heights potentially establishing, and by D12 there is the hope of those heights influencing the UK again - though plenty of spoilers in there too.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018042500_300.

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5 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Those hoping for a better weather pattern in the next two weeks should perhaps not look at the charts below.

The main feature is of a flow from west or north of west into a pretty persistent upper trough close by or over the UK at times. A fairly consistent pattern being shown by the 3 anomaly charts, both with consistency of each and also with one another over the 6-10 day time frame. Also the NOAA 8-14 has kept a similar looking pattern for several days now.

10 days takes us out to 5 May and the 14 day one is 9 May.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

As soon as a signal with consistency shows any  marked change I will drop the charts in here

Enough to make you weep into your Tetley's cask ale John

:D

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