Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 14/04/18


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
43 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Just trying the new system of downloading files, not sure if it wiull work

It shows the last set of 500 mb anomaly charts for this morning and those for Tuesday just gone.

Showing the comparison and my comments

 

1-net wx 8 june 2018.doc

I was able to download the document if that's what you were wondering

edit - seems to be downloading with completely different name probably a issue on my end

Edited by Gordon Webb
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not quite sure how GFS gets from the AZ high ridging in strongly @ T264, to a howling northerly gale three days later. Anyway never mind that is a fair way off and certainly, and as others have mentioned a bit of a favorable flip towards more settled conditions in the medium term. 

Near term I think stubborn low cloud and clag is again going to be a real nuisance in the next few days before a bit of a south horror show Monday into Tuesday, GFS hinting a max 6-7C below average in places while the NW enjoy more of the same.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Yes 00z runs are an improvement across the board with slightly more influence of the azores high, a real power struggle commencing next week with the Atlantic  and azores high fighting for supremacy ..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Yes 00z runs are an improvement across the board with slightly more influence of the azores high, a real power struggle commencing next week with the Atlantic  and azores high fighting for supremacy ..

Wonder if there might just be a continuation of this remarkable late spring/early summer in NW England, we've had about 5 straight weeks of it now with just the odd cloudier day like today! Certainly a favourable shift this morning with no real prospect of rain in these parts in the next week now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Wonder if there might just be a continuation of this remarkable late spring/early summer in NW England, we've had about 5 straight weeks of it now with just the odd cloudier day like today! Certainly a favourable shift this morning with no real prospect of rain in these parts in the next week now.

Absolutely, the EC and its mean actually do show the jet lifting north by day 10 this morning.

Be interesting to see if this trend continues over the next day or 2..

:)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

Starting to look like the return to more Atlantic based weather later next week may be short lived with the jet trending ever further north again. If the current trend continues we may yet just see a continuation of this settled fine spell except perhaps the far NW. The jet may instead just have the effect of pulling up increasingly warmer conditions from the south around mid month.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
16 hours ago, Singularity said:

h850t850eu.png hgt300.png

 Slight delay to the 'proper westerlies' on this run; a bit more of a ridge ahead of the main Atlantic trough. Only one reasonable day of weather gained though - we can't stave off the inevitable for much longer!

p.s. I'm finding I can't see these attachments after I submit the post, is this the case for others too?

Yep.

I cannot open the pictures

MIA

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Just trying the new system of downloading files, not sure if it wiull work

It shows the last set of 500 mb anomaly charts for this morning and those for Tuesday just gone.

Showing the comparison and my comments

 

1-net wx 8 june 2018.doc

As Gordon reports - above I also cannot access the file.

It will download OK, but then it loses the extension, and I do not seem to have a  product which will display it.

I am on Microsoft Edge, but I have also tried Google Chrome and the same problem occurs.

I use Thunderbird to normally access my Mail is I have had security issues with Email. (ie my .doc file handler).. 

PS - care to check one of your pdf files to see if that is OK.?

It may well be a problem at this end.

Has anyone been able to access and see John's file?. 

MIA

Edit  - at one point I received a message saying that it could be that I did not have access to the file.

Have you 'given access' to the folder in which the file resides?

I had that problem for a while with my data server Dropbox. 

I had to give access to the link and ensure that the folder was also protected to allow access.

 

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Seems like the 06z GFS is showing what I thought would happen a few days ago....

The westerly flow forecast for the early/middle of next week keeps getting nudged further back and further north. The 06z then lets the Scandi high in to keep much of the UK warm and dry.

image.thumb.png.d21f64e1756bfaa9934c62a4d3f3d107.png

Lets hope its on the right path!

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
4 hours ago, Gordon Webb said:

I was able to download the document if that's what you were wondering

edit - seems to be downloading with completely different name probably a issue on my end

Thanks Gordo

When I get some free time I will chat with Paul

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
2 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

As Gordon reports - above I also cannot access the file.

It will download OK, but then it loses the extension, and I do not seem to have a  product which will display it.

I am on Microsoft Edge, but I have also tried Google Chrome and the same problem occurs.

I use Thunderbird to normally access my Mail is I have had security issues with Email. (ie my .doc file handler).. 

PS - care to check one of your pdf files to see if that is OK.?

It may well be a problem at this end.

Has anyone been able to access and see John's file?. 

MIA

Edit  - at one point I received a message saying that it could be that I did not have access to the file.

Have you 'given access' to the folder in which the file resides?

I had that problem for a while with my data server Dropbox. 

I had to give access to the link and ensure that the folder was also protected to allow access.

 

 

Tahnks for that reply, I will contact Paul to see what is the issue.

I run Windows 7 home edition and my word prog is back to 2007 maybe 2004. It may be that. If I get later word messages from anyone it tells me that it will convert it to my old system. Maybe it does not work the other way.

Hopefully it can be sorted.

thanks again

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Seems like the 06z GFS is showing what I thought would happen a few days ago....

The westerly flow forecast for the early/middle of next week keeps getting nudged further back and further north. The 06z then lets the Scandi high in to keep much of the UK warm and dry.

image.thumb.png.d21f64e1756bfaa9934c62a4d3f3d107.png

Lets hope its on the right path!

Might be me but on the chart displayed it is the low west of the UK more dominant than the ridge NE?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Re my post with charts 500mb etc this morning.

What all 3 showed was the upper air in the 6-10 day time frame and on the NOAA 8-15 as Atlantic/trough dominated but with some indication on EC-GFS of 'slight' height rises south of this broadly westerly trough pattern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Just now, johnholmes said:

Might be me but on the chart displayed it is the low west of the UK more dominant than the ridge NE?

Does it show up as the Friday 06z chart for next Friday evening?

My interpretation of it is settled weather across much of the UK on Friday apart from the far NW.

Cooler air tries to make progress across the UK but the cold front coming from the west weakens. The jet blasts through like what it usually does at T240 but the run shows how high pressure to our east is becoming a persistent influence. For true summer heat P11 takes the star prize.

image.thumb.png.8d2f1c78007b263d72159d6d9bf87db8.pngimage.thumb.png.5bcdb146d36b38a6051612c0a0616c58.pngimage.thumb.png.f523ec2bd913e16c3e3a917dae6f8f05.pngimage.thumb.png.7bacc28b97ea9a47f22e054154d041dc.pngimage.thumb.png.45da4bf3abaa4f2b404ac44195d68eea.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A very good end to the Ecm 00z, considerably better than last evenings..might not take long for the azores high to bring back summery weather following the atlantic blip during the second half of next week!:smile:

240_mslp500.png

240_thickuk.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Does it show up as the Friday 06z chart for next Friday evening?

My interpretation of it is settled weather across much of the UK on Friday apart from the far NW.

Cooler air tries to make progress across the UK but the cold front coming from the west weakens. The jet blasts through like what it usually does at T240 but the run shows how high pressure to our east is becoming a persistent influence. For true summer heat P11 takes the star prize.

image.thumb.png.8d2f1c78007b263d72159d6d9bf87db8.pngimage.thumb.png.5bcdb146d36b38a6051612c0a0616c58.pngimage.thumb.png.f523ec2bd913e16c3e3a917dae6f8f05.pngimage.thumb.png.7bacc28b97ea9a47f22e054154d041dc.pngimage.thumb.png.45da4bf3abaa4f2b404ac44195d68eea.png

It is showing as 18z Friday, I guess from what you said in reply that the chart has updated?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

It is showing as 18z Friday, I guess from what you said in reply that the chart has updated?

It illustrates how one run to another, even out at 144+h can be rather different. One reason why I always prefer to compare like with like. So I would keep a copy of the 00z for 144h or whatever and compare it with the latest 144h for the same time?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
5 hours ago, johnholmes said:

It illustrates how one run to another, even out at 144+h can be rather different. One reason why I always prefer to compare like with like. So I would keep a copy of the 00z for 144h or whatever and compare it with the latest 144h for the same time?

Looks like text will be my only way on here, seems I need a pdf file and cannot see how to do this on my pc. Have looked at the how to on google and I don't have what it tells me to do!

any ideas anyone please?

I think I may have found a way, will try it tomorrow pm when I am up and about after a night duty.

Edited by johnholmes
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

A very good end to the Ecm 00z, considerably better than last evenings..might not take long for the azores high to bring back summery weather following the atlantic blip during the second half of next week!:smile:

240_mslp500.png

240_thickuk.png

Very good end, enough is enough now of easterly breezes

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I've been quiet for a while due to problems posting from my iPad, but from looking at earlier model output it seems summer is back on the up! 

First out for the 12s the ICON, want to check how to post GIFs first does the link work (trying to work out what the draconian image uploading rules mean, we're all finding our way on this).

tempresult_gcg5.gif

And does the saved image work, 

image.thumb.jpg.3c89a3ff586f661e634e54fcb5c63749.jpg

Let's upload and see.  

Actually ICON run looks OK, becoming flatter westerly, but no UK trough.

Edit, I was surprised to find that the link to the animated GIF on Meteociel worked but saving it and uploading it didn't. 

Edit 2: sometimes it appears sometimes it doesn't, animation doesn't work though.

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
54 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Check out the first half of the GFS 12z!  The unsettled spell is so innocuous especially in the south, it's just not worth worrying about.  I love this 'return of the westerlies' (I don't think it's going to happen!)

tempresult_wfq8.gif

I think a blip and then summer, summer, summer  

Yes it's noticeable the really unsettled stuff is being delayed and delayed and may not even happen at all..as you say.:smile:

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I'm not sensing a widespread unsettled atlantic spell at all next week, looking at the GEFS 12z mean, it's only really the far NW that becomes unsettled, further s / e shows higher pressure and predominantly fine and warm conditions, further ahead looks even better as the azores high ridges in..

 

 

 

 

21_168_500mb.png

21_216_500mb.png

21_240_500mb.png

21_264_500mb.png

21_288_500mb.png

21_312_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...