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phil nw.

Model output discussion 14/04/18

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40 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Official met office data now the hottest April day since 1949!

Going to be a very close call on 1949 now, London Temps at 28C by 2pm, nothing to stop them rising for another hour and a half

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7 hours ago, Frosty. said:

It could reach 28 to possibly 29c in london today, the Gfs 00z says 26 but I think 27-29 celsius...in any case, a stunning summery blue skies sunny day for many areas and tomorrow could again hit 26 / 27c in the SE and 25-26c on saturday..hope this is just the appetizer for a great summer to come!🌞🌞🌞:)

00_15_uk2mtmp.png

 

 

 

Pathetic Gfs!!!...it has reached 29c 84f in London and it could rise a bit further yet!!:shok::drinks:

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1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

I think today is going to outdo the models, still time to heat up given totally clear sky - that's in Oxfordshire anyway.

Spot on Mike, 29 heading for possibly 29.5 or even 30c 85 / 86f in london this late afternoon, the Gfs has woefully underestimated the maxima yet again..it's a real sizzler in the SE and tomorrow is expected to reach 27c (in the SE) and maybe a little higher!:)🌞...it's a fantastic day across most of england and wales today with temps hitting the mid 20's celsius..perfick:D

Edited by Frosty.

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The Gfs 12z shows the very summery warmth continuing tomorrow further s / se and extending into the weekend, even on sunday across the southeast corner where temps could still reach 23c but there is an increasing risk of heavy showers / thunderstorms during the weekend although next monday looks largely fine and pleasantly warm across southern uk but significantly cooler than currently at 15 / 17c. Thereafter we are all into a more unsettled atlantic spell of low pressure (s) but on this run it doesn't last too long and ends with high pressure building in strongly. :)

12_27_uk2mtmp.png

12_51_uk2mtmp.png

12_75_uk2mtmp.png

12_99_mslp500.png

12_360_mslp500.png

12_384_mslp500.png

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The Gem 12z shows an increasingly unsettled and much colder outlook during next week with some areas struggling to reach 5c at times..compare that to 29.1c today!:shok::cold:

144_mslp500.png

168_uk2mtmp.png

192_uk2mtmp.png

192_mslp500.png

216_mslp500.png

240_uk2mtmp.png

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Good to see tonights ECM at t168 has some support from UKMO - maybe we won't have to wait too long for the next settled spell to arrive

ukm2.2018042612_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.121ce315fc2abed5b832bf87abde0e33.png

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Worth noting that the Arctic heights look to be lowering in general relative to the last couple of months, which improves our chances for seeing at least transitory ridges in between the lows next week onward.

Still a lot of jet meandering going on so could see a wide range of temps - but then that’s very typical of the time of year (just not on the scale we’ve seen these past 7 days!)

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9 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Looks like next week we'll be making our payment for the 2nd hottest April day of all time as we are catapulted right back into the depths of Winter.  http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=275&y=105

Actually though, the GEFS 12z mean doesn't indicate anything wintry, southern uk shows average temps (13-15c) a bit cooler for scotland.

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Exactly frosty....the mean just indicates average temps. 850s of 0-5c are easily double digits this time of year. You’d need sub -10 air now to get something cold and wintry....let’s leave it for 6 months and try again.

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The Gfs 00z shows around 25 / 26c at 3pm for London this afternoon but the max won't be reached until around 4pm when it's expected to reach 27 or 28c so another scorcher for the SE, just a notch down on yesterday. This weekend still very warm further south and especially southeast with temps into the low to mid 20's celsius but an increasing risk of heavy showers / thunderstorms. Looking at next week, temps returning closer to average but still feeling pleasant in the sunshine although there is some spells of rain indicated next week, especially further n / nw along with the coolest temps.:)

00_15_uk2mtmp.png

00_15_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Morning all :)

First, kudos to those who called the heat correctly. I didn't think it would get past 25c in London let alone to near 29c and for all this we can think the SSW and the Beast from the East.

A moment - northern blocking and, more importantly, the trough to the south of the British Isles or over Europe meant warm air funnelled from Africa up over Eastern Europe so the Balkans got an early spring with 22c in Belgrade as early as March 12th. When the set up returned over Easter another warm plume moved up over south eastern and eastern Europe (24c in Belgrade on March 30th). That meant when the synoptics enabled sir to be sourced from the SE said air was unusually warm and with the minimum fetch over the cool North Sea and aided by the strengthening sunshine, we got the record temperatures we have seen.

Without the modification of the Atlantic, more continental-type climactic events are possible and in many of these the transition from winter to spring can, in temperature terms, be rapid. Look at what happens in North America and Siberia as winter eases - huge contrasts in temperature can be experienced even on a daily basis. Worth thinking about IF the Atlantic becomes less influential in our weather and climate.

Back then to the models and some thoughts on where we will be at the end of the month based on the morning output so it's Monday April 30th and starting with ECM 00Z at T+240:

ECM1-240.GIF?20-12

Back to a more normal pattern from next week with our weather coming off the Atlantic. LP to the NW and HP to the SW and by T+240 a broad ridge from the (slightly displaced) Azores HP hints at decent conditions for most while LP is gathering to the west of Iceland and may become more influential as May starts.

GEM 00Z at the same time:

gem-0-240.png?00

A more unsettled evolution. GEM re-orients the Azores HP more to the west and north and that allows the trough to drop SE over the British isles so we end up in a very unsettled pattern with slow-moving LP bringing plenty of rain or showers.

GFS 00Z OP at T+240:

gfs-0-240.png

Once again GFS teases with an E'ly  but it wouldn't take much for the GEM evolution to reach a similar point or even the ECM evolution. GFS has LP to the south west and heights build to the NW from the Azores using the "up and over" approach with the ridge inclining toward Scandinavia. A warm pattern given the air source with showers or perhaps storms for the south but fine further north. Further into FI the easterly pattern continues for southern and eastern parts but then shifts to a NE'ly and introduces a brief much colder air flow.

GFS 00Z Control at the same time:

gens-0-1-240.png

A chilly northerly as the trough edges east and heights try to build in from the west. A more progressive version of the GEM evolution in my view. Further into FI, however, things turn much drier and warmer as a large HP builds over Scandinavia and ridges back SW across southern parts.

The GEFS for 00Z at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

A really mixed bag. Fans of heat can go straight to P10 which would rival if not surpass the current warm spell while fans of cold can go to P11 for their daily fix and while there doesn't appear to be a lot of spread the truth is for our tiny island slight changes in position and orientation of large weather systems can have huge impacts. The only trend I see is no trend. Mean puts LP close by and that's well supported and you can't go far wrong with that as a forecast but I'm struggling to see a clear message even at this range.

In summary, the fine spell is a memory by Monday and next week looks to be more "normal" with a westerly pattern off the Atlantic. From there, the evolutions are varied - both GEM and GFS push LP close to the British Isles, the former has it over us and the latter to the south pulling in a prolonged spell of easterly winds. ECM keeps heights closer but you wonder if the trough at T+240 might not swing SE from its position west of Iceland.

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Will we get more heat the week after next? A toss-up for the SE, unlikely elsewhere, according to the latest ECM clusters

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018042000_216.

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30 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Will we get more heat the week after next? A toss-up for the SE, unlikely elsewhere, according to the latest ECM clusters

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018042000_216.

All hanging on that trough again....if it parks out west we could be back in business. If not, unsettled looks the order of the day. More runs needed!

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Will be interesting to see UKMO t168 - t144 isn't far away for a window of settled weather later next week

UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.565ab3b4ca80fe614a513ccd68598277.png

 

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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Will be interesting to see UKMO t168 - t144 isn't far away for a window of settled weather later next week

UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.565ab3b4ca80fe614a513ccd68598277.png

 

Interesting looks like the ECM is toying with some height rises at T192 as well Gavin hopefully we can get some more nice settled weather soon.

 ECM1-192_ebv4.GIF

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Models aren't handling this small low too well....no idea how it will develop or where it will end up. All showing different outcomes!

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With the consensus next week for a zonal westerly flow, it's interesting to look a little further ahead.  GFS, GEM and ECM at T240:

gfs-0-240.png?12

gem-0-240.png?12

ECM1-240.GIF?20-0

These show quite different weather, but a more amplified jet stream is in evidence across the models.  Increases the possibility in my opinion of the weather blowing hot and cold during late April and early May.  Maybe something for everyone.  

Edited by Mike Poole

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Looking softly worse this morning as the pressure build doesn’t really happen, and we get stuck in the cooler air. Not too unsettled I. The grand scheme, but could be better!

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The end of next week still doesn't look too bad a few showers maybe but no big lows

ECMOPEU00_168_1.thumb.png.27fff531d020ebe0008878849e70008b.pngECMOPEU00_192_1.thumb.png.5561782eb8593893105393179be22686.png

Temps down on this current spell as to be expected but with the strong sun now it would be pleasant enough if it were sunny

Edited by Summer Sun

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2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Looking softly worse this morning as the pressure build doesn’t really happen, and we get stuck in the cooler air. Not too unsettled I. The grand scheme, but could be better!

Indeed. A return to form, for the forseeable. Deck chairs and shorts, packed away! The EPS shows the temp anomaly turning negative as we progress; In addition, and interestingly, the EPS 46 dayer projecting a cooler than average May, UK-wide!

 

 

Unknown.gif

Edited by draztik

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On 14/04/2018 at 13:21, Summer Sun said:

Sensational 06z for warmth

ANOM2m_trend_europe.thumb.png.ebb4d4e8e4ad0b006eab4c0e2e3a40e4.png

😎

 

The trend is not our friend.. quite the difference; (from the 12z GFS)

 

oops.png

Edited by draztik

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