Model output discussion 14/04/18

[mb018538]

Sorry, but I disagree there. To me I don’t see an Azores high building in any time soon - I personally see a disturbance meandering it’s way towards us in the next 5 days, which will eventually lead to a more unsettled spell - though not greatly so - more or less a continuation of the last fortnight....more unsettled in the south, better in the north closer to higher pressure.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes, not great trend, looks like winds from easterly quarter for first half at least of June, sick of them now, today better day without the E'ly

this day looks vile, error maybe? what's with the 13 degrees?

Edited June 2, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[mb018538]

 

Ensembles have also also taken a bit of a nose dive, I think this low has shaken the tree as it were. Turning cooler and more unsettled towards mid month is the trend now.

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Ensembles have also also taken a bit of a nose dive, I think this low has shaken the tree as it were. Turning cooler and more unsettled towards mid month is the trend now.

The 6z mean was  better..I would hang on a bit before you start calling it a trend!

[Djdazzle]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Ensembles have also also taken a bit of a nose dive, I think this low has shaken the tree as it were. Turning cooler and more unsettled towards mid month is the trend now.

If it’s saying the same thing in a few days, I will take notice. Impossible to call it a trend at the moment.

[northwestsnow]

Well lets hope ECM is wrong this evening.. northern blocking and a UK trough.. yuk!!

[Ice Man 85]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The 6z mean was  better..I would hang on a bit before you start calling it a trend!

Means are easily skewed by extreme members one way or the other. Even more so in low res.

[Matthew.]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well lets hope ECM is wrong this evening.. northern blocking and a UK trough.. yuk!!

Only 1 run but looks a recipe for high rainfall with that kind of low over the top

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well lets hope ECM is wrong this evening.. northern blocking and a UK trough.. yuk!!

Would it be so yuk though?..I mean sunshine and heavy, slow moving thundery showers is very interesting weather..in my opinion.

Edited June 2, 2018 by Frosty.

[Matthew.]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Would it be so yuk though?..I mean sunshine and heavy, slow moving thundery showers is very interesting weather..in my opinion.

June 2007 I agree 

[mb018538]

ECM backs up the gfs ensembles....this has come out of nowhere really, a couple of days ago high pressure looked like ruling the roost. Just shows things can and do change at very short notice. Flabby slow moving Low pressure parked over the U.K. is dire, normally what we end up with in the bad summers. Let’s hope it’s just a blip.

[Djdazzle]

ECM 12z is one of the worst summer runs you could ever see. Very unlikely to happen, although it’s a possibility. But it’s a June 2007 repeat!

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM backs up the gfs ensembles....this has come out of nowhere really, a couple of days ago high pressure looked like ruling the roost. Just shows things can and do change at very short notice. Flabby slow moving Low pressure parked over the U.K. is dire, normally what we end up with in the bad summers. Let’s hope it’s just a blip.

Are you just going to ignore the much better looking ukmo 12z run?..we don't know yet  what's going to happen with any confidence!

Edited June 2, 2018 by Frosty.

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM backs up the gfs ensembles....this has come out of nowhere really, a couple of days ago high pressure looked like ruling the roost. Just shows things can and do change at very short notice. Flabby slow moving Low pressure parked over the U.K. is dire, normally what we end up with in the bad summers. Let’s hope it’s just a blip.

You are speaking like it’s a done deal! As you said it’s come out of nowhere.

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Would it be so yuk though?..I mean sunshine and heavy, slow moving thundery showers is very interesting weather..in my opinion.

Frosty, you are the most positive guy on here, and all power to you, but tonight's ECM 12z is a turd that cannot be polished!

It is just awful.  I hope it's a rogue run and will be gone in the morning.

Edited June 2, 2018 by Mike Poole

[I remember Atlantic 252]

14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Would it be so yuk though?..I mean sunshine and heavy, slow moving thundery showers is very interesting weather..in my opinion.

Yes, better than a sea mist easterly, could feel decent in sunshine, chart a bit green snot like though

[Djdazzle]

If that ECM is correct it would be unbelievably unlucky considering where the jet has been running. It would also make a mockery of some of the medium term forecasts showing HP dominant over the UK in June.

[Matthew.]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, better than a sea mist easterly, could feel decent in sunshine, chart a bit green snot like though

Not much wind and high shower risk in between sunshine. What’s not to like. Much more interesting than a flat zonal flow

[Guest]

Not cool model reading this evening. The apparent across the bird switch that fails to rebuild brings in arguable worse conditions than a raging Atlantic. The summer UK trough is arguable the most disappointing setup the U.K. can experience and a pattern that once locked in usually takes a minimum of a couple of weeks to shift!! 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Matthew. said:

Not much wind and high shower risk in between sunshine. What’s not to like. Much more interesting than a flat zonal flow

The problem is it’s just cool, unsettled any drier spells will likely be dominated by infill and very low sunshine totals across the board. 

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Not much wind and high shower risk in between sunshine. What’s not to like. Much more interesting than a flat zonal flow

If you want a June 2007 repeat then I agree, it looks fine.

Ofher than that, it is a truly vile summer run.

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Frosty, you are the most positive guy on here, and all power to you, but tonight's ECM 12z is a turd that cannot be polished!

 

Cheers mike, I try to keep the mood upbeat but you're right of course, I commented on the Ecm before it reached it's dismal conclusion..hopefully it's just a rogue and hopefully the ukmo is right..charts I posted on previous page.

[Derecho]

Evening all

For many its been a prolonged period of above average temperatures which is set to continue in the near term though we are starting to see some agreement on cooler conditions towards the end of the week. This week also looks pretty settled for the most part with one or two cool nights for midweek but some warm days.

The cooler weather unsurprisingly is coming from the west and whilst May is known for its westerly slumber, June can often see them pick back up again.

So it wouldn't surprise me if a fair few of the GFS ensemble members verified.

However one alternative is that the cooler air makes its way down to the bay of Biscay instead, something that happened during the middle of this week, whereas according to the more progressive GFS, the cooler atlantic air was supposed to make inroads but didn't.

The GFS OP kinda goes in this direction with a low to the SW this time next week which has been a familiar pattern in recent times. However this time we have no Scandi high. Cooler air comes from the NE instead bringing in a cool mid June.

The GFS ensemble members are more a case of bog standard westerlies.

A few members do send a low west of Spain/ in Biscay and as a result warm air if wafted up from the south. The UKMO also seems to be heading in this direction so I wouldn't dismiss anything yet... even if this is a later chart something similar to this could pop up sooner

ECM meanwhile is indeed a turd and we may have to go through some cooler Atlantic weather first.

The early part of this month has some similarity to June 1982 I feel

Edited June 2, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[Daniel*]

17 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

If that ECM is correct it would be unbelievably unlucky considering where the jet has been running. It would also make a mockery of some of the medium term forecasts showing HP dominant over the UK in June.

What’s this talk? Models have shown for a few days now of a cooler/wetter interlude nearing mid month. Perhaps this is only gaining momentum, you can’t expect it to be endlessly good esp after that May. 

Edited June 2, 2018 by Daniel*

[Frosty.]

23 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, better than a sea mist easterly, could feel decent in sunshine, chart a bit green snot like though

You make a very good point..anything is better than persistent cool murky north sea filth, at least we would see an end to that.