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Model output discussion 14/04/18

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Still dry and warm for much of the UK at 192 but there is a battle royle looming therafter..

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Still dry and warm for much of the UK at 192 but there is a battle royle looming therafter..

looks great, for a change no easterly winds, normally though the E'lys end around mid June, Jul/Aug usually best months for the SE

ECM1-192.GIF?31-0

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I've seen much worse starts to summer than what the Ecm 12z shows..plenty more summery weather to come according to this..and an eventual end to the cool / murky north sea filth too when we lose the NE'ly / E'ly influence!:smile:

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Edited by Frosty.
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High pressure continues to rule the roost in the reliable. What a remarkable spell this has been!

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7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I've seen much worse starts to summer than what the Ecm 12z shows..plenty more summery weather to come according to this..and an eventual end to the cool / murky north sea filth too when we lose the NE'ly / E'ly influence!:smile:

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I totally agree, I've lurked on here for years and it's this time of year that we seem to be stuck in a rut, the Azores tantalising close at 6/7 days out but a trough parked over us or an active jet bringing low after low off the Atlantic. The jet seems to be enjoying itself way up North this year.... Long may it continue. Regardless of the IMBY weather conditions day to day, I'm loving the warm and sun potential each day brings, and is continuing to do so for the foreseeable...

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Very interesting post above @Tamara. Would be a notable fail by the EC ensembles imo if the Atlantic trough fails to reach Iceland by about 10th June now, such has been the consistency of the signal in the past few days, and eventual Atlantic victory for northern areas at least. I will watch with eagerness :)

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So the sceuro trough was progged to retrogresss west and potentially become east Atlantic based with a W Russian trough edging west into Scandinavia.  I did caution over analysis on this. Whilst we do see a scrussian trough appear next week, it seems that the extended modelling is retreating away from a pattern change with the sceuro ridge re establishing 

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Jetstream profile forecast going for a more normal positioned jet as we move deeper into June. It looks like we will hold onto the rather quiet warm non-atlantic weather for quite a few more days yet, then signs of the trough anchoring its way into western shores, not before a ridge or plume builds through, then the inevitable return of the atlantic. 

The return of the westerlies.. after the spring slumber - all preety normal for the time of year.

 

 

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33 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Jetstream profile forecast going for a more normal positioned jet as we move deeper into June. It looks like we will hold onto the rather quiet warm non-atlantic weather for quite a few more days yet, then signs of the trough anchoring its way into western shores, not before a ridge or plume builds through, then the inevitable return of the atlantic. 

The return of the westerlies.. after the spring slumber - all preety normal for the time of year.

 

 

The slumber seems a lot more pronounced this year maybe due to solar minimum so the return of the Atlantic might be a weak try this summer

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There's been nothing preety normal about this spring, that's for sure and the first 8 / 10 days or so of the meteorological summer continue the generally summery late spring theme with plenty of high pressure / ridging. The computer models then show the jetstream attempting to return to its normal position but I don't think we will see a return to full blown atlantic weather with the jet to the south, I think the jet will stay to the north of scotland with a north /south split being the worst case scenario with at least the southern half of the uk seeing plenty of azores high influence looking deeper into june..time will tell of course but I don't see a preety normal summer unfolding as we go through June at least.

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Early 80`s style weather,not quite more classic thunderstorms then and no low cloud.

The atlantic can stay away for as long as possible thanks,looks like more sunshine this next week,still a slack easterly until about Friday.

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Very late to the models party tonight, I've been in the storms thread! My take on the 12s on average were for a settled period verging towards more standard decent summer fayre for the SE less so NW in about 10 days time.  

But in the more reliable, GFS 18z at T180, this still looks very promising:

gfs-0-180.png?18

As we head into summer does anyone else think the Meteociel jet stream plots look more and more like alien fish in an aquarium? GFS at T150.  

gfs-5-150.png?18

The main one is still massively north, that's a good thing.

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This has to be the highest I’ve ever seen the jet. Amazing. 

 

 

81BEF421-3723-400F-A3B0-F50B956D6E46.png

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9 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Jetstream profile forecast going for a more normal positioned jet as we move deeper into June. It looks like we will hold onto the rather quiet warm non-atlantic weather for quite a few more days yet, then signs of the trough anchoring its way into western shores, not before a ridge or plume builds through, then the inevitable return of the atlantic. 

The return of the westerlies.. after the spring slumber - all preety normal for the time of year.

 

 

wonder when or if?, sick of these easterlies, today another day with sea fog, and an easterly breeze

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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

wonder when or if?, sick of these easterlies, today another day with sea fog, and an easterly breeze

Have to say it’s looking likely the many places will suffer with low cloud, mist and fog into next week, again it’s highly likely pretty good charts could deliver really very disappointing surface conditions. From a IMBY perspective thoUgh easterlies aren’t you usually that bad Bournemouth gets some of the warmest conditions in the country. Still models could be a whole lot worse.

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3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Have to say it’s looking likely the many places will suffer with low cloud, mist and fog into next week, again it’s highly likely pretty good charts could deliver really very disappointing surface conditions. From a IMBY perspective thoUgh easterlies aren’t you usually that bad Bournemouth gets some of the warmest conditions in the country. Still models could be a whole lot worse.

Maybe. Though still a whole lot better than low after low barrelling in from the Atlantic with endless howling winds. If we had these charts in July or August then the North Sea crap wouldn’t be an issue. Often is a problem in May, though.

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Well EC keeps the majority dry and warm out to day 10 this morning, the Atlantic is for sure making a move as we move through next week, GFS shows it getting in whereas EC just about has High pressure fending off the lows.

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21 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well EC keeps the majority dry and warm out to day 10 this morning, the Atlantic is for sure making a move as we move through next week, GFS shows it getting in whereas EC just about has High pressure fending off the lows.

Indeed, and at day 10 the Ecm 00z shows the azores high / ridge looking poised to build back in subsequently.:smile: 

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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23 hours ago, carinthian said:

The UKMO upper air profile (500mb level ) at 144t it status quo. Again ,any convectional energy dissipates in a Northward direction followed by a renewed build of pressure in the north. The prolonged survival of this set up is quite something . Obviously it is a reverse set up to our normal management of heat energy in the summer. In normal circumstances any heat incursion into the British Isles is usually pushed away eastwards by a zonal North Atlantic trough/ flow. I think yesterdays post by @Tamara preludes as to the causes as to why this may not be happening so far in the early summer season as indicated by the chart below and that's the persistent of high pressure ridging to the north ,either with vectors to the west and east . The upper cold pool over Iberia can only help to sent any energy pulses in a NW ly direction ( against most seasonal norms ). Longer term , we may see an attempt by the Atlantic low pressure to move to its usual position in an Iceland direction but in the meantime the status quo persists and if this continues increased heat plumes are more than likely to be a feature of June weather

UW144-21.gif

With regards to the post above , the main models show the status quo out in the reliable time span of 144t. There after, hints of a change, especially the GFS run but ECM chartsonly slowly evolves to a change as described on @knocker todays early morning short term review . Conversely , the Canadian model below shows the persistent of the block out to 240t with continental influence the main player to UK weather condition. Take you pick .Anyway, one more week in blighty to enjoy and hope the cricket team do a bit better.

C

untitled.png

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6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, and at day 10 the Ecm 00z shows the azores high / ridge looking poised to build back in subsequently.:smile: 

240_mslp500.png

Last summer we’d have been crying out for a chart like that:laugh:

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Not much discussion today - I can see why, the charts all look a bit 'meh' to be honest. A bit wishy washy.

ECH1-192.GIF?01-12ECH0-192.GIF?01-12

Low pressure generally up around Iceland and the polar region - which is good for the UK, as it indicates the jet staying to the north. There isn't much of a thermal gradient off the eastern seaboard either (obviously you'd expect this to be decreasing anyway as we head towards summer), which probably means no big lows will be barrelling our way any time soon. Staying slow moving, and probably around or just above average.

 

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Really looks as though next week is starting to look very disappointing for many despite what on the surface of things look like pretty good 500 / 850mb charts. At this time of year with 850's at 10-11c I'd expect in good sunny spells London to be 27-29C with many other parts of E+W hovering around 24-27C, with the exception of Sunday which look like being the best day currently in the next week an easterly feed looks like drawing in huge amount of haar, fret, clag and low cloud from the north sea. I would be surprised if some places down the east coast into East Anglia see almost zero hours of Sun through the working week. Things will be better for those along the south coast west of the IOW, down in the South West and parts of Wales.  

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5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Really looks as though next week is starting to look very disappointing for many despite what on the surface of things look like pretty good 500 / 850mb charts. At this time of year with 850's at 10-11c I'd expect in good sunny spells London to be 27-29C with many other parts of E+W hovering around 24-27C, with the exception of Sunday which look like being the best day currently in the next week an easterly feed looks like drawing in huge amount of haar, fret, clag and low cloud from the north sea. I would be surprised if some places down the east coast into East Anglia see almost zero hours of Sun through the working week. Things will be better for those along the south coast west of the IOW, down in the South West and parts of Wales.  

I think you're being a bit negative, the sun is very strong at this time of year and should either burn the north sea filth back to the east coastal strip or at least punch some holes in any cloud cover that encroaches from the east and not everyone lives near the East coast, I see plenty of summery weather continuing for many areas.

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23 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think you're being a bit negative, the sun is very strong at this time of year and should either burn the north sea filth back to the east coastal strip or at least punch some holes in any cloud cover that encroaches from the east and not everyone lives near the East coast, I see plenty of summery weather continuing for many areas.

I don't disagree, however GFS was pretty good at modelling cloud cover this under similar circumstances so not sure I have much reason to doubt it. The one saving grace might be the airmass won't be quite so moist....we shall see!

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38 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Really looks as though next week is starting to look very disappointing for many despite what on the surface of things look like pretty good 500 / 850mb charts. At this time of year with 850's at 10-11c I'd expect in good sunny spells London to be 27-29C with many other parts of E+W hovering around 24-27C, with the exception of Sunday which look like being the best day currently in the next week an easterly feed looks like drawing in huge amount of haar, fret, clag and low cloud from the north sea. I would be surprised if some places down the east coast into East Anglia see almost zero hours of Sun through the working week. Things will be better for those along the south coast west of the IOW, down in the South West and parts of Wales.  

Can only agree, my location looks very cool/grey most of next week, again the usual setup for late Spring/early summer with NW Scotland getting best weather, latter stages of the EC though looking better

 

 

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