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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean shows the summery pattern continuing well into June, especially further south thanks to the azores high..hope it keeps being extended!

21_264_500mb.png

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21_318_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Cool and Stormy
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands

This coming week isn't that great dispite the large high pressure. Slow moving pattern bringing warm, mostly cloudy and showery conditions. East Wales, W Midlands and the NW will be best. Some parts of the east coast could be cool and full all week. Thundery showers across C S England on most days. Far from perfect weather. Temps 14-25 C. 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
38 minutes ago, shetland islands said:

This coming week isn't that great dispite the large high pressure. Slow moving pattern bringing warm, mostly cloudy and showery conditions. East Wales, W Midlands and the NW will be best. Some parts of the east coast could be cool and full all week. Thundery showers across C S England on most days. Far from perfect weather. Temps 14-25 C. 

I think people are getting a bit spoilt! Think there will still be a good deal of sunshine with the showers well scattered. There will always be winners and losers except in the most unusual setups.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
41 minutes ago, shetland islands said:

This coming week isn't that great dispite the large high pressure. Slow moving pattern bringing warm, mostly cloudy and showery conditions. East Wales, W Midlands and the NW will be best. Some parts of the east coast could be cool and full all week. Thundery showers across C S England on most days. Far from perfect weather. Temps 14-25 C. 

Agree with this, my location is looking very grey due to north sea mist, winds this week look E'ly or NE'ly, very sunless direction here

suppose depends where you live, but these are charts should be after, not Easterlies

gfs-0-276.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Agree with this, my location is looking very grey due to north sea mist, winds this week look E'ly or NE'ly, very sunless direction here

suppose depends where you live, but these are charts should be after, not Easterlies

gfs-0-276.png?6

Not quite as simple as that. 1995 was an Easterly dominated summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
42 minutes ago, shetland islands said:

This coming week isn't that great dispite the large high pressure. Slow moving pattern bringing warm, mostly cloudy and showery conditions. East Wales, W Midlands and the NW will be best. Some parts of the east coast could be cool and full all week. Thundery showers across C S England on most days. Far from perfect weather. Temps 14-25 C. 

Actually eastern areas should lose the low cloud by Thursday, the pattern does look pretty messy with a shallow low parked over the UK for the end of the week. A lot of heavy downpours likely which would be slow moving but in the sunshine it will be very warm and humid.

U48-21UK.GIF?28-18   U72-21UK.GIF?28-18   U96-21UK.GIF?28-18

As you can see, Wednesday still sees an easterly flow but by Thursday and Friday the winds are very light and variable.

On a positive note, maybe there are some signs that the high could realign itself as the jetstream looks like strengthening a little, this could begin to rise heights further to our south in a week or so time.

gfs-0-168.png?12   gfs-0-192.png?12

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Good to see the GFS back firing on all cylinders, here's the 12z, I would say this favours northern parts to start with before the link up with the ridging Azores high towards T192, this has been shown on a number of runs now, passport to summer proper?

tempresult_sre7.gif

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h850t850eu.png ukmaxtemp.png ukprec.png

h850t850eu.png ukmaxtemp.png ukprec.png

If you enjoyed this weekend, then the good news is, it looks increasingly likely that the next one will be a repeat performance!

 

h850t850eu.png ukmaxtemp.png ukprec.png

Beyond that, the trend has been toward more of an Atlantic trough than was being indicated as of yesterday evening. 

At this point it's important to watch out for signs of the trough disrupting against the blocking N or NE of the UK. The ECM 00z gave that a shot and we were given a peek at the kind of very warm flow that could establish as a result;

ecmt850.216.png ecmt850.240.png

 

Historically, this is where we tend to see GFS struggling to resolve things, instead favouring extremely broad troughs that just muscle their way in. It does have parallels with the handling of winter easterlies by the model.

npsh500.png

With hints of some cross-polar ridging that has one end over at least part of Northwest Europe, I feel there's a 'proper' hot spell (widely reaching the high 20s across, say, at least half the UK?) up for grabs should the Atlantic trough fall short of pushing frontal systems through the UK. This being as the cross-polar link can help to sustain the ridge where it locates, and the Atlantic efforts would likely position and orientate the ridge in a manner conducive to drawing up a plume of heat.

That cross-polar component is not being consistently depicted though, so a more standard Atlantic trough + NW Europe ridge pairing may occur instead. This can still produce a good few very warm or hot days, but rarely makes it further than that without some form of breakdown (though this can be only brief before a reload...).

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Good to see the GFS back firing on all cylinders, here's the 12z, I would say this favours northern parts to start with before the link up with the ridging Azores high towards T192, this has been shown on a number of runs now, passport to summer proper?

tempresult_sre7.gif

Yes it continues to look very good, the latest Gfs 12z so far shows temperatures into the low to mid 20's celsius inland on most days, especially the southern half of the uk..the summery spell continues!?️☀️

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes it continues to look very good, the latest Gfs 12z so far shows temperatures into the low to mid 20's celsius inland on most days, especially the southern half of the uk..the summery spell continues!?️☀️

It does indeed look good, and here's the GEM 12z, again fine and settled north, potential for storms in the south, and converging on a more nationwide settled hot spell by T240:

tempresult_frz2.gif

Keep rolling on summer 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
30 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Agree with this, my location is looking very grey due to north sea mist, winds this week look E'ly or NE'ly, very sunless direction here

suppose depends where you live, but these are charts should be after, not Easterlies

gfs-0-276.png?6

Indeed, seems some people are just seeing high pressure on the charts and foolishly assuming that it's going to be nice and sunny, but for the next few days that doesn't look to be the case away from north western areas. Lots of cloud around that will stick around all day, maybe even a bit of drizzle too. I'm afraid to say that isn't my definition of summery weather.

Personally I'm looking for a change in the position of the high so the easterly wind is cut off.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 minutes ago, cheese said:

Indeed, seems some people are just seeing high pressure on the charts and foolishly assuming that it's going to be nice and sunny, but for the next few days that doesn't look to be the case away from north western areas. Lots of cloud around that will stick around all day, maybe even a bit of drizzle too. I'm afraid to say that isn't my definition of summery weather.

True that some are being over optimistic. But then again you are giving the worst case scenario!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

It does indeed look good, and here's the GEM 12z, again fine and settled north, potential for storms in the south, and converging on a more nationwide settled hot spell by T240:

tempresult_frz2.gif

Keep rolling on summer 

Agreed, I don't understand the negativity, I can't remember a better late spring than this..another cracking BH Monday too! and it's set to carry on into early summer too..bring it on!:D☀️?️⛈️

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

True that some are being over optimistic. But then again you are giving the worst case scenario!

The forecast for here shows cloud on every day this week so I think I'm being pretty realistic actually. Even by normal standards that's not good.

As I said, the easterly drift needs cutting off asap. 

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
6 minutes ago, cheese said:

The forecast for here shows cloud on every day this week so I think I'm being pretty realistic actually. Even by normal standards that's not good.

As I said, the easterly drift needs cutting off asap. 

here too, even rain on some days

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Those of you who like Atlantic driven rain and wind and general rubbish weather look away now ☀️, the GEFS mean at T252, and if this doesn't sum up the recent output nothing will!  

gens-21-1-252.png?12

(I've tried 3 times to link to the correct chart, but something isn't working, but if you click the chart it does take you to the right one!)

And the GFS 12z at the end of the run, yes I know it's unlikely,but it's a peach(yes I know that's an orange! I struggle with emojis )

gfs-0-384.png?12

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z operational is another predominantly summery run, at least across england and wales with this being the happy ending!☀️:D

12_384_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
2 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

Using computer apps folks, never rely on them as gospel.

Even adding that caveat it's pretty obvious that low cloud is going to be a problem for most of us this coming week.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..
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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds
2 hours ago, cheese said:

Even adding that caveat it's pretty obvious that low cloud is going to be a problem for most of us this coming week.

Its been the best May in living memory and the odd cloudy day seems to be a problem for some..Its been amazingly good again today. Its felt more like early August  than Late mate + considering we spend entire summers under cloud.. a couple of cloudy days  (if it happens) coming up  won't be the end of the world stuff.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..
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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
38 minutes ago, cheese said:

As I said, the easterly drift needs cutting off asap. 

Agreed. Hopefully it'll have a breakdown before I do. I'd even take a UK high over this.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 hours ago, cheese said:

Even adding that caveat it's pretty obvious that low cloud is going to be a problem for most of us this coming week. 

It’s good to paint a balanced picture. The modelled pattern is quite complex and of course there will be winners and losers.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
3 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

Its been the best May in living memory and the odd cloudy day seems to be a problem for some..Its been amazingly good again today. Its felt more like early August  than Late mate + considering we spend entire summers under cloud.. a couple of cloudy days  (if it happens) coming up  won't be the end of the world stuff.

No offence, but your 'living memory' is about as reliable as a chocolate tea pot. 

It's been an excellent May all things considered (certainly not the best in living memory), but that doesn't mean I won't complain about poor weather when it does occur, even if it's against a backdrop of generally nice weather.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Speaking of great..the GEFS 12z mean well into june!:D

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21_240_500mb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

On other aspects, who thinks these two highs are going to merge on the ECM 12z, T168?

ECM1-168.GIF?28-0

Edited by Mike Poole
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