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Model output discussion 14/04/18


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We still believe, we still believe… We still believe, we still believe… It's coming home, it's coming home It's coming, summers coming home It's coming home, it's coming home

I try no to let preferences influence my thinking in terms of the weather patterns, and attempt to suggest pros and cons for whatever realistic possibilities are ahead. Its not always easy! But s

Errrr.... who correctly forecast this settled spell weeks ago? It was @Tamara

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June has to be my favorite month. Longest days, potential for warm to very warm weather and strong sun. A warm sunny late afternoon in June is just heavenly. 

Think this year we will have a few. 

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Sensational 18z with some very impressive temps esp across the SE - 30 deg to usher in June !!

I'm still a bit fearful of retrogression and a UK trough longer term but the latest NWP has trended away from that scenario.

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7 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Sensational 18z with some very impressive temps esp across the SE - 30 deg to usher in June !!

I'm still a bit fearful of retrogression and a UK trough longer term but the latest NWP has trended away from that scenario.

Friday though still only 13° max, surely GFS wrong there

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6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Friday though still only 13° max, surely GFS wrong there

But its really a pebble in an ocean ? ie a sea of warm weather and warm temperatures, GFS/ECM look in the main warm to very warm, i'm not fussed about the odd poor day, its usually the other way round . :)

UKMO not out this morning on wetter..

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11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Friday though still only 13° max, surely GFS wrong there

Early June looks cold on the Gfs 00z too!:cold-emoji:

00_324_uk2mtmp.png

00_348_uk2mtmp.png

00_372_uk2mtmp.png

00_348_mslp850.png

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Ironically Ukmo is probably the worst of the big three this morning for heat - gfs and ecm have this firmly in place by 144, Ukmo has a sliver of warm air into the far sw, but the bulk of the heat stays away. Still all to play for.

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3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Early June looks cold on the Gfs 00z too!:cold-emoji:

 

 

EPS 46 dayer continues to  suggest a below average/average month on the whole. Then again, it's fast becoming cannon fodder much like the CFS - so expect a heatwave. 

Edited by draztik
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This morning's GFS parallel is absolutely bonkers.

Firstly, on Sunday it gets 18C uppers to the south coast. Don't think I've seen anything near that in May before. The May temperature record would be in tatters if that happened + full sun (probably 33C/34C):

gfs-1-138.png

Uppers then stay above 12C for most throughout the half-term week. This chart is 7 days after the one above. Still probably pushing 30C.

gfs-1-288.png

A 24 hour break from the heat during the week after, then the heat comes back for England:

gfs-1-384.png

It all seems very unlikely, of course. Maybe GFS still need to give this new model a few tweaks!

 

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13 minutes ago, draztik said:

EPS 46 dayer continues to  suggest a below average/average month on the whole. Then again, it's fast becoming cannon fodder much like the CFS - so expect a heatwave. 

You never know given the 46 dayer at the end of April showed a below average May and we are currently running 1.5c above average

49b72f2f-3737-4ca9-95bf-e61ec7350a8b.thumb.png.1f39b8d79cc30191a31c4b06c569aabb.png

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EC clusters - only 1 cluster after T168 which sometimes is due to a lack of enough clarity in the ensembles to produce clusters (I believe).

However, flicking through weather.us, I would say by D12 there's about a 70/30 split, with 70% of runs remaining warm (Uppers above 10C somewhere in the UK) and 30% having lost the warmth. Retrogression is still in the picture post D10 but it is not the dominant theme - a continuation of the present pattern is the still the best represented idea.

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We all know GFS likes to over do DP's however its consistently producing 21-23C (which is staggeringly humid for the UK) over the Central south and SW through the weekend into early next week, even with a notable moderation to reality I would think 17-20C is possible which really is exceptional at any time of the year let alone the end of May and an indication of a huge amount of fuel available to tap into given enough sunshine.

One thing many around the coast will have to deal with is fog over this period, there could be some huge local variations with some places trapped at 12-14C while 20miles inland it could 25-30C.

But overall the dreamy model output continues.....

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14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

You never know given the 46 dayer at the end of April showed a below average May and we are currently running 1.5c above average

49b72f2f-3737-4ca9-95bf-e61ec7350a8b.thumb.png.1f39b8d79cc30191a31c4b06c569aabb.png

Thanks for making my point.

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4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018052206/132-582UK.GIF?22-6

The
6z only has a max of 24c on Sunday with uppers at 15/16c in the south. I find that VERY hard to believe.....

Only 24c!...lol it's not even summer yet:whistling:

Anyway, the Gfs 6z has a very summery look to it almost until the end of the run which takes us into early summer ?

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I'm with the Euro 40+ day model in terms of a break in early June at least, Pacific trades have begun to surge which will add westerly momentum. 

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

With regards to the short term and the question of how warm, pressure is sub 1020mb over the south so my guess is that the GFS is expecting some cloud or possible showers caused by enhanced instability. 

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Morning all :)

Some thundery outbreaks in the south yesterday and it remains to be seen if we get more today in this part of the world.

Looking ahead. the medium term analysis this morning takes us out to Friday June 1st:

ECM 00Z at T+240:

ECM1-240.GIF?22-12

A big change from yesterday and more akin to what the GFS models were showing. After a very warm end to the Bank Holiday weekend, the HP declines ESE and the core of the European trough shifts NE into central Europe allowing a ridge to build NE from the Azores HP. Fine conditions for many but a cooler NE'ly breeze for southern and eastern parts and a residual risk of showers.

GEM 00Z at the same time:

gem-0-240.png?00

A very decent outlook for those wanting fine and settled conditions. Both the HP and LP from the coming weekend decline into next week as a new ridge builds NE from the Azores HP to the west of the British Isles with a new HP cell setting up to the north of Scotland. Fine conditions for most with a very light E'ly flow and perhaps only residual sea fog and mist to eastern and southern counties to consider.

GFS 00Z OP at the same time:

gfs-0-240.png

Not too far removed from the GEM/ECM solutions in all honesty. The ridge ends up to the north of the British isles with a very shallow trough covering much of Europe. Perhaps a greater risk of showers for the south but overall fine. Further into FI the HP builds to the NW and there's a strong signal for something much cooler as the wind swings more NE as pressure falls over Europe and the risk of rain for southern and eastern parts increases.

GFS 00Z Parallel at T+240:

gfs-0-240.png

Not too far removed from the OP in truth. Further into FI, the Parallel builds heights more to the east or north east and a static pattern develops which keeps the British Isles warm or very warm with the greatest risk of rain or showers for western areas.

GFS 00Z Control at T+240:

gens-0-1-240.png

Close to the OP again.

In summary, there's much more agreement across the models today into the medium term. After the warmth of the coming Bank Holiday weekend, both the HP and LP systems responsible will decline as a new ridge is thrown NE from the Azores to the west and north of the British Isles. A new easterly sets up but it's generally fine for most although the threat of rain or showers for southern counties increases with time. 

 

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21 hours ago, carinthian said:

Yes, what a fantastic post by my Sussex Girl neighbour Tamara. Certainly take what we have now and enjoy. What wonderful weather here in Cheshire. Just timed my Blighty break at the right time. Must be 23c and the Cheshire countryside looks stunning and ever so green.Pint or two this evening in one of my old watering Holes, the lovely "The Bells of Peover " pub ( below ).

C

IMG_1769.jpg

Another fantastic day in Cheshire. Had plans for a visit to the East Riding this weekend but those NEly scare me to death over there. Have bad memories of playing cricket in the Wold villages in May wearing 3 pullovers to keep warm. Love the countryside but those winds forecast from the North Sea are making think again . So may stick in the sun struck NW for the rest of the week and then a return back to good old Sussex this weekend.

C

GFSOPUK06_102_5.png

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More very good news, the GEFS 6z mean is very summery throughout with no sign of cool atlantic dross returning this month..or indeed early in June either!? 

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43 minutes ago, Isabellesnanny said:

Can anyone give me a rough idea of what the models are predicting for this coming Saturday, my daughter is getting married in Newmarket and so far haven't seen 2 forecasts that even agree with each other.

South east and East Anglia will be warm/very warm with temps in the range 23-25C perhaps. Storm potential in the evening but that threat appears to lie further west. The 6Z for example:

108-505.GIF?22-6

Looks perfect for a wedding. Congratulations.?

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12z trundling out....Ukmo for the second run in a row keeps the really high uppers away in the near continent. Gfs bullish in bringing very hot air in again. All to play for!

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9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

00z UKMO again showing high pressure dominating for most

UKMOPEU00_96_1.thumb.png.7b5742f44bce50f6d3ca6d6e536f46dd.pngUKMOPEU00_120_1.thumb.png.dd1af389a4f9fa0750bc056b07f85caf.pngUKMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.038ca8b20dad3c46ef1c07c0acdba2b5.png

Ditto the Ukmo 12z..looks very blocked and pleasant under high pressure influence to the NE, lower heights across France with an ongoing risk of thundery showers, mainly for the south but for most of the uk it looks largely fine with plenty of warm / very warm sunshine.☀️:)

UKMOPEU12_72_1.png

UKMOPEU12_96_1.png

UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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