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phil nw.

Model output discussion 14/04/18

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Cracking ecm - warm air hanging around all week, temps Into the mid twenties, and the chance of some hefty storms in places if that floats your boat. Lovely stuff!

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

ECMupgrading the high this evening on the 12z

ECMOPEU12_168_1.thumb.png.9b192e6d6441c1fe62a9d17fb62196da.pngECMOPEU12_192_1.thumb.png.7d57fbace57ffb4cc42179902abbced8.pngECMOPEU12_216_1.thumb.png.92d290552185ccc1d7a4811cf91b5181.png

 

 

It's the stuff of dreams for an avid warm sunny summer lover. To think most years a small ridge  of HP here and there is a treat out in FI.... Long may it continue 😍

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Here we go again. Just had to pinch myself to make sure I wasn’t dreaming:D what a speechless run:)

492B36F9-06B8-493E-A615-F8F19EA5A007.jpeg

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Great output from the ECM tonight, I've been holding back until the rest of the end of the run here at t240:

tempresult_nec9.gif

One run,  but  a significant run,

Edited by Mike Poole
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Just now, Mike Poole said:

Great output from the ECM tonight, I've been holding back until the rest of end of the run here at t240:

tempresult_nec9.gif

One run,  but  a significant run,

Indeed. This model truly has been utterly woeful recently! The verification stats may paint a different story, but for our parts it has just been dire. 

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Really happy with what the Ecm 12z is showing this evening..even more happy if it verifies, plenty of summery weather on these charts..nationwide..with power to add beyond T+240 hours!🌞😎

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240_mslp500.png

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Evening All! What some great weather coming up ! This weekends weather is just perfect for the FA Cup and of course the Royal wedding. Looks extremely blocked the weather pattern at the moment, but pressure falling for southern Britain early next week allowing for some slow moving thunderstorms....Watch this space....📺

tuesday.png

tuesdayx.png

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A brief summary from me about tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean which, in a nutshell looks...summery😎👍

ECMAVGEU12_48_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_72_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_96_1.png

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ECMAVGEU12_144_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_168_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

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9 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Great output from the ECM tonight, I've been holding back until the rest of the end of the run here at t240:

tempresult_nec9.gif

One run,  but  a significant run,

My apologies to everyone, I seem to have inadvertently posted the T0 chart from the ECM in the post above.  Here's the actual T240:

ECM1-240.GIF?18-0

In rude health, you might say.😉

Moving on, here's the UKMO 0z at T144:

UW144-21.GIF?19-06

Peachy!  And GFS at T180:

gfs-0-180.png

Just a thought, is 2018 going down as the year of the easterly?

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Not quite sure why I'm awake at this time in the morning, but take a look at the GEM 0z:

tempresult_iig7.gif

And GFS T204, a 1040 high, at this time of year?  Looks a bit like a flat fish too.

gfs-0-204.png

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AS others have said, I cannot remember seeing the jet that high before. It’s quite astonishing. 

Really early to say and I don’t want to jinx it, but I really think this summer will be a good one. 

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Looks good, for once the trough is truly parked off Greenland and well out of the way to the west. Still lots of options on the table this morning, position of the high will be crucial. I like the ecm a lot though.

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More great output this morning! ECM on board now with the warmth lasting the whole week. The only question is now how much in the way of thunderstorms will there be?

Comparing the Cape levels of the GFS and ECM (available from weather.us)

  GFS ECM
Today Minimal None
Sunday Minimal None
Monday Moderate Light
Tuesday Light Moderate
Wednesday Light Moderate
Thursday  High Moderate
Friday Very high Light

GFS tends to overestimate Cape and has backtracked from the really high values we saw forecast for Tuesday. However Midweek ECM sees pockets of quite decent CAPE around midweek so there could be a helping of storms, mainly across eastern and southern areas of the UK.

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The lack of energy in the Atlantic is quite something to behold on this mornings charts! Not sure I've ever seen it so blocked in summer. 

Now you know me, not one to ramp ;) but it is pattern like this which is step 1 towards a 1976 style period. It can only happen with total Atlantic shut out. Step 2 would be to get the high oriented in a way to give a continental drift rather than Scandi/Baltic. Step 3 = lock-in. We aren't quite at step 2. But not impossible, and step 3 could follow!! 

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ECM ensemble mean from the 0z run, 1030 over the UK on a mean chart at T192 is a very strong signal for fantastic weather.  And it still isn't actually summer!

Edit, tried to post animation but didn't work, here's the T192 mean chart:

EDM1-192.GIF?19-12

Edited by Mike Poole
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40 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The lack of energy in the Atlantic is quite something to behold on this mornings charts! Not sure I've ever seen it so blocked in summer. 

Now you know me, not one to ramp ;) but it is pattern like this which is step 1 towards a 1976 style period. It can only happen with total Atlantic shut out. Step 2 would be to get the high oriented in a way to give a continental drift rather than Scandi/Baltic. Step 3 = lock-in. We aren't quite at step 2. But not impossible, and step 3 could follow!! 

Yes MWB, the persistent sceuro upper ridge has been the story thus far and the pretty decent may we have had was well forecast on the back of this. not convinced that this sustains going forward into June with the pattern seeming to edge further west. Analysis of that can wait until it firms up 

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Here's the first half of the GFS 6z (the half that counts!) and the Scandi high is impressive:

tempresult_rve9.gif

And the heat from the south is only getting closer, largely driven by that low camped out west of Spain. T192:

gfs-1-192.png?6

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06z is even better if its warm weather you are after! Fine weekend isn't it? shame I don't feel 100% but this certainly reminds me of a weekend in April 2011. Seemed to be gloriously warm and sunny then too. Must be all that geo-engineering to try and keep the clouds away for the royal wedding 🤣.

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Hands up who thinks we end up here going into summer? (T384):

gfs-0-384.png?6

I don't think so.  GFS a joke in the low res.  The business end of the run was fantastic though.

Edited by Mike Poole

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2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

few GFS runs now, and bbc give a vile day for this Thursday? thought it was looking fine?

ukprec.png

That's from overnight thunderstorms moving NW'wards so nothing too bad, just some intense rainfall bursts for one or two areas perhaps as they push though.

Still looks good for more northern areas, plenty of sunshine to be had and warm too, though uncertainty about the extent and intensity of the storms.

How often do we get storms imported from Belgium and Holland? Makes a change from France.

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5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

That's from overnight thunderstorms moving NW'wards so nothing too bad, just some intense rainfall bursts for one or two areas perhaps as they push though.

Still looks good for more northern areas, plenty of sunshine to be had and warm too, though uncertainty about the extent and intensity of the storms.

How often do we get storms imported from Belgium and Holland? Makes a change from France.

Absolutely.. who minds a storm or two when we are in a protracted spell of gorgeous warm weather..

Models continue to look superb again today right out to the end of may.. and what  a may we are having.

 

Edited by northwestsnow

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolutely.. who minds a storm or two when we are in a protracted spell of gorgeous warm weather..

 

Indeed, I find it also weird with the potential for thunderstorm's not heralding a breakdown. Very much breaks with tradition here in the UK. 

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