Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Mike Poole]

GEM late to the party today, but here it is in its entirety: 

Its the picture we've been seeing for a while now, with repeated areas of high pressure over the UK as the systems move SW to NE with slightly less settled conditions interspersed.  But this run seems to end with a very continental outlook, optimism for summer good, and increasing the more models I look at.

Edited May 15, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

optimism for summer good, and increasing the more models I look at.

Fully agree, based on what most of the models have showed today..and recently with the scandi  / azores high link up looking a good bet right now..signs are very good.

Edited May 15, 2018 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Very good Ecm 12z with high pressure / strong ridging dominating most of the uk with just the far NW very occasionally being a tad more unsettled / breezy...for most it's looking very pleasant  with largely dry and warm conditions with variable cloud and good spells of sunshine.

[Summer Sun]

Really nice 12z ECM high pressure dominates & very pleasant temps

Long may it continue

 

[Mike Poole]

45 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Fully agree, based on what most of the models have showed today..and recently with the scandi  / azores high link up looking a good bet right now..signs are very good.

Yes, I'm finding this a really interesting period of model watching because I only started in 2011, so I don't really know what to look for as indicators of a super summer because we haven't really had one, yes obviously we've had hot spells, but still. What I do know is the current charts offered by the models look very different to  those I can recollect for this time of year from previous years.  If you take the current model output, plus the long term GloSea5 it does seem to be boding well, can't say more than that.  ECM at T240 floats my boat:

Edited May 15, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Singularity]

Brilliant from Tamara as always 

The modelling as a whole is shouting for the low momentum situation to lock-in for quite some time with some impressive positive GPH anomalies afoot, but if you look at the latest CFSv2 weekly maps, you can see some suggestion of a retrogressive tendency as we go into June.



On the other hand, the long-range modelling in general indicates settled conditions to predominate this summer with below average rainfall and ridges tending to locate to our N and NE. Partly this appears influenced by the huge deficit in Arctic sea ice to the north of Scandinavia, but I expect some push of the atmosphere away from the La Nina imprint is also being developed behind the scenes. 

I personally believe that if the atmosphere fully breaks free and heads into weakly positive NINO territory by late June or early July, we'll be unlucky not to see a summer to rival some of the all-time greats. Last year did however demonstrate that the atmosphere is capable of hanging on to a La Nina imprint even with the SST anomalies venturing away from a La Nina pattern, as Tamara has very rightly reminded us.

So it feels like we're being given a second shot at achieving what we almost did last summer.  I too am pleased that we are in such a position .

[LightningLover]

Sorry @ajpoolshark, It wasn't a great first post from me in the model thread, I know. Anyway, I'm really liking the look of the ECM 00z output!

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Sorry @ajpoolshark,

 

I'm really liking the look of the ECM 00z output!

The 12z wasn't bad either

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

ECM 12z very nice but not as warm as the 00z but still dry and pleasant along with Azores and Scandi fighting it out for the UK.

Fingers crossed it will continue with a good strong link up between the two because blocking like this can last well into September but I do have a gut feeling it will all go down the pan come June,  Late May 2012 is an example of brilliant early summertime sypnotics being snatched away from under our noses.    .  

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensemble mean looks really good at T240, that high pressure nosing in, I think a prolonged settled period is likely:

Further support for a decent early summer, where we go thereafter needs more runs.

Edited May 15, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM ensemble mean looks really good at T240, that nosing in I think a prolonged settled period is likely:

Further support for a decent early summer, where we go thereafter needs more runs.

Very much like the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, hopefully a recurring pattern for the next four months or so!

[A.J]

50 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Sorry @ajpoolshark, It wasn't a great first post from me in the model thread, I know. Anyway, I'm really liking the look of the ECM 00z output!

lol...it's all good....just teasing..................well done on breaking your cherry in the model thread, many don't!............yup, the overnights and 12z outputs are encouraging.....not blazing heat, but it'll feel nice.....heat and plumes will come later no doubt

[Frosty.]

Really nice 12z Ecm ensemble mean, high pressure / ridging dominates with generally very pleasant temps which would / will feel even warmer during prolonged spells of mid / late May sunshine.. the blocking high to the E/NE  does a great job of holding the atlantic at bay and then a very good finish with the azores high building in strongly

[damianslaw]

A quiet outlook, with little in the way of unsettled weather - in a word 'dry' - not unusual for May though, this is as I keep saying the time of year when the atlantic is in slumber and we are far more likely to see sustained dry conditions, indeed a predominantly wet unsettled outlook is more unusual. 

Not much to discuss, high pressure ridging through the UK, could be some stubborn cloud though as it has an atlantic cool source, and it doesn't look like we will inject any continental influence into it for some time at least keeping temps near average, no significant heat in the offing, but under clear skies and sunshine and light winds by mid May it always feels much warmer than the temps suggest, indeed the sun is more powerful now than in late July - even though that is when we see yearly average means reach their peak.

The current synoptics on offer at the kind of synoptics that have given rise to some of the classic summers of years gone by, the azores-scandi high link up with the jet tracking far to the north, it can be a recurring stuck pattern - but, seeing such conditions in mid May by no means they will last for the next 3 months, the summer rarely settles into its groove until late June, and its then you want to see such synoptics occur (think 1995), as there is often a tendancy for a switch to occur around then, the base state flips and settles in for the summer haul.. 

 

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, 38.5*C said:

ECM 12z very nice but not as warm as the 00z but still dry and pleasant along with Azores and Scandi fighting it out for the UK.

Fingers crossed it will continue with a good strong link up between the two because blocking like this can last well into September but I do have a gut feeling it will all go down the pan come June,  Late May 2012 is an example of brilliant early summertime sypnotics being snatched away from under our noses.    .  

True but keep in mind that April and the first two thirds of May 2012 were unsettled, so that spell was essentially a prolonged break in the broader unsettled pattern that just came back in June. This year seems quite different.

[damianslaw]

12 minutes ago, MP-R said:

True but keep in mind that April and the first two thirds of May 2012 were unsettled, so that spell was essentially a prolonged break in the broader unsettled pattern that just came back in June. This year seems quite different.

Indeed we are in a different base state than were this time in 2012, indeed we are if anything in a very similiar state to where we were in 2016 and 2017 - last 2 summers were half decent at least with some decent warmth at times. I'm not expecting a washout summer like 2012 - it was a  real shocker!

[Frosty.]

Another very nice Ecm run this morning, the 00z shows plenty of pleasant warmth, high pressure / strong ridging for most of the uk, just a tad more unsettled from time to time across the far NW but for the majority it's looking good and high pressure is centred over the uk at day 10.

Ps..most of the Gfs 00z looks very nice too

Edited May 16, 2018 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Another cracker from UKMO with high pressure always close by

Would be brilliant if this pattern can hold on through summer. After a long winter, I see no reason why we can't get a long summer

[Frosty.]

58 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Another very nice Ecm run this morning, the 00z shows plenty of pleasant warmth, high pressure / strong ridging for most of the uk, just a tad more unsettled from time to time across the far NW but for the majority it's looking good and high pressure is centred over the uk at day 10.

 

 

Actually I forgot to mention the Ecm 00z is not only a run dominated by high pressure and pleasant surface conditions, it's also very warm / humid at times further s / se with some continental influence which brings a risk of a few thunderstorms for a time so it's really a more summery late spring pattern as we approach the start of the meteorological summer..already it feels like we've had plenty of summer, hopefully will set the tone for the next four months!

Edited May 16, 2018 by Frosty.

[carinthian]

On ‎15‎/‎05‎/‎2018 at 08:18, carinthian said:

Just refer to this post sent a week ago. Snowfall forecast spot on. Snow settling this morning at 1800m just above the village. Temp presently 2c on balcony. Horrrible. Trip to sunny Blighty now defo back on the cards . Will start looking for flights this morning. Our forecast team seem to back a strong Scandinavian high in the medium forecast period ( along UKMO ) latest model charts , which I think will be good for most of the British Isles, especially west and north and maybe not so good for parts of continental Europe with SE England on the periphery . Try and get some photos of the snow later but just to much low cloud in the village at the moment to venture out..

C

Horrible day yesterday. Cloud cleared this morning. Picture of our local mountain with snow cover down to 1800m or so. Reports of a substantial snowfall in the local mountains at 2500m and above. Back in the UK this weekend for a bit of cricket watching and real ale search for a week or two. Just looked at our medium forecast charts and nice for much of the UK over the weekend and beyond , especially the West and North. Hints at some sort of convective low or trough development over  France that may affect SE England earlier next week but that's a long way off but worth watching.

C

[Man With Beard]

Pretty solid on the EC ensembles for the last week in May. Just one cluster for D10 - given what comes before and after, I'm guessing this represents unity rather than disunity! It suggests yet more of the ongoing Atlantic shut-out with a good easterly influence and little rain.

By D12, two clusters - it's either more settled weather over the whole of the UK, or just mostly settled with the north most at risk of occasional Atlantic incursions:

Is this going to be our summer?

[Frosty.]

Another very nice Ecm ensemble mean, the 00z indicates predominantly fine warm weather for most of the uk during the next ten days and very good royal wedding weather for saturday too when temps are currently expected to be around 21c 70f.

[johnholmes]

4 hours ago, carinthian said:

Horrible day yesterday. Cloud cleared this morning. Picture of our local mountain with snow cover down to 1800m or so. Reports of a substantial snowfall in the local mountains at 2500m and above. Back in the UK this weekend for a bit of cricket watching and real ale search for a week or two. Just looked at our medium forecast charts and nice for much of the UK over the weekend and beyond , especially the West and North. Hints at some sort of convective low or trough development over  France that may affect SE England earlier next week but that's a long way off but worth watching.

C

It needs to be better than today!

Just posted in the weather for today thread

What a difference a day makes

No sun, brisk nasty Northerly breeze and at 1230 today was 11.6 C colder than yesterday !

11.8 C compared to cloudless, no breeze and 23.4 C 24 hours ago!

[carinthian]

49 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

It needs to be better than today!

Just posted in the weather for today thread

What a difference a day makes

No sun, brisk nasty Northerly breeze and at 1230 today was 11.6 C colder than yesterday !

11.8 C compared to cloudless, no breeze and 23.4 C 24 hours ago!

You will be basking in sunshine tomorrow John Boy. Fed up with the cold and cloud over here . Looking forward to some of that nice warm sunshine back in Sussex this weekend. I might be tempted to venture up north looking at those forecast charts.

 C

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

You will be basking in sunshine tomorrow John Boy. Fed up with the cold and cloud over here . Looking forward to some of that nice warm sunshine back in Sussex this weekend. I might be tempted to venture up north looking at those forecast charts.

 C

Ay so the old team say but not 24 C, still should be ok to do a bit of gentle weeding though with lots of rests!