Model output discussion 14/04/18

[Weathizard]

That little low around day 5/6 is weakening every it seems.

 

High pressure to our SW flexing its sizeable muscles

Edited May 10, 2018 by Weathizard

[mb018538]

Things definitely look better than a couple of days ago. The low pressure isn't now forecast to make much of an impression at all....one look at the accumulated ppn over the next 10 days shows this:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018051100/240-777UK.GIF?11-0

Western Scotland and Ireland wetter as you'd expect being closer to the low, but only 5-20mm widely across the rest of the country. Temps around average.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 00z next week looks pretty good further south with plenty of azores ridging, a bit more unsettled across the far nw / n and longer term it's a nationwide warm anticyclonic spell which would become very warm / hot..what an end to spring this would be!

[Weathizard]

Quite the difference between the UKMO and the other 2 for a week today.

[Summer Sun]

00z ICON has high pressure close by as we move through next week

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the Gfs 00z next week looks pretty good further south with plenty of azores ridging, a bit more unsettled across the far nw / n and longer term it's a nationwide warm anticyclonic spell which would become very warm / hot..what an end to spring this would be!

The good news is Frosty....although by the end of the run the GFS op is the warmest ensemble member, it's not a total outlier as there are a number of warm runs starting to appear as we head into the last 10 days of May. Mean above average, and not much ppn shown either. High pressure the form horse at the moment.

[Man With Beard]

Models this morning thinking that less ridging will go north. Instead, back to idea of a couple of days ago - another Azores/Scandi link-up. Could go warm again for a while. Difficult to see too far ahead with so much flip-flopping though.

  

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z mean extended range continues to show a warm anticyclonic  end to spring nationwide..hope it's right!

Edited May 11, 2018 by Frosty.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

ECM 00z  FI turns into a horror show. Run generally good for SE but less so for N and the run ends with a vile 984mb dartboard low sat just North of Scotland throwing Autumn right into our face. Not what you'd expect to see at the end of Spring.   .  

 

 

 

GFS was far more settled with another three day scorcher bank holiday weekend. 

Edited May 11, 2018 by 38.5*C

[Frosty.]

Some charts worth posting from the Gfs 6z low res with warmth and high pressure. Next week looks a dog's breakfast with the exception being tuesday which looks the best day with temps into the low 20's celsius across southern uk.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, next week doesn't look bad, at least across the southern half of the uk with some nice azores ridging and tuesday in particular looks a fine warm day for most of the uk. Longer term looks even better with high pressure building in strongly during late May bringing a nationwide fine warm spell..late May could bring a warm / very warm spell.

[Mike Poole]

Eyes down for the 12s then, and a big improvement in outlook over the last day or to with the spectre of a summer Greenland high receding, and instead a fairly strong signal for warm settled weather, punctuated by the odd slightly unsettled spell for the UK.  ICON illustrates the picture quite well:

Edited May 11, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Summer Sun]

A lot of next week looks fairly settled according to 12z UKMO

[Summerstorm]

Pleasant start to the midday runs so far with the UKMO going for settled weather from the middle of next week. Also whoops Gavin already beat me to it lol so delete my post please mods 

 

Edited May 11, 2018 by Summerstorm

[Summer Sun]

6 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Pleasant start to the midday runs so far with the UKMO going for settled weather from the middle of next week. Also whoops Gavin already beat me to it lol so delete my post please mods 

 

1

Don't worry you get dozens of posts on the same thing during the winter months

[Weathizard]

Can't post charts ATM but looking at the latest GFS it looks a clear early move to the last few ICON runs which made a lot less of that low pressure system around day 5.

Fair play to the minnow.

[Mike Poole]

One or two highlights from the GFS 12z:

T84:

T204:

T348, sacrebleu!

Obviously this is well into the never never, but nice to see.  Think I prefer the GEM evolution, at T198, might last a bit this one?

Edit: well at least until the end of the run!

Edited May 11, 2018 by Mike Poole

[mb018538]

Thankfully the horror runs from a few days have gone away, the massive northern blocks have receded away, and it doesn’t look too bad. Never overly warm with where the high is building in from, but pleasant enough for sure.

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

One or two highlights from the GFS 12z:

T84:

T204:

T348, sacrebleu!

Obviously this is well into the never never, but nice to see.  Think I prefer the GEM evolution, at T198, might last a bit this one?

Edit: well at least until the end of the run!

Yes things have definitely improved compared to recently, next week doesn't look bad at all, quite pleasant at times and further ahead continues to show plenty of promise for an increasingly warm anticyclonic spell.

[Mike Poole]

GEFS 12z with a huge signal for UK high even as late as T300:

And that's the mean. Spread, standard deviation, whatever you want to call it, telling too:

Low uncertainty over the UK. Usually the UK is exactly where the uncertainty is, but no, it's further north where the jet stream is!

[Frosty.]

3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, next week doesn't look bad, at least across the southern half of the uk with some nice azores ridging and tuesday in particular looks a fine warm day for most of the uk. Longer term looks even better with high pressure building in strongly during late May bringing a nationwide fine warm spell..late May could bring a warm / very warm spell.

 

I could say pretty much the same about the GEFS 12z mean which early next week looks mainly dry and warm with sunny spells, especially tuesday, there is a bit of a midweek wobble but then the azores high starts to ridge in again, at least across southern uk, anything unsettled is mainly restricted to the far NW and eventually all of the uk settles down with high pressure building in strongly bringing increasingly summery conditions for the end of the meteorological spring..fingers crossed! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 11, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

ECM well, nice UK high T144:

It looks quite strange after this, with this big low blowing up in the Atlantic, T216:

T240:

Anyway if we do get to this point, this looks to me as though it might have some longevity for the UK warmth like the GEM earlier.  We'll see!

Edited May 11, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM well, nice UK high T144:

It looks quite strange after this, with this big low blowing up in the Atlantic, T216:

T240:

This looks to me as though it might have some longevity for the UK warmth like the GEM earlier.  We'll see!

Turned out pretty good mike, especially across the southern half of the uk with plenty of high pressure / ridging and warm at times with sunny periods and generally light winds.

Edited May 11, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

Bonus post! There's a GFS parallel on the go! Here's the second half of it, T192 to T384:

Just that little bit more evidence that we are headed towards a memorable warm spell for the UK.  Not worth much on its own but add it to the other output today and indeed last night, and I think we can look forward to some nice summer weather with increased confidence. 

Edited May 11, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Summer Sun]

Quite a turn around in the past few days just as it looked like high pressure would build north of the UK it now looks like it will be lower pressure instead meaning a settled spell for the UK