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phil nw.

Model output discussion 14/04/18

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Surprised how flat it is in here considering the great bank holiday weekend weather that's on the way, at least for england and wales..tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks an absolute peach in the reliable timeframe..looking forward to another early taste of summer!👍⛱️☺️

ECMAVGEU12_48_2.png

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ECMAVGEU12_72_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_72_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_96_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_96_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Looks a bit unclear from the models midweek whether the trough sits to the west and throws a ridge to the east or if the trough will exert its influence over the Uk

Edited by Matthew.

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Yes Frosty, amazing how people will sometimes ignore what's under their nose and instead focus on unsettled weather in FI.

This was the reason for my previous post expressing frustration at certain posters for emphasising 'cold and wet' conditions for the next week. This can be misleading for new members who may have no idea there is a lovely warm spell coming this weekend.

Low to mid 20s quite widely on Monday which looks to be the pick of the days for most. From then on it depends whether you believe the ECM or GFS as to the scale of any breakdown. The GFS continues to back a more unsettled solution (it has backed down somewhat from a couple of days ago though) while the ECM suggests a rebuild of high pressure in FI.

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Monday could be record-breaking for the right reasons 23.7c or higher will make it the hottest May day bank holiday on record

90-582UK.thumb.GIF.b74fbbae55c0de5a4a1a2d170425d409.GIF

🌞🌡️😎

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Monday could be record-breaking for the right reasons 23.7c or higher will make it the hottest May day bank holiday on record

90-582UK.thumb.GIF.b74fbbae55c0de5a4a1a2d170425d409.GIF

🌞🌡️😎

Looks a certainty to me SS. I'd guess we will see a 26c somewhere. Low pressure doesn't look like it will barrel across the country either, perhaps getting stuck out west and veering to the north instead.

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Monday could be record-breaking for the right reasons 23.7c or higher will make it the hottest May day bank holiday on record

90-582UK.thumb.GIF.b74fbbae55c0de5a4a1a2d170425d409.GIF

🌞🌡️😎

First 5 days of May 1990 saw temps hit 26c everyday somewhere in the UK but it cooled a bit for the Bank Holiday Monday which like this year was on the 7th so its not impossible for warmth around the Bank Holiday w/e.The models are coming on leaps and bounds having so far this year shown early, two cold spells,one heatwave and im sure this weekend will be another correct outcome

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1)  Hottest April day for 70 years

2)  Hottest London marathon on record

3)  Models showing possibility of hottest ever May Day bank holiday.....

ECM for 07/05/2018                                  UKMO for 07/05/2018

image.thumb.png.876c7c168fbb57d31e508543647ae77b.png   image.thumb.png.97e720d345aebeaedf4c0adb47171cec.png

Am I sensing a trend here, or is it wishful thinking?  Could even more temperature records be broken this summer?  Maybe we could even coin a name for this phenomenon - something like 'world heating' perhaps.  Or is there already a name for it?

 

Edited by Sky Full
.

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Don't forget the coldest March day on record as well.

As much as I'd like a repeat of 1976, I'd be happy if we managed to even scrape average sunshine this summer. If the year ends average it'll be a miracle.

Edited by B87

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4 hours ago, B87 said:

Don't forget the coldest March day on record as well.

As much as I'd like a repeat of 1976, I'd be happy if we managed to even scrape average sunshine this summer. If the year ends average it'll be a miracle.

It's also been one of coldest April's too overall, I don't think I've ever had heating on as much for time of year.

I know we had that mini heatwave but it was very short lived. 

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As I mentioned yesterday, I'm very interested in the potential for real summery weather in June, with the models, and Met Office update suggesting warm spells interspersed with unsettled spells in May - hot weather with thundery outbreaks looks a natural evolution of this pattern if the average jet stream position moves north.  So I'm looking for model evidence of this, and as it's beyond the main models, the CFS into June is relevant.  

So I'm keeping my eye on this, looking at evidence of this sort of weather, not at any particular date, that can't be predicted this far out, but is the model showing this at any point in the next month or so.  Here from the 9 month 6z for the beginning of June:

tempresult_cjh1.gif

Will provide updates on this if there's interest, as my expectations for summer are very much on the up as things stand.

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cold.thumb.png.8727ee44ac7bb9aefca5234d35c0f225.pngSome chilly daytime maxes for third week of May on the GFS 12z it was a cold outlier from mid-month with maxes in places dropping to about 7C below average.  :cold:

 

cold.png

colder.png

Edited by 38.5*C

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Silence re the 12s, let's put that right.  Well it looks like the bank holiday heat will give way to less settled conditions for a while, but what next, a look at T240:

ECM bullish about another warm settled spell:

ECM1-240.GIF?04-0

ECM0-240.GIF?04-0

Maybe thunder chance in the south on this one.

GEM:

gem-0-240.png?12

Maybe the high a little too east but I think the important thing is the amplified pattern.

GFS:

gfs-0-240.png?12

This one looking less settled.  So the picture continues: warm periods, less settled periods, but no really nasty weather.  All good and power to build.

Edit, charts still won't enlarge when clicked on after software update, irritating, hope you can read them anyway.

Edited by Mike Poole

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Looking at ECM this morning next week it looks like the bulk of the rain will be the further west you are ROI, Northern Ireland and NW Scotland, for example, look like prime spots the further south and east you are the less rain you'll see

ECMWF_120_EU_SFC_en-US_eu.thumb.png.365e5447d66d21846bcd26d8bcf0b054.pngECMWF_156_EU_SFC_en-US_eu.thumb.png.297e7c2485f0df9a1589a4a6ceeb717e.pngECMWF_174_EU_SFC_en-US_eu.thumb.png.83329ccc6793a11391437e04a0135ed1.png

Edited by Summer Sun

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Good morning Gang ,i havent posted much lately but been Lurking , great to see some summery weather forecasted by the charts .I do have a hunch that the next month or so will see big swings ,but lets hope the summer overall is one of BBQS ,Thunderstorms , and STELLA on ice , followed by a nice Autumn then the Winter from Hell ,i usually pop in here for a read most days , Thanks for all the great posts , cheers Legritter :gathering::yahoo:.

 

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11 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Not liking this recurring deep low on the GFS next Friday, 970mb seems unseasonably deep for May :help:

image.png

A few days after that low the jet stream moves north allowing pressure to build

GFSOPEU06_168_1.thumb.png.2b43e682251caf96752e40c2d967226d.pngGFSOPEU06_192_1.thumb.png.70eef93d681050d055e9a1465cdeabe5.pngGFSOPEU06_216_1.thumb.png.8c6a9b2ae1953b8a5548065af964b985.png

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Glorious weather today!!

Interesting GFS 6z today post T192, starting to show northerly jet stream and anticyclonic dominated weather.  I really think this summer has a chance of being a memorable one, well the early part of it anyway!

tempresult_efo5.gif

GEM 0z headed towards a good place too.

gem-0-240.png?00

ECM good too at T240

ECM1-240.GIF?05-12

Edited by Mike Poole

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GFS longer term similar to the 6z, jet steam to the north, decent weather to us, here from T192:

tempresult_bwm8.gif

tempresult_fee4.gif

All good after the unsettled blip mid next week, according to GFS of course.

This mean chart at T360 is also sending a pretty strong signal in my view:

gens-21-1-360.png?12

Edited by Mike Poole

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There's good news from the GEFS 12z mean in the mid / longer term (as per the 6z mean) with a blocked pattern returning following a more changeable / unsettled atlantic blip..the mean shows the azores high and scandi high teaming up with the jet pushed well to the n / nw and predominantly settled and warm weather for the uk...fingers crossed!☺️

Edited by Frosty.

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Here's the ECM 12z in full, showing the unsettled period earlier next week, followed by a resurgence of high pressure, this run maybe getting a touch far north, meaning the potential for thunder in the south, the detail will change but the consistent signal from all models to push the jet stream north is what gives optimism that this may be a different sort  of summer than recent years.  Very interesting model watching, has been all spring if I'm honest.

tempresult_qkq2.gif

Edit, this was supposed to be an animated GIF, thwarted by software, here's the final frame although I expect it won't enlarge if you click it.  Hmmmm.

ECM1-240.GIF?05-0

Further edit: confused reaction justified, I would like the Software sorted out, please. Thanks.

Edited by Mike Poole

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Looking at the Gem 12z there's plenty of fine and very warm weather to enjoy tomorrow, monday, tues & for the southeast and east anglia..wednesday too with a risk of a few thunderstorms on tues / wed for parts of the s / se too..very summery perfect BH weather in the next few days across the southern half of the uk!..enjoy🌩️☺️⛱️🌞

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Edited by Frosty.

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48 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Here's the ECM 12z in full, showing the unsettled period earlier next week, followed by a resurgence of high pressure, this run maybe getting a touch far north, meaning the potential for thunder in the south, the detail will change but the consistent signal from all models to push the jet stream north is what gives optimism that this may be a different sort  of summer than recent years.  Very interesting model watching, has been all spring if I'm honest.

tempresult_qkq2.gif

Edit, this was supposed to be an animated GIF, thwarted by software, here's the final frame although I expect it won't enlarge if you click it.  Hmmmm.

ECM1-240.GIF?05-0

Further edit: confused reaction justified, I would like the Software sorted out, please. Thanks.

Sorry for another post, edit timeout on last one. Apologies if last comment was worded rather shortly (I can't delete it now)  but please could you look at the issues that the new software is causing re including charts, I have posted this in the help thread, but as yet no solution. Many thanks, Mike.

Edited by Mike Poole

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